MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

20 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 162.26

*RES 4: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.33 Weekly Bear channel top off 2016 high

*RES 2: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 1: 163.26 High July 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.14

*SUP 1: 162.70 Low July 19

*SUP 2: 162.57 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 162.40 Low July 11

*SUP 4: 162.26 Low July 10

*COMMENTARY: The break of 163.22 has lacked follow through although bullish

focus has now shifted to the 164.19-52 region where the weekly bear channel top

off 2016 highs is situated. Very narrowed Bollinger bands increase the risk of a

break out in coming sessions. The 21-DMA is noted at 162.57 but bears look for a

close below 162.26 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to

161.26-75. Bulls now need a close above 163.26 to add support to their case.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 132.330 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30

*RES 3: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 2: 132.270 High July 18 

*RES 1: 132.269 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.200

*SUP 1: 132.000 Low July 10

*SUP 2: 131.890 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The hesitation ahead of 133.330 continues with narrowing Bollinger

bands hinting at a breakout in coming sessions. Bears continue to look for a

close below 132.000 to shift focus to the key 131.770 support. Overall below the

55-DMA (131.497) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to

129.98. Bulls continue to look for a close above 132.330 to reconfirm a bullish

bias and initially target 132.660-970.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 3: 112.134 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.062 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.025

*SUP 1: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 111.989 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14, 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA with pressure on

the 112.000 support. The 111.940-975 support region where the 55-DMA is noted

remains key. Bears need a close below 111.940 to shift initial focus to

111.865-894 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in

focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 123.47

*RES 4: 125.42 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 2: 124.18 High July 19 

*RES 1: 124.11 55-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.08

*SUP 1: 123.99 High July 18 now support 

*SUP 2: 123.47 Low July 19 

*SUP 3: 123.19 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 123.06 Low July 17

*COMMENTARY: Narrowing Bollinger bands hinted at a breakout and bulls were not

disappointed with a break higher that is flirting with the 55-WMA. Bulls look

for a close above the 55-WMA to add support to the case for a test of 2018 highs

and focus on 125.47-126.38 where the 100-WMA and falling TL off Sept 2016 highs

are noted. Bears now need a close below 123.47 to gain breathing room and below

123.06 to shift focus back to 122.28-76 where the 55-DMA is found.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 2: 99.209 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.200 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.151 Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3, 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.117 Daily bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract has remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA with immediate

focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to

shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to 98.990-000 where

2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to confirm a break of

the bear channel top and gain breathing room and above 99.230 to shift immediate

focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.293 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.272), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Narrowed Bollis Hint At Breakout

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-16+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-13+ High July 19

*PRICE: 120-09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-07  Hourly resistance July 19 now support

*SUP 2: 120-05+ 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 119-27+ Bollinger band

*SUP 4: 119-26+ Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: 119-26+ confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce that sees

focus return to the 120-20 resistance. Bulls continue to look for a close above

120-20 to confirm focus on the key 121-03/12 region. Support layers building add

to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and below 119-26+ to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and

initially pressure 119-13+/20+ where the 55-DMA is found.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.807 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.922 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.894 - High July 19 

*RES 2: 2.871 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance (A) 

*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.849 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Bullish pressure managed a pop above the 2.884 resistance and

100-DMA (2.894) before being aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and

pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region. Bears still need a close below

2.807 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759. Daily studies are well place for a fresh

leg lower with narrowing Bollinger bands suggesting a breakout.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3509.66 200-DMA

*RES 2: 3502.44 55-WMA

*RES 1: 3487.00 High July 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3471.64

*SUP 1: 3466.26 High July 13 now support 

*SUP 2: 3425.75 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 4: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA (3476.93) has been brief so far with

pressure on initial support. Bears still need a close below 3466.26 to ease

renewed bullish pressure and below 3418.06 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

shift initial focus back to 3340.50 June lows. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 200-DMA to confirm focus on 3540.03-3566.53 where the bear

channel top (3549.11) off 2018 highs is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]