MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

6 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 161.26 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.63 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 1: 162.89 High July 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.59

*SUP 1: 162.45 Hourly support July 5

*SUP 2: 162.06 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 161.75 Low June 26

*SUP 4: 161.54 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break below 162.22 with the pair

recovering to retain focus on the break of 163.03 needed to add support to the

bullish case for a test of 164.19-42. The 161.26 support remains key this week.

Bears continue to look for a close below to shift initial focus back to

159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (160.11) is situated. Correcting O/B studies

remain a concern for bulls and currently weigh.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Bounces Ahead Of Key Supports

*RES 4: 132.669 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 2: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 1: 132.160 High July 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.100

*SUP 1: 131.825 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 3: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 4: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation this week resulted in a dip Thursday

reconfirming the significance of the 131.770-825 support region. Bulls still

need a close above 132.330 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting O/B

studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. Bears continue to

look for a close below 131.770 to initially target 131.180-190 where the 55-DMA

(131.180) is noted.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Above 112.155 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 112.165 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 1: 112.075 Hourly support July 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.050

*SUP 1: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.920 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the close below 112.055 although the contract

is finding support below a bull channel base. Bulls need a close above 112.075

to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in focus back to

112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted. The 55-DMA is now key. Bears now need a

close below this level to shift focus back to 111.815-866 where the 100-DMA

(111.866) is noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.78 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.49 High July 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.34

*SUP 1: 122.80 Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 122.71 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base off May low 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped by the 123.49-64 resistance region with

dips finding support ahead of the 21-DMA so far this week. Bears continue to

look for a close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising daily TL off May

lows and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to 121.33-86 where 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above 123.64 to add support to

the case for a test of 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Focus Now On 100-DMA

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.208 21-DMA

*RES 2: 99.196 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.185 Low June 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.160

*SUP 1: 99.144 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.134 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.060 Low Apr 24

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break lower seeing

bears now focused on the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to

shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to 98.990-000 where

2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above 99.230 to shift focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.300-305 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15 

*RES 1: 100.295 - Falling TL off May 9 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.284 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies are now mixed and giving few clues. Bears still need a close below the

21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break of the

200-DMA (100.268) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall focus back

to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 3: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 2: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 1: 120-11+ Falling Tl Off May high

*PRICE: 120-09+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-07  Hourly support July 5

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low July 5

*SUP 3: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 4: 119-26+ Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a

close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-17+) and

modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through.

Bears now look for a close below 120-03 now to ease pressure on resistance

layers and below 119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where the 55-DMA

is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5 

*RES 1: 2.842 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.820 - Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base (2.807) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern

for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above

2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3469.94 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 2: 3488.14 55-DMA

*RES 1: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3440.92

*SUP 1: 3424.60 High June 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3340.50 Low June 27 

*SUP 4: 3321.95 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 21-DMA (3432.80) and

3424.60 with immediate pressure now on 3469.94 and this level having capped

Thursday. Bulls need a close above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to

3488.14-3540.03 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain

the upper hand but now need a close below 3264.60 to gain breathing room and

below 3389.44 to pressure June lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]