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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
6 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 161.26 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.63 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30
*RES 1: 162.89 High July 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.59
*SUP 1: 162.45 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 2: 162.06 Low July 5
*SUP 3: 161.75 Low June 26
*SUP 4: 161.54 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break below 162.22 with the pair
recovering to retain focus on the break of 163.03 needed to add support to the
bullish case for a test of 164.19-42. The 161.26 support remains key this week.
Bears continue to look for a close below to shift initial focus back to
159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (160.11) is situated. Correcting O/B studies
remain a concern for bulls and currently weigh.
BOBL TECHS: (U18) Bounces Ahead Of Key Supports
*RES 4: 132.669 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30
*RES 2: 132.330 High July 2
*RES 1: 132.160 High July 5
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.100
*SUP 1: 131.825 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29
*SUP 3: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support
*SUP 4: 131.190 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation this week resulted in a dip Thursday
reconfirming the significance of the 131.770-825 support region. Bulls still
need a close above 132.330 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting O/B
studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. Bears continue to
look for a close below 131.770 to initially target 131.180-190 where the 55-DMA
(131.180) is noted.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Above 112.155 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 112.165 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 2: 112.135 High June 21
*RES 1: 112.075 Hourly support July 4 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.050
*SUP 1: 112.000 Low July 5
*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14
*SUP 3: 111.940 High June 13 now support
*SUP 4: 111.920 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the close below 112.055 although the contract
is finding support below a bull channel base. Bulls need a close above 112.075
to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in focus back to
112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted. The 55-DMA is now key. Bears now need a
close below this level to shift focus back to 111.815-866 where the 100-DMA
(111.866) is noted.
GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29
*RES 3: 123.78 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30
*RES 1: 123.49 High July 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.34
*SUP 1: 122.80 Low July 5
*SUP 2: 122.71 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base off May low
*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22
*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped by the 123.49-64 resistance region with
dips finding support ahead of the 21-DMA so far this week. Bears continue to
look for a close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising daily TL off May
lows and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to 121.33-86 where 55 &
100-DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above 123.64 to add support to
the case for a test of 124.67.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Focus Now On 100-DMA
*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance
*RES 3: 99.208 21-DMA
*RES 2: 99.196 55-DMA
*RES 1: 99.185 Low June 27
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.160
*SUP 1: 99.144 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3
*SUP 3: 99.134 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 99.060 Low Apr 24
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break lower seeing
bears now focused on the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to
shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to 98.990-000 where
2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish
pressure and above 99.230 to shift focus back to 99.260.
EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.300-305 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May
*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance
*RES 2: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15
*RES 1: 100.295 - Falling TL off May 9 high
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295
*SUP 1: 100.284 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25
*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support
*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8
*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above
this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily
studies are now mixed and giving few clues. Bears still need a close below the
21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break of the
200-DMA (100.268) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall focus back
to 2018 lows.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-03 High May 30
*RES 3: 120-24 Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 2: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 120-11+ Falling Tl Off May high
*PRICE: 120-09+ @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 120-07 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 2: 120-03 Low July 5
*SUP 3: 119-30 Low July 3
*SUP 4: 119-26+ Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-17+) and
modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through.
Bears now look for a close below 120-03 now to ease pressure on resistance
layers and below 119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where the 55-DMA
is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3
*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5
*RES 1: 2.842 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.820 - Low July 5
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are
noted. The Bollinger base (2.807) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern
for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above
2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &
100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3469.94 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15
*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance
*RES 2: 3488.14 55-DMA
*RES 1: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3440.92
*SUP 1: 3424.60 High June 27 now support
*SUP 2: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 3340.50 Low June 27
*SUP 4: 3321.95 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 21-DMA (3432.80) and
3424.60 with immediate pressure now on 3469.94 and this level having capped
Thursday. Bulls need a close above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to
3488.14-3540.03 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain
the upper hand but now need a close below 3264.60 to gain breathing room and
below 3389.44 to pressure June lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.