MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

24 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Narrowed Bollis Increase Breakout Risk

*RES 4: 162.95 Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.70 Low July 19 now resistance

*RES 2: 162.59 21-DMA

*RES 1: 162.25 Hourly resistance July 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.98

*SUP 1: 161.75 Low July 11

*SUP 2: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 3: 161.08 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's gains with fresh 2mth

highs Friday aggressively reversed. Losses continued Monday with the close below

the bull channel base pressuring 161.75. Bears continue to look for a close

below 161.75 to shift focus back to 161.08-26 where the 55-DMA is noted. Layers

of resistance accumulating adds to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close

above 162.70 to shift focus back to 163.39-164.19.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Pressure Returns To 131.770

*RES 4: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 3: 132.290 High July 20 

*RES 2: 132.040 High July 23 

*RES 1: 131.920 Hourly support July 23 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.820

*SUP 1: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 2: 131.575 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 131.500 Low June 15

*SUP 4: 131.191 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears have not been disappointed with narrowing Bollinger bands

hinting at a breakout. The topside failure Friday resulted in a marginal break

of 132.000 and sees immediate pressure on 131.770 with a close below easing

bullish pressure. Bears need a close below 131.490 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and shift overall focus back to 129.98 Apr lows. Bulls need a close above

132.050 to gain breathing room.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.050 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 112.010 High July 23 

*RES 2: 111.983 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.965

*SUP 1: 111.982 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 111.979 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA with immediate

focus now on the 111.940 support following the close below the 55-DMA. Bears

still need a close below 111.940 to shift initial focus to 111.865-891 where the

100-DMA is located. Bulls now look for a close above 112.010 to gain breathing

room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where

2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Pressuring 123.06 Support

*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 3: 124.27 High July 20 

*RES 2: 123.84 Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 123.41 Hourly resistance July 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.20

*SUP 1: 123.06 Low July 17 

*SUP 2: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: 122.41 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Thursday's rally sees the contract looking

offered and immediate pressure back on the 123.06 support. Bears still need a

close below 123.06 to shift focus back to 122.28-55 where the 55-DMA (122.41) is

found. Bulls continue to look for a close above 123.84 to gain breathing room

and retain initial focus on 124.27-67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55-DMA & 99.140 Key

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 2: 99.209 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.194 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.155

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.147 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.144 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*COMMENTARY: The contract has remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA with immediate

focus on the 100-DMA. Bears now look for a close below 99.140 to shift initial

focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to 98.990-000 where 2018 lows are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to confirm a break of the bear

channel top and gain breathing room, and above 99.230 to shift immediate focus

back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.285 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.274), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Below 119-13+ Shifts Focus To May Low

*RES 4: 120-06+ Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*RES 3: 119-30  Hourly support July 23 now resistance

*RES 2: 119-26+ Alternating Daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 120-20+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 119-17+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-13+ Low June 21

*SUP 2: 119-06  Low June 14

*SUP 3: 118-29+ Monthly Low June 13

*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Narrowed Bollinger bands hinted at a breakout and bears have not

been disappointed with a close below the 55-DMA that sees immediate pressure on

119-13+. Bears need a close below this level to shift overall focus back to

tests of May lows (117-30) with below 118-29+ to add weight to their case. Bulls

now need a close above 119-30 to gain breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm

focus on the key 121-03/12 region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns To 3.014-3.084

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 1: 2.967 - High July 23

*PRICE: 2.956 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.950 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.923 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low resulted in a close above the key

2.950 resistance confirming traction above the 55-DMA. Bullish focus now shifts

to the 3.014-084 resistance region with a close above 3.084 to confirm initial

focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below the

55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 2.880 to shift focus back to 2.807.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3418.06 & 200-DMA Levels Key

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3508.16 200-DMA

*RES 2: 3502.05 55-WMA

*RES 1: 3487.00 High July 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3454.05

*SUP 1: 3429.03 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3353.94 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 55-DMA (3473.28) last week

resulted in a dip back to the 21-DMA Friday before recovering some lost ground.

Bears continue to look for a close below 3418.06 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 3340.50 June lows. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm focus on 3540.03-3566.53 where the bear

channel top (3545.60) off 2018 highs is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]