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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

15 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) Bull Channel Base Supporting For Now
*RES 4: 159.42 High May 7
*RES 3: 159.28 High May 8
*RES 2: 158.79 Low May 11 now resistance
*RES 1: 158.57 Hourly resistance May 14
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.27
*SUP 1: 158.18 Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 157.88 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 157.43 Low Mar 24
*SUP 4: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*COMMENTARY: The bull channel base off Feb 15 lows confirmed significance and
supports. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to confirm immediate focus on
157.34-43 with below 157.34 to initially target 156.22. Daily studies are well
placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance accumulating adds weight to
the bearish case. Bulls now look for a close above 158.79 to gain breathing room
and above 159.69 to shift focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bull Channel Base Supporting For Now
*RES 4: 159.42 High May 7
*RES 3: 159.28 High May 8
*RES 2: 158.79 Low May 11 now resistance
*RES 1: 158.57 Hourly resistance May 14
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.27
*SUP 1: 158.18 Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 157.88 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 157.43 Low Mar 24
*SUP 4: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*COMMENTARY: The bull channel base off Feb 15 lows confirmed significance and
supports. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to confirm immediate focus on
157.34-43 with below 157.34 to initially target 156.22. Daily studies are well
placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance accumulating adds weight to
the bearish case. Bulls now look for a close above 158.79 to gain breathing room
and above 159.69 to shift focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Lacks Follow Through Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 111.946 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 
*RES 2: 111.940 High May 4 
*RES 1: 111.900 Hourly resistance May 14
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.880
*SUP 1: 111.855 Low May 14 
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 
*SUP 3: 111.809 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: 111.805 Low Mar 9
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has resulted in a sell-off Monday and a dip
below the 55-DMA (111.878). The Bollinger base is noted at 111.843 and is the
key concern for bears. Bears continue to look for a close below 111.805 to
confirm traction below the 100-DMA and immediate focus on 111.715. Daily studies
are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above 111.900 to
ease bearish pressure. Above 111.945 is needed to initially target 111.990.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues
*RES 4: 123.03 High Apr 4 
*RES 3: 122.94 High May 4 
*RES 2: 122.80 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 122.50 High May 10
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.77
*SUP 1: 121.49 High Apr 26 now support 
*SUP 2: 121.11 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 
*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 
*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21
*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03
range. M18 is now flirting with the 55-DMA (121.79). Bears continue to look for
a close below 121.49 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to pressure
120.69-121.11 where the bull channel base is noted. Below 120.69 is needed to
target 119.29 Feb lows. Bulls still need a close above 123.03 to initially
target 123.84.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*RES 3: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3
*RES 2: 99.352 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.305
*SUP 1: 99.289 200-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.250 Low May 9
*SUP 3: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May
*SUP 4: 99.228 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA came to an end with an aggressive
rally and bullish close that sees immediate focus now on 99.340-370 where 2018
highs are located. O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now
need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and hint at a correction
back to 99.210-240 where the 100-DMA is situated.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Focus Shifts To 100-DMA
*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 
*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 
*RES 1: 100.301 - 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290
*SUP 1: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 2: 100.274 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar
*SUP 4: 100.252 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in a
marginal close below the 55-DMA (100.292) and the daily bull channel base off
2018 lows. Immediate focus now shifts to the 100-DMA with a close below needed
to target the 200-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 100.305 to ease bearish
pressure and above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 118-31 Support Key
*RES 4: 120-06+ High Apr 19
*RES 3: 120-03+ 55-DMA
*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance
*RES 1: 119-17+ 21-DMA
*PRICE: 119-05 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25
*SUP 2: 118-24  ow Apr 13 2011
*SUP 3: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011
*SUP 4: 117-07+ Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Follow through below 119-08 was lacking but bears take comfort in
the bounce remaining capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above
120-06+ to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and shift initial focus back to
120-20+/24. Bears now look for a close below 118-31 to add weight to the case
for a test of the weekly bear channel base coming in around 117-07+ today. Daily
studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Now Key Support
*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 
*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*PRICE: 3.001 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.957 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 2.937 - Low May 7 
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 4: 2.879 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher with focus
back on 3.041-073. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.073 to confirm
traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target 3.219-232 where the weekly
bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close below 2.937 to confirm a break
of the 21-DMA & ease bullish pressure. Overall below the 55-DMA (2.879) is
needed to shift initial focus back to 2.814.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Topside Hesitation Less Than Ideal
*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 
*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3596.42 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 3574.09 High May 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3565.74
*SUP 1: 3549.26 Low May 10 
*SUP 2: 3540.14 Low May 7 
*SUP 3: 3523.00 Low May 3 
*SUP 4: 3515.46 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the break of 3570.95 but bulls
take comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears continue to look for a close
below 3540.14 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA to target a
correction back to 3464.35. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is less than
ideal. In saying that, bulls look for a close above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus
on 2018 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]