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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

25 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) 160.38 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 162.04 2018 High Jan 8 (Cont)
*RES 3: 161.29 55-WMA
*RES 2: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11
*RES 1: 160.38 High Mar 5 (Cont)
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.14
*SUP 1: 159.84 High May 23 now support
*SUP 2: 159.22 Hourly resistance May 23 now support
*SUP 3: 158.76 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 22
*COMMENTARY: Pressure is now on the 160.38 level with bulls now needing a close
above to confirm focus on the 55-WMA and then the 2018 high above. The Bollinger
band top (160.00) is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through. In
saying that, layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears
now need a close below 159.84 to gain breathing room and below 159.31 to shift
initial focus back to 158.50-76 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On 131.820-132.24
*RES 4: 132.240 Lows Dec 14 & 18 (Cont) 
*RES 3: 131.980 High Dec 20 (Cont) 
*RES 2: 131.820 2018 High Jan 8 (Cont) 
*RES 1: 131.750 High May 24
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.710
*SUP 1: 131.620 High May 23 now support
*SUP 2: 131.380 Low May 24
*SUP 3: 131.310 Hourly resistance May 22 now support
*SUP 4: 131.080 Low May 22
*COMMENTARY: The recovery that began last week with support emerging ahead of
the 100-DMA (130.599) has resulted in the first closes above the 200-WMA since
Dec 2017. Bulls focus their attention on the 131.820-132.240 region where levels
last seen in Dec are located. Daily studies have room to move before O/B is an
issue. Bears now need a close below 131.620 to gain breathing room and below
131.310 to hint at a correction back to 131.010-080.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On 55-WMA
*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 
*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 
*RES 2: 112.052 55-WMA 
*RES 1: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) & May 24
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.045
*SUP 1: 111.985 Low May 24 
*SUP 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 now support 
*SUP 3: 111.930 High May 17 now support 
*SUP 4: 111.870 Hourly resistance May 15 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 111.945 finally took its toll with an aggressive break
higher that now sees immediate focus on the 55-WMA. Bulls then look for a close
above 112.065 to target 112.112-115 where the 100-WMA is noted. 111.985 is now
noted as initial support with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room
and hint at a correction back to 111.905-945 where 21 (111.922) & 55 (111.905)
DMAs are located.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Focus Returns to 123.03
*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 
*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 
*RES 2: 122.94 High May 4 
*RES 1: 122.85 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.55
*SUP 1: 122.32 High May 23 now support 
*SUP 2: 121.93 High May 21 now support 
*SUP 3: 121.28 Low May 22 
*SUP 4: 120.89 Low May 17
*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03
range. Bulls take comfort as the pendulum swings back to the upper end of the
defining range. Bulls continue to look for a close above 123.03 to confirm a
break to the topside with immediate focus shifting to 123.57. Bears now need a
close below 121.93 to shift focus back to the 120.69-89 region.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 99.416 100-WMA
*RES 3: 99.396 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.385 2018 High May 23
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.365
*SUP 1: 99.345 Low May 23
*SUP 2: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22
*SUP 3: 99.325 Low May 17
*SUP 4: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lacked follow through which is less than ideal
given O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. In saying
that, bulls currently focus on 99.416-465 where the 100-WMA and weekly bear
channel top are located. Bears now look for a close below 99.345 to gain
breathing room and below 99.325 to hint at a correction bac to 99.284-290 where
21 & 200-DMAs are situated.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 
*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 
*RES 1: 100.296 - 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290
*SUP 1: 100.277 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 3: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar
*SUP 4: 100.257 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in
consolidation below the 55-DMA (100.295) and the daily bull channel base off
2018 lows. Immediate focus remains on 100.275 with a close below needed to
target the 200-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish
pressure and above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 118-31/119-07 Support Key
*RES 4: 120-06+ High Apr 19
*RES 3: 119-31+ High Apr 4
*RES 2: 119-30+ 55-DMA
*RES 1: 119-24+ High May 7
*PRICE: 119-13+ @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-07  Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: 118-31  Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 118-19+ High May17 now support
*SUP 4: 118-10+ 2018 Low May 17
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has resulted in closes above the 21-DMA
(119-08+) and 119-07 level with focus shifting to 119-30+/120-06+ where the
55-DMA is located. Daily studies are well placed for further gains. Bears now
look for a close below 119-07 to ease bullish pressure and below 118-31 to shift
focus back to 2018 lows and then the weekly bear channel base coming in around
116-30+ today.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.030-050 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 
*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 2: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 
*RES 1: 3.002 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: 2.992 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 
*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.832 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in closes below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in
focus to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA (2.907) is located. Correcting O/B studies
add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above 3.050 to gain breathing
room and above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on
3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Shifts To 3464.34-3466.45
*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1
*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3566.53 Low May 18 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3528.12 Low May 23 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3521.76
*SUP 1: 3509.91 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: 3486.03 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: 3466.45 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 3464.35 Low Apr 25
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the failures ahead of 3600.36 is gathering
momentum with a dip below the 200-DMA (3518.87) Thursday. Focus now shifts to
the 3464.35-3466.45 region where the 55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close
below 3464.35 to shift initial focus to 3383.17-3399.97. Layers of resistance
are building with bulls now needing a close above 3528.12 to gain breathing room
and above 3566.53 to pressure 3600.36 once more.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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