MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.89 Support Key Once More

*RES 4: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 160.02 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.30

*SUP 1: 158.91 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 158.89 Low Apr 5

*SUP 3: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 158.89-159.69 continues with daily studies

correcting from O/B. Bulls look for a close above 159.69 to kick start topside

momentum and above 160.26 to initially target 160.98 Dec highs. Bears now need a

close below 158.89 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA & pressure 158.12-53 where

the bull channel base, and 100-DMA are situated. Overall below the 55-DMA

(157.27) hints at a move back to 2018 lows.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 21-DMA Supporting On Dips

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.240 High Apr 6 

*RES 1: 131.210 100-WMA (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.150

*SUP 1: 130.985 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.803 55-WMA

*SUP 3: 130.800 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support on dips with the 130.760-985

support region key this week. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and below 130.760 to shift initial focus back to 130.362-510

where the 55-DMA and bull channel base off Feb lows are noted. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 131.310 to kick start bullish momentum and initially

focus on 131.450-572 where the bull channel top is noted.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 2: 111.988 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.920

*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: 111.858 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 111.854 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 21-DMA (111.923) with bulls needing a

close above 111.945 to confirm traction above and shift initial focus back to

111.988-990 where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears continue to look for a close

below 111.855 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and hint at a move back to the

55-DMA (111.796) with below 111.830 to confirm a break of the channel base

(111.855) and add weight to the case.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bounces From Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 2: 122.84 High Apr 11 

*RES 1: 122.12 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.05

*SUP 1: 121.61 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 121.34 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.21 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 121.04 Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base off Feb lows confirmed significance

last week with the contract bouncing from ahead Friday to flirt with the 21-DMA.

Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and hint at a

bounce back to 122.84-123.05 where Apr highs so far are found. Bears now look

for a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to 119.29-83 with below

120.69 to confirm.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 21-DMA Capping

*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 99.126 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.095

*SUP 1: 99.095 Low Apr 13

*SUP 2: 99.075 2018 Low Apr 4

*SUP 3: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.003 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 lows is now struggling having remained

capped ahead of the 21-DMA and the 99.126-150 resistance region. Bulls look for

a close above 99.150 to shift focus back to 99.185-220 where the 55-DMA (99.185)

is noted. Bears need a close below 99.095 to gain breathing room and below

99.060 to reconfirm the bearish bias and maintain focus on 98.930 April 2016

monthly lows.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Above 100.305 To Target 100.320-340

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.276 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.268 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs has taken its toll with the

contract flirting with the 21-DMA (100.298). Bears continue to look for a close

below 100.285 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. 55 & 100-DMAs are noted

100.268-276 with a close below the 100-DMA still needed to end bearish hopes and

to shift initial focus back to 100.250. Bulls need a close above 100.305 to

target 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 120-11

*RES 4: 121-12  High Apr 2

*RES 3: 121-05  High Apr 4

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12

*PRICE: 120-14 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 120-00+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: The closes below the 55-DMA (120-14+) sees immediate pressure back

on 120-11. Bears look for a close below 120-11 to confirm traction below DMAs &

shift focus back to 119-14/21+. Resistance layers are accumulating with bulls

now needing a close above Y120-24 to gain breathing room. Above 121-12 is needed

to kick start topside momentum and initially target 121-25+/122-02 where the

100-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.859 To Target 2018 High

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.859 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 2.730 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally and bullish close Thursday saw bulls gain

breathing room and pressure return to 2.859. The 2.859 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018

highs. Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears look for a close

below 2.799 to gain breathing room and return initial focus to 2.717-748 where

the Bollinger band base is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3523.28 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 3511.14 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 3494.45 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 3483.53 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3476.21 High Feb 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3448.00

*SUP 1: 3428.76 Hourly support Apr 13 

*SUP 2: 3411.63 Low Apr 11 

*SUP 3: 3399.97 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Friday which is a concern when

combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B & daily momentum

divergence. The 3476.21-3523.28 resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above

3523.28 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and the 55-WMA (3516.69) and to shift

focus back to 2018 & 2017 highs. Bears need a close below 3383.17 to shift focus

back to 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]