MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

15 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

     BUND TECHS: (U18) Hinting At Move To 163.03-164.19

*RES 4: 162.88 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 162.15 High May 31

*RES 2: 161.75 High June 1

*RES 1: 161.13 High June 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.85

*SUP 1: 160.64 Hourly support June 14

*SUP 2: 160.34 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 160.22 High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 159.37 Low June 12

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 55-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/S provided the catalyst for an aggressive rally and bullish

close that eased bearish pressure. Bulls now look for a close above 161.13 to

hint at a move back to 163.03-164.19 with a close above 162.15 to confirm. Bears

now need a close below 160.22 to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to

confirm immediate focus on 157.14-158.23 where the 100-DMA is noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Immediate Focus On 131.630-132.120

*RES 4: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 132.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 131.860 High June 5 

*RES 1: 131.630 High June 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.560

*SUP 1: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 2: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 130.756 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.590 Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA support confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce

from just ahead that sees focus back on the 131.630-132.120 resistance region.

Bulls now look for a close above 131.630 to hint at a move back to 132.660-970

with above 132.120 to confirm. Daily studies are perfectly placed for a fresh

leg higher. Bears now need a close below 131.190 to shift focus back to

130.590-756 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bulls Dominate While 111.940 Supports

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 1: 112.015 Hourly support June 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.000

*SUP 1: 111.971 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.865 Low June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.832 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Thursday bulls gained breathing room with

an aggressive rally and bullish close that sees focus back on 112.065-155. Bulls

now need a close above 112.065 to hint at a move back to 112.270-425 where 2018

highs are noted with above 112.155 to confirm. The 21-DMA is initial support but

bears now need a close below 111.940 to ease renewed bullish pressure and shift

focus back to 111.805-865 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Below 122.14 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 123.90 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 2: 123.17 High June 1 

*RES 1: 122.68 High June 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.45

*SUP 1: 122.14 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: 121.68 Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 3: 121.44 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 121.33 Low June 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip below the 55-DMA is gathering momentum as

daily studies supporting from O/S add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a

close below 122.14 to gain breathing room and below 121.33 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and hint at a move back to 119.95 with below the 100-DMA (120.95) to

confirm. Bulls now focus on 123.17-64 with a close above 123.64 to initially

target 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 99.242-260 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.347 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.242 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.230

*SUP 1: 99.210 Low June 14

*SUP 2: 99.200 Lows June6 - 8

*SUP 3: 99.184 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.145 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 200-DMA and

pressure remaining on 99.242-260. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to

gain breathing room and above 99.260 to return focus to 2018 highs. Layers of

support building is less than ideal as daily studies correct from O/S bears now

need a close below 99.210 to gain breathing room and below 99.200 to initially

pressure the 200-DMA.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Focus Back On 2018 High

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.306 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 100.289 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.281 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.273 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 100.245 has resulted in closes above key

resistance levels with bulls regaining the upper hand and immediate focus now

back on tests of 2018 highs. Fresh 2018 highs are needed to initially target

100.320. Daily studies at O/B levels are a concern for bulls. Bears now need a

close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to hint at

a move back to 100.245 with below the 200-DMA (100.263) confirming.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Making Headway Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 2: 120-00+ High June 7

*RES 1: 119-23  Hourly resistance June 8

*PRICE: 119-19 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-17+ 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 119-09  Hourly resistance June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 118-29  Low June 13

*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal break of the key 118-30

support with the contract lacking downside follow through. Bulls gain confidence

as the contract looks to gain traction above the 55-DMA with 120-00+ now key.

Bulls need a close above 120-00+ to add support to the case for a move back to

121-03/12+. Bears now need a close below 119-06 to gain breathing room and below

118-29+ to shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns To 2.884 Support

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 1: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.928 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 2: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: The 3.014 resistance reconfirmed significance with the yield capped

ahead of this level and remaining offered. The close below 2.944 confirms an

easing of bullish pressure and returns focus to 2.884. Below this level confirms

a break of the 55-DMA (2.924) and sees bears targeting 2.717-759 where Mar & May

lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA (2.953) and target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Shifts To 3540.03-3600.36

*RES 4: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3566.53 Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3560.56 High May 24

*RES 1: 3540.03 High May 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3527.11

*SUP 1: 3497.32 High June 5 now support 

*SUP 2: 3493.98 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3454.12 High June 8 now support 

*SUP 4: 3422.03 Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 200-DMA (3521.06) sees bulls regain the upper

hand and focus now on the 3540.03-3601.39 region where May highs are located.

Daily studies have a little room to move before O/B becomes an issue. The 21-DMA

is now key support. Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and hint

at a move back to 3383.17 with below 3454.12 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]