MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

24 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 161.29 55-WMA

*RES 3: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 2: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.84 High May 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.67

*SUP 1: 159.50 High May 21 now support

*SUP 2: 159.22 Hourly resistance May 23 now support

*SUP 3: 158.74 Low May 22

*SUP 4: 158.65 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bullish focus is now on the 160.26-161.29 region where

Dec monthly highs and 55-WMA are situated. The Bollinger top is the key concern

for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Bulls look for a close above

the 55-WMA to shift focus to 163.92 Dec highs. Bears now look for a close below

159.22 to gain breathing room and return pressure to 158.54-74 where 21 &

55-DMAs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Gaining Traction Above 200-WMA

*RES 4: 132.240 Lows Dec 14 & 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.980 High Dec 20 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.820 2018 High Jan 8 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 131.620 High May 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.540

*SUP 1: 131.443 200-WMA

*SUP 2: 131.430 High May 21 now support

*SUP 3: 131.310 Hourly resistance May 22 now support

*SUP 4: 131.080 Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: The recovery that began last week with support emerging ahead of

the 100-DMA (130.591) has resulted in the first close above the 200-WMA since

Dec 2017. Bulls now focus their attention on the 131.820-132.240 region where

levels last seen in Dec are located. Daily studies have room to move before O/B

is an issue. bears now need a close below 131.430 to gain breathing room and

hint at a correction back to 131.010-080.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On 55-WMA

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.052 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.020

*SUP 1: 111.990 Hourly resistance May 22 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.930 High May 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.870 Hourly resistance May 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 111.945 finally took its toll with an aggressive break

higher that now sees immediate focus on the 55-WMA. Bulls then look for a close

above 112.065 to target 112.111-115 where the 100-WMA is noted. 111.990 is now

noted as initial support with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room

and hint at a correction back to 111.901-945 where 21 (111.912) & 55 (111.901)

DMAs are located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Broad Range Trading Continues

*RES 4: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 3: 122.94 High May 4 

*RES 2: 122.80 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.50 High May 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.30

*SUP 1: 121.93 High May 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 121.28 Low May 22 

*SUP 3: 120.89 Low May 17 

*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. The rally to start the week saw pops above 55 & 100-DMAs (121.79-85) with

the close above 121.93 Wednesday shifting focus back to the upper end of the

defining 120.69-123.03 range. Bears now need a close below 131.93 to gain

breathing room. Bulls now need a close above 123.03 to initially target 123.57.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 99.416 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.393 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.385 2018 High May 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.360

*SUP 1: 99.345 Low May 23

*SUP 2: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22

*SUP 3: 99.325 Low May 17

*SUP 4: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lacked follow through which is less than ideal

given O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. In saying

that, bulls currently focus on 99.416-465 where the 100-WMA and weekly bear

channel top are located. Bears now look for a close below 99.345 to gain

breathing room and below 99.3325 to hint at a correction bac to 99.281-284 where

21 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.296 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285

*SUP 1: 100.276 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 3: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 4: 100.257 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in closes

below the 55-DMA (100.295) and the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows.

Immediate focus remains on 100.275 with a close below needed to target the

200-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Focus Shifts To 119-30+/120-06+

*RES 4: 120-06+ High Apr 19

*RES 3: 119-31+ High Apr 4

*RES 2: 119-30+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 119-24+ High May 7

*PRICE: 119-17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-07  Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 118-31  Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 118-19+ High May17 now support

*SUP 4: 118-10+ 2018 Low May 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has resulted in a close above the

21-DMA and 119-07 level with focus shifting to 119-30+/120-06+ where the 55-DMA

is located. Daily studies are well placed for further gains. Bears now look for

a close below 119-07 to ease bullish pressure and below 118-31 to shift focus

back to 2018 lows and then the weekly bear channel base coming in around 116-30+

today.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Closes Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: 3.002 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.979 @ 043GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.826 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains offered having sold-off Friday from around the

daily bull channel top with the close below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in

focus to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA is located. Correcting O/B studies add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above 3.050 to gain breathing

room and above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on

3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3566.53 Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3552.59 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3541.82

*SUP 1: 3523.00 Low May 3 

*SUP 2: 3518.43 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3501.11 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3485.72 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3600.36 has taken its toll with a sharp

sell-off and close below supports that sees immediate focus back on the 200-DMA.

Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus

back to 3463.47-3464.35 where the 55-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have

been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]