MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

17 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 162.26 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.25 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 163.22 High July 13

*RES 1: 163.00 Hourly resistance July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.70

*SUP 1: 162.40 Low July 11

*SUP 2: 162.34 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 162.26 Low July 10

*SUP 4: 162.06 Low July 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Friday's 6wk highs with the contract

dipping back towards the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below 162.26 to confirm

a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to 161.26-75. While 162.26

supports bulls remain focused on tests of the 164.19-36 region where 2018 highs

and the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs are located but continue to look

for a close above 163.22 to add support to their case.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 132.330 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 132.360 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 2: 132.260 Hourly support July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 132.180 Alternating support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.110

*SUP 1: 132.000 Low July 10

*SUP 2: 131.890 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The hesitation at the 133.330 resistance continues with narrowing

Bollinger bands hinting at a breakout in the near future. Bears continue to look

for a close below 132.000 to shift focus to the key 131.770 support. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 132.330 to reconfirm a bullish bias and

initially target 132.660-970. Overall below the 55-DMA (131.432) is needed to

end bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to 129.98.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.137 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 2: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.060 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.010

*SUP 1: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.961 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract is now capped by the 21-DMA with immediate pressure

back on the 112.000 support. The 111.940-975 support region where the 55-DMA is

noted remains key. Bears need a close below 111.940 to shift initial focus to

111.815-889 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in

focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 3: 123.50 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.49 High July 3 

*RES 1: 123.38 Hourly support July 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.97

*SUP 1: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 2: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 3: 122.28 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: 122.20 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: U18 remains capped by 123.49-64 with dips supported at 122.76.

Bears need a close below 122.76 to confirm traction below the rising daily TL

off May lows and the 21-DMA (123.06) with immediate focus shifting to 122.20-28

where the 55-DMA is noted. Below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus to

121.33-73 where the 100-DMA is situated. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 123.64 to reconfirm overall focus on 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 2: 99.208 55-DMA, Bear channel top off May 30 high

*RES 1: 99.189 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.165

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.139 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 99.138 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs with

immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the

100-DMA to shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to

98.990-000 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above 21 & 55-DMAs to

gain breathing room and above 99.230 to confirm a break of the bear channel top

and shift immediate focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.300-305 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.291 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.271), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-13/20 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-16+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-13  Hourly resistance June 12

*PRICE: 120-03+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-00  Lows July 10 & 16

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-18+ 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA (120-01+). Bears need a close below 119-26+ to confirm traction below the

21-DMA and pressure 119-13+/18+ where the 55-DMA is found. The 120-13/20

resistance region remains key. Bulls continue to look for a close above 120-13

to gain breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on the key 121-03/12

region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.877 - High July 16

*PRICE: 2.866 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base

(2.808) remains key concern for bears and limits follow through. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to

confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance

region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3418.06 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 3502.03 55-WMA

*RES 3: 3480.66 55-DMA

*RES 2: 3480.44 High July 10

*RES 1: 3466.26 High July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3449.08

*SUP 1: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 2: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3355.14 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3340.50 Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from June lows stalled ahead of the 55-DMA last week

with correcting O/B studies increasing the risk of a correction back to the

200-WMA (3323.96). Bears now need a close below 3418.06 to shift initial focus

back to 3340.50 June lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA

to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA (3511.66) to hint at a move back to

2018 highs. 

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]