MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.37-79 Resistance Region Key Today

*RES 4: 158.79 Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 3: 158.50 High May 16

*RES 2: 158.48 21-DMA

*RES 1: 158.37 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.82

*SUP 1: 157.44 Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 157.43 Low Mar 24

*SUP 3: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that began with hesitation at 159.42 sees immediate

focus on 157.34-44. Bears continue to look for a close below 157.34 to shift

initial focus to 156.22 and overall focus back to 154.62-155.25 where 2018 lows

are noted. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now

need a close above 158.50 to ease bearish pressure and above 158.79 to initially

focus on 159.28-69 where monthly highs are located.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.510 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 131.310 High Apr 3, Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 131.250 High May 3 

*RES 2: 131.040 Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.010 High May 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.770

*SUP 1: 130.640 Low May 15

*SUP 2: 130.577 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.557 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.550 Low Apr 25

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 131.250 is now finding support ahead of the

100-DMA with bears currently focused on 130.510. Bears need a close below

130.510 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and to shift initial focus to 129.84

Mar lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a

close above 131.040 to gain breathing room and shift immediate focus back to

131.250-310.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 111.945

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6, Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.940 High May 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.885

*SUP 1: 111.870 Hourly resistance May 15 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.845 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 4: 111.807 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Rallies remain capped ahead of 111.940-945 with bulls needing a

close above 111.945 to shift initial focus back to 111.990. Initial support is

now noted at 111.870 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on

resistance layers. Overall bears need a close below 111.805 to confirm traction

below the 100-DMA and initially target 111.715-724 where the 200-WMA is noted.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 120.69

*RES 4: 122.80 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 122.50 High May 10 

*RES 2: 121.82 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 121.41 High May 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.00

*SUP 1: 120.89 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. The closes below the 55-DMA adds weight to the case for a test of the

120.69 support. Overall a close below 120.69 is needed to end broad sideways

trading and initially target 119.29 Feb lows. Bulls now need a close above

121.41 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to the

upper end of the 120.69-123.03 range.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.372 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 1: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan & May

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15

*SUP 2: 99.287 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.250 Low May 9

*SUP 4: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue for the contract with immediate pressure on the

99.340-370 resistance region where 2018 highs are located. Bulls look for a

close above 99.370 to initially target the 100-WMA (99.417) and then the LT bear

channel top (99.467) off Sept 2016 highs. Support layers are building with bears

now needing a close below 99.305 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA to

hint at a correction back to 99.210-240 where the 100-DMA is situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 

*RES 1: 100.298 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285

*SUP 1: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support, 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 3: 100.255 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.250 - Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in closes

below the 55-DMA (100.294) and the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows.

Immediate focus is now on the 100-DMA with a close below needed to target the

200-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 119-08+ 21-DMA

*RES 3: 119-07  High May 15

*RES 2: 118-31  Low Apr 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 118-25+ High May 16

*PRICE: 118-13+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 118-10+ 2018 Low May 17

*SUP 2: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 3: 117-22+ 2011 Low Feb 9

*SUP 4: 117-07+ Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation around the 21-DMA provided the impetus

for fresh 2018 & 7yr lows. Bears focus attention on the weekly bear channel base

coming in around 117-07+. Daily studies at O/S is less than ideal but layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above 118-31 to

ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to pressure 119-31/120-06+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.058

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.128 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.124 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.087 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: 3.058 - Low May 16 

*SUP 3: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 4: 2.996 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated fresh 2018 & 7yr highs continue with bulls initially

focused on 3.184-3.249 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls with the

Bollinger top (3.110) also a concern. Bears now look for a close below 3.058 to

gain breathing room and below 3.011 to shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the

55-DMA (2.894) is located.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3600.36 Targets 2018 High

*RES 4: 3687.22 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 3662.86 Low Jan 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance, Bollinger top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3592.18

*SUP 1: 3574.09 High May 10 now support 

*SUP 2: 3549.26 Low May 10 

*SUP 3: 3540.14 Low May 7 

*SUP 4: 3523.00 Low May 3

*COMMENTARY: Lackluster sideways trading that had defined the week came to an

end with a rally and bullish close Thursday that adds support to the case for a

move targeting 2018 highs with above 3600.36 needed to confirm. Layers of

support add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close below 3574.09 to

gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus back to

3464.35. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is less than ideal.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]