MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.90 & 159.69 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 3: 159.55 High Apr 18

*RES 2: 159.42 High May 7

*RES 1: 159.28 High May 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.92

*SUP 1: 158.38 Low Apr 30

*SUP 2: 158.13 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 157.90 100-DMA, Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 4: 157.43 Low Mar 24

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 159.55-69 resistance region resulted in a

correction and dip below the 21-DMA (158.76) with focus now on 157.90. Bears now

look for a close below 157.90 to confirm breaks of the channel base, 55 &

100-DMAs and initially pressure 157.34-43. Correcting modestly O/B studies

remain a concern for bulls. Bulls look for a close above 159.69 to reconfirm a

bullish bias and shift initial focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 131.310

*RES 4: 131.349 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.250 High May 3 

*RES 1: 131.180 High May 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.070

*SUP 1: 130.950 Low May 9

*SUP 2: 130.880 Low May 3

*SUP 3: 130.834 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*SUP 4: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 131.310 Apr highs is less than ideal

for bulls with daily studies at modestly O/B levels. Bears still need a close

below 130.880 to shift focus to layers of support 130.510-834 where the bull

channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above

131.310 to target the 131.493-997 region where the 200-WMA and bull channel top

are located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.947 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.940 High May 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915

*SUP 1: 111.885 Low May 9, Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 111.875 Low Apr 27, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 4: 111.805 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: With bulls currently focused on a break of 111.945 needed to

confirm initial focus on 111.990, topside hesitation is less than ideal. Initial

support is noted at 111.885 but bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Below 111.805 is needed to confirm a

break of the 100-DMA (100.812) and shift immediate focus to 111.715. The Bolli

top remains the key concern for bulls who look for a close above 111.945.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.947 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.940 High May 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915

*SUP 1: 111.885 Low May 9, Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 111.875 Low Apr 27, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 4: 111.805 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: With bulls currently focused on a break of 111.945 needed to

confirm initial focus on 111.990, topside hesitation is less than ideal. Initial

support is noted at 111.885 but bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Below 111.805 is needed to confirm a

break of the 100-DMA (100.812) and shift immediate focus to 111.715. The Bolli

top remains the key concern for bulls who look for a close above 111.945.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Focus On 99.340-370

*RES 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 2: 99.344 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.310

*SUP 1: 99.290 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.250 Low May 9

*SUP 3: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*SUP 4: 99.229 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA came to an end with an aggressive

rally and bullish close that sees immediate focus now on 99.340-370 where 2018

highs are located. O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now

need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and hint at a correction

back to 99.210-240 where the 100-DMA is situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.291 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 3: 100.274 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 100.320-340 resistance region is taking its

toll with pressure back on the 55-DMA which confirmed significance Thursday.

Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm a shift in initial focus back

to 100.274-275 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close above 100.305

to gain breathing room and above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-06+

*RES 4: 120-06+ High Apr 19

*RES 3: 120-04+ 55-DMA

*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance

*RES 1: 119-19+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 119-14 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-06  Low May 9

*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Follow through below 119-08 was lacking but bears take comfort in

the bounce remaining capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above

120-06+ to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and to shift initial focus back to

120-20+/24. Bears now look for a close below 118-31 to add weight to the case

for a test of the weekly bear channel base coming in around 117-07+ today. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Now Key Support

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.966 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.948 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support, 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher with focus

back on 3.041-073. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.073 to confirm

traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target 3.219-232 where the weekly

bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close below 2.937 to ease bullish

pressure. Overall below the 55-DMA (2.876) is needed to shift initial focus back

to 2.814.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3600.36 Targets 2018 High

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3595.47 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3574.09 High May 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3565.52

*SUP 1: 3549.26 Low May 10 

*SUP 2: 3540.14 Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 3523.00 Low May 3 

*SUP 4: 3514.87 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the break of 3570.95 but bulls

take comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears continue to look for a close

below 3540.14 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA to target a

correction back to 3464.35. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is less than

ideal. In saying that, bulls look for a close above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus

on 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]