MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

23 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 162.06 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 163.39 High July 20

*RES 3: 163.21 Hourly resistance July 20

*RES 2: 162.95 Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.70 Low July 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.46

*SUP 1: 162.40 Low July 11

*SUP 2: 162.26 Low July 10

*SUP 3: 162.09 Daily Bull channel base off May 17 low

*SUP 4: 162.06 Low July 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's gains with fresh 2mth

highs Friday aggressively reversed and pressure now on the 161.75-162.40 support

region. The bull channel base comes in around 162.09 this week with bears

needing a close below 162.06 to confirm a break and below 161.75 to shift focus

back to 161.02-26 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls now look for a close above

162.70 to gain breathing room and above 162.39 to target 164.19-32.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Bears Now Need Close Below 131.770

*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 3: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 2: 132.290 High July 20 

*RES 1: 132.273 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.02

*SUP 1: 131.990 Low July 20

*SUP 2: 131.890 Low July 5

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 4: 131.552 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The hesitation ahead of 133.330 continues with narrowing Bollinger

bands hinting at a breakout in coming sessions. The topside failure Friday

resulted in a marginal break of 132.000 and hints at a test of 131.770 to start

the week. Bears continue to look for a close below 131.490 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and shift overall focus back to 129.98 Apr lows. Bulls need a close

above 132.330 to shift focus to 132.66-97.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 3: 112.134 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.056 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.005

*SUP 1: 111.982 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 111.979 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA with immediate

focus now on 111.975-982 where the 55-DMA and Bollinger base are noted. Narrowed

Bollis continue to point towards a breakout. Bears need a close below 111.940 to

shift initial focus to 111.865-893 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to

confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 123.47

*RES 4: 125.42 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 2: 124.27 High July 20 

*RES 1: 123.84 Hourly support July 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.62

*SUP 1: 123.47 Low July 19 

*SUP 2: 123.22 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 123.06 Low July 17 

*SUP 4: 122.76 Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Thursday's rally sees the contract looking

offered and immediate pressure back on the 123.47 support. Bears now need a

close below 123.47 to gain breathing room and below 123.06 to shift focus back

to 122.28-76 where the 55-DMA (122.38) is found. Bulls now need a close above

123.84 to gain breathing room and retain initial focus on 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 2: 99.209 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.197 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.149 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.143 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*COMMENTARY: The contract has remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA with immediate

focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to

shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to 98.990-000 where

2018 lows are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to confirm a break of

the bear channel top and gain breathing room and above 99.230 to shift immediate

focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.294 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.285 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.273), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Narrowed Bollis Hint At Breakout

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-13+ High July 19, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-06+ Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-00+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-26+ Low June 26, Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 119-24+ 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 119-20+ 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 119-13+ Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: The 119-26+ support confirmed significance with an aggressive

bounce that saw focus return to 120-20. Bulls failed to capitalise with pressure

back on 119-26+ to end last week. Bears continue to look for a close and below

119-26+ to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and initially pressure 119-13+/20+

where the 55-DMA is found. Bulls now look for a close above 120-06+ to gain

breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on the key 121-03/12 region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Back On 2.950

*RES 4: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 3: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 1: 2.921 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.891 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: 2.860 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 4: 2.807 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the failure to challenge the 2.807 support

last week and the rally and bullish close Friday that sees focus on 2.921-950

where the 55-DMA is this week. Bulls need a close above 2.950 to confirm

traction above 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

Bears now look for a close below 2.880 to gain breathing room and below 2.860 to

pressure the key 2.807 support.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3418.06 & 200-DMA Levels Key

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3508.95 200-DMA

*RES 2: 3502.22 55-WMA

*RES 1: 3487.00 High July 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3460.03

*SUP 1: 3428.44 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3353.95 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 55-DMA (3475.29) last week

resulted in a dip back to the 21-DMA Friday before recovering some lost ground.

Bears continue to look for a close below 3418.06 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 3340.50 June lows. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm focus on 3540.03-3566.53 where the bear

channel top (3545.60) off 2018 highs is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]