MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

19 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 162.70 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 162.15 High May 31

*RES 2: 161.75 High June 1

*RES 1: 161.52 High June 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.11

*SUP 1: 160.85 Hourly resistance June 15 now support

*SUP 2: 160.64 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 160.22 High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 159.36 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 55-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/S provided the catalyst for an aggressive rally that eased

bearish pressure last week. Bulls look for a close above 162.15 to confirm focus

on 163.03-164.19. Daily studies remain well placed for gains. Bears look for a

close below 160.22 to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to confirm

immediate focus on 157.14-158.23 where the 100-DMA (158.02) is noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.190-490 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 132.388 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 132.120 High May 31 

*RES 1: 131.860 High June 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.690

*SUP 1: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 2: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 130.799 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.590 Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA support confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce

from just ahead that sees focus back on the 131.860-132.120 resistance region.

Bulls now look for a close above 132.120 to confirm focus on a move back to

132.660-970. Daily studies remain perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears

now need a close below 131.190 to shift focus back to 130.590-799 where the

55-DMA is situated.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 1: 112.035 High June 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.990

*SUP 1: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.865 Low June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.840 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Thursday bulls gained breathing room with

an aggressive rally and bullish close that sees focus back on 112.065-155. Bulls

need a close above 112.065 to hint at a move back to 112.270-425 where 2018

highs are noted with above 112.155 to confirm. The 111.940 support remains key

this week. Bears need a close below 111.940 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

shift focus back to 111.810-865 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Below 122.14 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 123.84 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 2: 123.17 High June 1 

*RES 1: 122.92 High June 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.55

*SUP 1: 122.14 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: 121.68 Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 3: 121.49 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 121.33 Low June 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip below the 55-DMA is now hesitating ahead

of layers of resistance 123.17-64 with a close above 123.64 to initially target

124.67 while 122.14 supports. Bears still need a close below 122.14 to gain

breathing room and below 121.33 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and hint at a

move back to 119.95 with below the 100-DMA (120.96) to confirm.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.260

*RES 4: 99.343 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.243 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.230

*SUP 1: 99.210 Low June 14

*SUP 2: 99.200 Lows June6 - 8

*SUP 3: 99.181 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.153 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 200-DMA and

pressure remaining on 99.243-260. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to

gain breathing room and above 99.260 to return focus to 2018 highs. Layers of

support remain in place as daily studies correct from O/S. Bears now need a

close below 99.210 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA to shift initial

focus back to 99.131-153 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.306 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.289 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.281 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.273 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 100.245 has resulted in closes above key

resistance levels with bulls regaining the upper hand and immediate focus now

back on tests of 2018 highs. Fresh 2018 highs are needed to initially target

100.320. Daily studies at O/B levels are a concern for bulls. Bears now need a

close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to hint at

a move back to 100.245 with below the 200-DMA (100.264) confirming.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-00+ Resistance Remains Key To 121-03/12+

*RES 4: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 3: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 2: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 1: 120-00+ High June 7

*PRICE: 119-29 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-27  High June 15 now support

*SUP 2: 119-14+ Low June 15

*SUP 3: 119-09  Hourly resistance June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 118-29  Low June 13

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal break of the key 118-30

support with the contract lacking downside follow through. Bulls gain confidence

as the contract gains traction above the 55-DMA (119-15+) with 120-00+ key.

Bulls need a close above 120-00+ to add support to the case for a move back to

121-03/12+. Bears now need a close below 119-14+ to gain breathing room and

below 118-29+ to shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.937 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 3: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 2: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.937 - High June 15

*PRICE: 2.888 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 2: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains offered as it currently flirts with the 2.884

support. Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction below 55

(2.930) & 100 (2.887) DMAs and shift focus to 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are

noted. Bulls now look for a close above 2.937 to gain breathing room and above

3.014 to end bearish hopes and target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3383.17 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3566.53 Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3560.56 High May 24

*RES 2: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 1: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3466.65

*SUP 1: 3451.90 Low June 18 

*SUP 2: 3426.00 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 3422.03 Low June 8 

*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bears were not disappointed to start the new week with the index

looking offered following the failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA

(3521.54) last week. Focus has returned to 3383.17-3426.00 where the bull

channel base off 2018 lows is noted. Bears now need a close below 3383.17 to

target 2018 lows. Bulls need a close above 3505.02 to gain breathing room and

above 3600.36 to confirm focus on 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]