MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 3: 159.55 High Apr 18

*RES 2: 159.42 High May 7

*RES 1: 159.05 Low May 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.91

*SUP 1: 158.78 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 158.38 Low Apr 30

*SUP 3: 157.96 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 159.55-69 resistance region has resulted in

a correction back to the 21-DMA. Bears still need a close below the 21-DMA to

gain breathing room and below 158.38 to shift initial focus back to 157.34-43.

Correcting modestly O/B studies are a concern for bulls. Bulls now look for a

close above 159.69 to reconfirm a bullish bias and shift initial focus to

160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Layers Of Support Remain 130.510-780

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.334 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 1: 131.250 High May 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.090

*SUP 1: 130.977 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.880 Low May 3

*SUP 3: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 4: 130.765 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 131.310 Apr highs is less than ideal

for bulls with daily studies at modestly O/B levels. Bears now need a close

below 130.880 to shift focus to layers of support 130.510-780 where the bull

channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above

131.310 to target the 131.506-928 region where the 200-WMA and bull channel top

are located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Topside Hesitation Less Than Ideal

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 2: 111.941 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.940 High May 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915

*SUP 1: 111.900 Low Nay 4 

*SUP 2: 111.875 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 3: 111.864 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: With bulls currently focused on a break of 111.945 needed to

confirm initial focus on 111.990 topside hesitation is less than ideal. Initial

support is now noted at 111.900 but bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Below 111.805 is then needed to confirm a

break of the 100-DMA (100.818) and shift immediate focus to 111.715. The

Bollinger top remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Hesitating Ahead Of Apr High

*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance

*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 2: 122.94 High May 4 

*RES 1: 122.90 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.56

*SUP 1: 122.06 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 121.67 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. Rejection ahead of the top of this range leaves the contract looking

heavy and risks a move back to 120.69. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to

ease bullish pressure and below 121.49 to confirm focus on 120.69. Below 120.69

is needed to confirm focus on 119.29 Feb lows. Bulls need a close above 123.03

to initially target 123.78.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 99.265

*RES 4: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 3: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*RES 2: 99.310 High Feb 7

*RES 1: 99.293 200-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.270

*SUP 1: 99.265 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*SUP 3: 99.229 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with O/B daily studies are

a concern for bulls. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to shift focus to

99.340-370 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now look for a close below 99.265

to gain breathing room and below 99.210 to confirm traction below the 100-DMA

and initially target 99.145-160.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Focused On 100.320-340

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.301 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr

*SUP 3: 100.290 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Having found support at 100.295 bulls took comfort in fresh 2018 &

19mth highs with immediate focus now on 100.320-340. Bulls have room to move

before studies become O/B. Bears now need a close below 100.295 to ease bullish

pressure and to shift initial focus back to 100.273-290 where 55 & 100-DMAs and

the bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 119-08 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 120-06+ High Apr 19

*RES 3: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance

*RES 2: 119-24+ 21-DMA

*RES 1: 119-19  Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 119-11 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-08  Low May 2

*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: M18 is looking offered with pressure having returned to the 119-08

support. Bears need a close below 119-08 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

return initial focus to 2018 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above

Y120-06+ to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (120-05+), initially target a

correction back to 120-20+/24 and above 120-24 to shift focus to 121-01+/12 with

the 100-DMA at 121-00+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Back On 3.041-073

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.997 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards the 21-DMA Friday saw a pop

back above 2.996 and focus having returned to the 3.041-073 resistance region.

Daily studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 3.073 to confirm traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and

target 3.219-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a

close below 2.937 to ease bullish pressure.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3584.82 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3570.95 High Feb 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3557.88

*SUP 1: 3540.14 Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 3523.00 Low May 3 

*SUP 3: 3513.61 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in gains with immediate focus on 3570.95. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 3570.95 to reconfirm the bullish bias and

above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs. Support layers building add to

bullish confidence with bears continuing to look for a close below the 200-DMA

to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back

to 3383.17-3435.58 where the 55-DMA (3432.93) is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]