MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

13 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 162.15 High May 31

*RES 3: 161.75 High June 1

*RES 2: 160.68 Lows June 4 & 5 now resistance

*RES 1: 160.22 High June 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.85

*SUP 1: 159.37 Low June 12

*SUP 2: 159.22 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 158.23 High May 16 now support

*SUP 4: 157.89 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the 55-DMA with support continuing to

emerge just ahead. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm immediate

focus on 157.14-158.23 where the 100-DMA is noted with below 157.14 to target

154.33 Feb lows. Daily studies approaching O/S are the key concern for bears.

Initial resistance is now noted at 160.22 with bulls needing a close above to

gain breathing room and confirm a break above the 21-DMA (160.09).

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 131.340 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 131.860 High June 5 

*RES 3: 131.630 High June 8 

*RES 2: 131.340 High June 11 

*RES 1: 131.150 Hourly support June 11 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.070

*SUP 1: 130.900 Low June 12

*SUP 2: 130.810 Low May 24

*SUP 3: 130.722 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.590 Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: Losses so far this week see bearish focus currently on the

130.590-900 support region where the 55-DMA is located. Bears then look for a

close below 130.590 to initially pressure the 100-DMA (130.332) with overall

focus on 129.980 Apr lows. Bulls need a close above 131.340 to gain breathing

room and above 132.120 to return focus to 132.660-970 where 2018 highs are

noted. Daily studies approaching O/S is a concern for bears.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 111.975 Today

*RES 4: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 3: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 2: 112.015 Hourly support June 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.975 Hourly support June 11 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915

*SUP 1: 111.895 Low June 12 

*SUP 2: 111.825 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 111.800 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at 112.065 resulted in losses this week with bears

focused on 111.810-825 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Daily studies

approaching O/S is a concern for bears as layers of resistance accumulate. Bulls

now need a close above 111.975 to gain breathing room and above 112.065 to hint

at a move back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted with above 112.155 to

confirm. Bears now look for a close below 111.895 to add weight to their case.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 100-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 123.17 High June 1 

*RES 3: 122.51 High June 8 

*RES 2: 122.00 Hourly support June 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 121.86 High June 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.70

*SUP 1: 121.40 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 120.94 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 119.95 Monthly Low Apr 23 

*SUP 4: 119.65 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: A marginal dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Tuesday with

hesitation around the 55-DMA less than ideal. The 100-DMA is key support this

week. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and

to confirm immediate focus on 119.95 Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above

121.86 to gain breathing room and above 123.17 to return immediate focus to 2018

highs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 200-DMA & 99.260 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.346 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.240 High June 8, 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.240

*SUP 1: 99.187 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.138 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.131 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's highs has

resulted in the contract correcting lower. Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA

capping and now look for a close below the 200-DMA to confirm initial focus on

99.131-140 where key DMA and WMAs are noted. The 99.260 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

99.260 to return focus to 2018 highs.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.275 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 100.295 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: 100.290 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 100.275 - Low June 4 & 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.273 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.270

*SUP 1: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 2: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*SUP 3: 100.241 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 100.235 - Low May 31

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with the recovery from 2018 lows

remaining capped on approach. The failure ahead of the 55-DMA provided the

impetus for a sell-off and dips below the 200-DMA. Downside follow through has

been lacking with the recovery seeing pressure back on 100.275. Bulls need a

close above 100.275 to gain breathing room and above 100.295 to return focus to

2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below 100.265 to gain breathing room.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 118-30 & 120-00+ Key This Week

*RES 4: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 3: 120-00+ High June 7

*RES 2: 119-23  Hourly resistance June 8

*RES 1: 119-18+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 119-11 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-04  Low June 7

*SUP 2: 118-30  Low May 24

*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: The failure at 120-00+ last week left the contract looking offered

and focus on the 118-30/119-09+ support region where the 21-DMA (119-09+) is

situated. The 118-30 support remains key. Bears continue to look for a close

below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 2018

lows. Bulls need a close above 120-00+ to confirm traction above the 100-DMA and

add support to the case for a move back to 121-03/12+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884 & 3.014 Levels Key

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 1: 2.994 - High June 7

*PRICE: 2.960 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.944 - Low June 12 

*SUP 2: 2.921 - Hourly support June 8 

*SUP 3: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 4: 2.860 - Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 3.014 resulted in a sell-off last Thurs and

dips below the 55-DMA (2.918). Bears now need a close below 2.884 lows from

Thursday to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to return focus to 2.717-759 where

Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3.014 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (2.967) and target 2018 highs. Daily studies heading towards

O/B levels is a concern for bulls.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3497.32-3540.03 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 3540.03 High May 28 

*RES 3: 3520.15 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3499.72 21-DMA

*RES 1: 3497.32 High June 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3475.58

*SUP 1: 3454.12 High June 8 now support 

*SUP 2: 3422.03 Low June 8 

*SUP 3: 3420.84 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The 3497.32 resistance reconfirmed significance having capped

Tuesday with the 21 & 200-DMAs and 55-WMA (3410.91) just above. Bulls need a

close above the 200-DMA to initially hint at a move back to 3600.36 with above

3540.03 to confirm. Bears continue to look for a close below 3420.84 to return

focus to 3383.17 and below this level to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]