MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 162.26 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.22 High July 13

*RES 2: 163.19 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 163.00 Hourly resistance July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.77

*SUP 1: 162.43 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 162.40 Low July 11

*SUP 3: 162.26 Low July 10

*SUP 4: 162.06 Low July 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Friday's 6wk highs with the contract

dipping back towards the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below 162.26 to confirm

a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to 161.26-75. While 162.26

supports bulls remain focused on tests of the 164.19-36 region where 2018 highs

and the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs are located but continue to look

for a close above 163.22 to add support to their case.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 132.330 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 3: 132.312 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.260 Hourly support July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 132.180 Alternating support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.120

*SUP 1: 132.000 Low July 10

*SUP 2: 131.890 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The hesitation at the 133.330 resistance continues with narrowing

Bollinger bands hinting at a breakout in the near future. Bears continue to look

for a close below 132.000 to shift focus to the key 131.770 support. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 132.330 to reconfirm a bullish bias and

initially target 132.660-970. Overall below the 55-DMA (131.463) is needed to

end bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to 129.98.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.137 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 2: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.062 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.015

*SUP 1: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.961 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract is now capped by the 21-DMA with immediate pressure on

the 112.000 support. The 111.940-975 support region where the 55-DMA is noted

remains key. Bears need a close below 111.940 to shift initial focus to

111.865-892 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in

focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Narrowed Bollinger Bands Hinting At Breakout

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 2: 123.49 High July 3 

*RES 1: 123.48 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.34

*SUP 1: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 2: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 3: 122.28 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: 122.20 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: U18 remains capped by 123.49-64 with dips supported at 122.76.

Bears need a close below 122.76 to confirm traction below the rising daily TL

off May lows and the 21-DMA (123.10) with immediate focus shifting to 122.24-28

where the 55-DMA is noted. Below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus to

121.33-73 where the 100-DMA is situated. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 123.64 to reconfirm overall focus on 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 2: 99.208 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.186 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.165

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.138 100-DMA , Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 99.138 Daily bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract has remained capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs with

immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the

100-DMA to shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to

98.990-000 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to

confirm a break of the bear channel top and gain breathing room and above 99.230

to shift immediate focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.292 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.271), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 119-26+

*RES 4: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 3: 120-15+ Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 120-13  Hourly resistance July 12

*RES 1: 120-08  High July 17

*PRICE: 120-01+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-00  Lows July 10 & 16

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-18+ 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 120-13 continues and sees pressure back on

layers of support 119-26+/00. Bears need a close below 119-26+ to confirm

traction below the 21-DMA and initially pressure 119-13+/18+ where the 55-DMA is

found. The 120-13/20 resistance region remains key. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 120-13 to gain breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on

the key 121-03/12 region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.847 Today

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.877 - High July 16

*PRICE: 2.873 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.847 - Low July 17 

*SUP 2: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 3: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues with bears now needing a close below

2.807 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. Narrowing

Bollinger bands are hinting at a breakout. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region. Bears now need a

close below 2.847 to gain breathing room.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3418.06 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 3502.03 55-WMA

*RES 3: 3480.44 High July 10

*RES 2: 3479.23 55-DMA

*RES 1: 3466.26 High July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3457.50

*SUP 1: 3421.85 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3355.75 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from June lows stalled ahead of the 55-DMA last week

with correcting O/B studies increasing the risk of a correction back to the

200-WMA (3324.01). Bears still need a close below 3418.06 to shift initial focus

back to 3340.50 June lows. Bulls now look for a close above 3480.44 to gain

breathing room and above the 200-DMA (3510.92) to hint at a move back to 2018

highs (3687.22).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]