MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Below 160.50 Targets 159.58-79

*RES 4: 161.87 21-DMA

*RES 3: 161.62 Low Sept 26 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a now resistance

*RES 1: 161.06 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.96

*SUP 1: 160.71 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 160.54 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 160.50 Low Aug 16

*SUP 4: 159.79 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 163.43 sees the contract flirting with 55

(100.91) & 100 (100.71) DMAs although follow through has been a little lacking.

The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now look for a close below 160.50 to shift initial focus to

159.58-79 and overall focus back to July lows (157.55). Bulls now look for a

close above 161.06 to gain breathing room and above 162.15 to end bearish hopes.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 131.44 High Sept 27, 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.32 Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: 131.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.15

*SUP 1: 131.04 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 131.03 Low Sept 27

*SUP 3: 130.95 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA (131.04) supported last week and is again supporting

following the topside failures around the 21-DMA (131.44). The Bollinger band

base is seen as the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now need a close below 130.90 to add weight to the case for a

move back to 129.72 July lows. Bulls now need a close above 131.32 to gain

breathing room and above 131.64 to shift focus higher.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.180 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.205 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 1: 112.150 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.135

*SUP 1: 112.105 Low Sept 27 

*SUP 2: 112.100 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 3: 112.077 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 112.065 Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of 112.180 as it continues to

flirt with the 21-DMA (112.172). Bulls still need a close above 112.180 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially pressure 112.230-285 where the

100-DMA (112.237) is located. While 112.180 caps bears retain an advantage and

remain focused on 112.049-065 where the 55-DMA is situated. Below the 55-DMA

hints at a move back to 111.760 with below 112.015 to confirm.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Below 123.36 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 123.97 High Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.66

*SUP 1: 123.36 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: 123.17 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 122.55 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Very O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 123.97

to gain breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to 125.21.

Bears remain focused on 123.36 with a close below needed to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.360

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Losses continued for H18 last week with bearish focus on 99.230 and

a close below needed to target 98.980-99.040 where Apr & May 2016 lows are

situated. Very O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Initial resistance

is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room. A close above 99.410 is needed to shift focus back to the 200-DMA

(99.507).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Aug & Sept

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.288 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains supported ahead of the 55-DMA (100.302) with a

close below 100.300 needed to confirm a break and initially pressure 100.275-288

where the 100-DMA is located. Modestly O/S studies correcting add support to the

bullish case for a return in pressure to 100.325-330 with bulls now needing a

close above 100.315 to confirm. Bollinger bands (100.303-323) remain flat as

broad sideways trading continues.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low

*RES 4: 126-050 - High Sept 20 

*RES 3: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-180 - Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PRICE: 125-140 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-100 - Low Sept 27

*SUP 2: 125-040 - Low July 26

*SUP 3: 125-030 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 124-280 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: This week's topside failures around the 55-DMA have taken their

toll with fresh 2mth lows and confirmation of focus on the 124-140 July low.

Bears need a close below 125-040 to add weight to their case. O/S daily studies

and the Bollinger base remain key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance are

building with bulls needing a close above 125-230 to gain breathing room and a

close above 126-090 to hint at a correction back to 126-270.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressure Back On 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13 

*RES 3: 2.344 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.337 - Repeated daily highs July 

*RES 1: 2.327 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: 2.319 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.301 - Hourly support Sept 27 & 28 

*SUP 2: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 3: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2.208 resulted in an aggressive rally and

bullish close confirming immediate focus on 2.327-337 where the 200-DMA is

noted. Bulls now look for a close above 2.337 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA

and hint at a move back to 2017 highs. Layers of support are building with bears

now needing a close below 2.266 to ease bullish pressure. Below 2.208 remains

needed to shift initial focus back to 2.171-189 where the 21-DMA is located.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Dominate While 3529.19 Supports 

*RES 4: 3595.93 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 3589.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3581.43 High June 26 

*RES 1: 3563.01 High Sept 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3555.17

*SUP 1: 3546.83 High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 3529.19 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: 3520.72 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 4: 3506.61 Low Sept 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3555.37 has come to an end with a break higher

that sees bulls focused on layers of resistance 3581.43-3615.06 where monthly

highs and the bull channel top are situated. Daily momentum divergence remains a

concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below 3529.19 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to 3476.36-3509.81 where key DMAs and the

daily bull channel base are located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]