MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Pressure Remains On Key 163.03 Resistance

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.67 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 1: 162.93 High July 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.78

*SUP 1: 162.68 Hourly support July 6

*SUP 2: 162.45 Hourly support July 5

*SUP 3: 162.06 Low July 5

*SUP 4: 161.75 Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break below 162.22 last week.

Focus remains on the break of 163.03 needed to add support to the bullish case

for a test of 164.19-42. The 161.26 support remains key this week. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA gain breathing room and below

161.26 to shift initial focus back to 159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (160.20) is

situated. Correcting O/B studies remain a concern for bulls and currently weigh.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.770 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 132.683 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 2: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 1: 132.270 High July 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.180

*SUP 1: 132.070 Low July 6

*SUP 2: 131.880 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation last week resulted in a dip Thursday

reconfirming the significance of the 131.770-880 support region. Bulls still

need a close above 132.330 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting O/B

studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. Bears continue to

look for a close below 131.770 to initially target 131.190-217 where the 55-DMA

(131.217) is noted.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 55-DMA Key Support This Week

*RES 4: 112.165 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 1: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.065

*SUP 1: 112.035 Low July 6 

*SUP 2: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on last week's dips with support

emerging ahead of 111.975. The 55-DMA (111.927) is key support this week. Bears

need a close below 111.975 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below

the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 111.815-870 where the 100-DMA is located.

Bulls now need a close above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to

confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.78 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.49 High July 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.28

*SUP 1: 123.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 122.80 Low July 5 

*SUP 3: 122.79 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped by the 123.49-64 resistance region with

dips finding support ahead of the 21-DMA last week. Bears continue to look for a

close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising daily TL off May lows

(122.85) and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to 121.33-90 where 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above 123.64 to add support to

the case for a test of 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Focus On 100-DMA

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.206 21-DMA

*RES 2: 99.197 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.185 Low June 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.160

*SUP 1: 99.142 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.135 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.060 Low Apr 24

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break lower seeing

bears now focused on the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to

shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to 98.990-000 where

2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above 99.230 to shift focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: 100.300-305 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15 

*RES 1: 100.295 - Falling TL off May 9 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.287 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.269) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 120-03

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-18+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-13  Hourly resistance June 12

*PRICE: 120-07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-06+ Low July 6

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low July 5

*SUP 3: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 4: 119-26+ Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 120-16 resistance took its toll with a spike higher

Friday only to have follow through impeded by the Bollinger band top. Modestly

O/B studies looking to correct are an issue. Bears now look for a close below

120-03 to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA (119-22+) to shift initial

focus back to 119-13+ with the 55-DMA at 119-14+. Bulls need a close above

120-13 to gain breathing room.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5 

*RES 1: 2.849 - High July 6

*PRICE: 2.843 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base (2.800) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern

for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above

2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3469.94 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 2: 3487.31 55-DMA

*RES 1: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3448.49

*SUP 1: 3424.60 High June 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3340.50 Low June 27 

*SUP 4: 3321.99 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 21-DMA (3432.27) and 3424.60

with immediate pressure on 3469.94 which capped last week. Bulls need a close

above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to 3487.31-3540.03 where 55 &

200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain the upper hand but need a

close below 3264.60 to gain breathing room and below 3389.44 to pressure June

lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]