MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

19 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Key Resistance Continues To Cap

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.22 High July 13

*RES 2: 163.17 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 163.00 Hourly resistance July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.82

*SUP 1: 162.49 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 162.40 Low July 11

*SUP 3: 162.26 Low July 10

*SUP 4: 162.06 Low July 5

*COMMENTARY: Another failure to gain topside traction is a concern for bulls.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 163.22 to add support to the case for a

test of the 164.19-36 region where 2018 highs and the weekly bear channel top

off 2016 highs are located. The 21-DMA remains initial support but bears still

need a close below 162.26 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial

focus to 161.26-75.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 132.330 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 3: 132.289 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.270 High July 18 

*RES 1: 132.210 Hourly support July 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.120

*SUP 1: 132.000 Low July 10

*SUP 2: 131.890 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The hesitation ahead of 133.330 continues with narrowing Bollinger

bands hinting at a breakout in the near future. Bears continue to look for a

close below 132.000 to shift focus to the key 131.770 support. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 132.330 to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target

132.660-970. Overall below the 55-DMA (131.497) is needed to end bullish hopes

and shift overall focus back to 129.98.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 3: 112.134 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.062 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.025

*SUP 1: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.971 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA with pressure on

the 112.000 support. The 111.940-975 support region where the 55-DMA is noted

remains key. Bears need a close below 111.940 to shift initial focus to

111.865-895 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in

focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 55-WMA Capping For Now

*RES 4: 125.42 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 2: 124.10 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 123.99 High July 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.68

*SUP 1: 123.49 High July 3 now support 

*SUP 2: 123.06 Low July 17 

*SUP 3: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 4: 122.55 Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: Narrowing Bollinger bands hinted at a breakout and bulls were not

disappointed with a break higher that has so far remained capped ahead of the

55-WMA. Bulls look for a close above the 55-WMA to add support to the case for a

test of 2018 highs and focus on 125.42-126.38 where the 100-WMA and falling TL

off Sept 2016 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below 123.49 to gain

breathing room and below 123.06 to shift focus back to 122.28-76.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 2: 99.209 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.202 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.175

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.144 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3, 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.120 Daily bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract has remained capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs with

immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the

100-DMA to shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to

98.990-000 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to

confirm a break of the bear channel top and gain breathing room and above 99.230

to shift immediate focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.292 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.272), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 119-26+

*RES 4: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 3: 120-13  Hourly resistance July 12

*RES 2: 120-08  High July 17

*RES 1: 120-03+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 119-30+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 2: 119-23+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-19+ 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 120-08/13 continues and sees pressure back on

the 119-26+ support. Bears need a close below 119-26+ to confirm traction below

the 21-DMA and initially pressure 119-13+/19+ where the 55-DMA is found. The

120-08/20 resistance region is now key. Bulls now look for a close above 120-08

to gain breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on the key 121-03/12

region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.847

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.894 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 2.889 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - High July 3 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.847 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 4: 2.807 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of 2.807 has provided the base for a move

that sees bulls looking for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above

2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region. Immediate pressure is now on the 100-DMA. Bears now look for

a close below 2.847 to reconfirm pressure on 2.807 and maintain focus on

2.717-759.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3550.21 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 3: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 2: 3510.37 200-DMA

*RES 1: 3502.68 55-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3485.08

*SUP 1: 3477.98 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3466.26 High July 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 3424.22 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3418.06 Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on the dip back towards the 21-DMA Tuesday has

been followed up with a close above the 55-DMA that buys bulls breathing room

and sees initial focus on the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to

confirm focus on 3540.03-3566.53 where the bear channel top off 2018 highs is

located. Bears now need a close below 3466.26 to signal a false break and below

3418.06 to shift initial focus back to 3340.50 June lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]