MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

23 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 159.69

*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 2: 159.61 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 159.50 High May 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.06

*SUP 1: 158.74 Low May 22

*SUP 2: 158.55 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 158.49 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 157.61 Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 159.69 is less than ideal for bulls with the

Bollinger band top currently capping. Bulls need a close above 159.69 to confirm

a break of the 200-WMA (159.64) and to shift immediate focus to 160.26-98. The

158.49-74 support region where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted is key today. Bears now

need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

157.34-61. Daily studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 200-WMA Capping For Now

*RES 4: 131.820 2018 High Jan 8 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.447 200-WMA 

*RES 1: 131.430 High May 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.260

*SUP 1: 131.080 Low May 22

*SUP 2: 131.010 High May 17 now support

*SUP 3: 130.750 Low May 17

*SUP 4: 130.640 Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: The recovery that began last week with support emerging ahead of

the 100-DMA (130.585) sees pressure on the 200-WMA with the 2018 high noted

above. Bulls need a close above the 200-WMA to add support to the case for a

test of 131.820. Daily studies have room to move with the Bollinger top

(131.376) the key concern. Bears continue to look for a close below 131.010 to

shift focus back to 130.51-64 where the 100-DMA is noted.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On 55-WMA

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.051 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.970

*SUP 1: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.930 High May 17 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.870 Hourly resistance May 15 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.845 Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 111.945 finally took its toll with an aggressive break

higher that now sees immediate focus on the 55-WMA. Bulls then look for a close

above 112.065 to target 112.111-115 where the 100-WMA is noted. The 111.945

level remains initial support. Bears now need a close below this level to ease

bullish pressure and below 111.930 to shift focus back to 111.830-870.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 121.93

*RES 4: 122.94 High May 4 

*RES 3: 122.76 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 122.50 High May 10 

*RES 1: 121.93 High May 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.41

*SUP 1: 120.89 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: 120.69 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 3: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*SUP 4: 120.29 Low Feb 22

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. The rally to start the week saw pops above 55 & 100-DMAs (121.81-84) with

a close above 121.93 now needed to shift focus back to the upper end of the

defining 120.69-123.03 range. While 121.93 caps bears retain the advantage.

Overall a close below 120.69 is needed to end broad sideways trading to the

downside and initially target 119.29 Feb lows.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 99.325

*RES 4: 99.416 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.386 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.345

*SUP 1: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22

*SUP 2: 99.325 Low May 17

*SUP 3: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15

*SUP 4: 99.285 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 99.340 has taken its toll with closes above this level

that sees immediate focus on 99.370 and overall focus on 99.416-465 where the

100-WMA and weekly bear channel top are located. Initial support is now noted at

99.335 but bears look for a close below 99.325 to gain breathing room and below

the 200-DMA to hint at a correction back to 99.210-240 where the 100-DMA

(99.229) is situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.297 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows may

*SUP 2: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 3: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 4: 100.256 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in closes

below the 55-DMA (100.295) and the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows.

Immediate focus remains on 100.275 with a close below needed to target the

200-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Now Need Close Above 119-07

*RES 4: 120-06+ High Apr 19

*RES 3: 119-31+ High Apr 4

*RES 2: 119-30+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 119-07  High May 15

*PRICE: 118-30+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 118-19+ High May17 now support

*SUP 2: 118-10+ 2018 Low May 17

*SUP 3: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 4: 117-22+ 2011 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to end the week was less than ideal for bulls given

daily studies looking to correct from O/S and increases the risk of a correction

that tests the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 119-07 to confirm an easing

of bearish pressure and to shift initial focus to 119-30+/120-06+ where the

55-DMA is located. While 119-07 caps bears remain focused on the weekly bear

channel base around 116-30+ but need a close below 118-19.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.084 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 3: 3.145 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 3.128 - 2018 High May 18 

*RES 1: 3.084 - High May 21

*PRICE: 3.052 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.035 - High Apr 25 now support 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 3.006 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains offered having sold-off Friday from around the

daily bull channel top. Bears focus on the 21-DMA with a close below needed to

confirm a break of 3.011 and shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA

(2.904) is located. Bulls need a close above 3.084 to gain breathing room and

above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on 3.184-3.254

where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: 3687.22 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 3662.86 Low Jan 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3587.25

*SUP 1: 3566.53 Low May 18 

*SUP 2: 3551.12 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 3549.26 Low May 10 

*SUP 4: 3540.14 Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3600.36 continues with the Bollinger band top

noted just above at 3605.44. Bulls need a close above 3600.36 to confirm focus

on tests of 2018 highs (3687.22). Layers of support remain with bears now

looking for a close below 3566.53 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA

(3518.06) to shift focus back to 3460.07-3464.35 where the 55-DMA is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]