MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 July 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1583-1.1611 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1803 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1776 High July 27 

*RES 2: $1.1733 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: $1.1707 Hourly resistance July 27a

*PRICE: $1.1686 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1648 Low July 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1611 Low July 26 

*SUP 3: $1.1583 High July 18 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1562 Hourly support July 20

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bull channel top is less than ideal

and has resulted in a correction leaving the pair looking a little heavy. The

$1.1648 support is key today with bears now needing a close below to shift focus

back to $1.1583-1.1611. A close below $1.1583 is needed to confirm a shift in

initial focus back to $1.1369-1.1507 where the 21-DMA and bull channel base are

noted. Bulls need a close above $1.1707 to gain breathing room.

CABLE TECHS: Topside Failure Hints at Correction

*RES 4: $1.3278 High Sept 19 

*RES 3: $1.3191 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.3157 2017 High July 27 

*RES 1: $1.3119 Hourly support July 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3080 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3052 Low July 27 

*SUP 2: $1.3030 Hourly support July 

*SUP 3: $1.3004 Low July 25 

*SUP 4: $1.2985 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs is less

than ideal for bulls when combined with waning momentum and the Bollinger top

($1.3139) limiting follow through. The close below $1.3083 eased bullish

pressure and sees focus return to $1.2985-1.3004 where the 21-DMA is located.

Initial resistance is noted at $1.3119 with bulls needing a close above to

return focus to $1.3157-1.3191 where the bull channel top is located.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.70-112.18 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y112.49 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y112.18 High July 26 

*RES 2: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27

*PRICE: Y111.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.75 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: Y110.62 Low June 16 

*SUP 3: Y110.52 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y110.34 High June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: Focus has returned to Y110.34-62 following the rejection above the

200-DMA (Y112.14) Wednesday. Hesitation ahead of this region is less than ideal

for bears with daily studies lingering at O/S. Bulls look for a close above

Y111.70 to shift focus to Y112.18-87 where the 21-DMA is located. Bears take

comfort in Y111.70 capping but now need a close below Y110.75 to reconfirm focus

on Y110.34-62. A close below Y110.34 then targets Y108.81-109.25.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Continues To Support

*RES 4: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 

*RES 3: Y130.75 2017 High July 11 

*RES 2: Y130.57 High July 25 

*RES 1: Y130.00 Hourly resistance July 27

*PRICE: Y129.85 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.44 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.76 Low July 20 

*SUP 3: Y128.48 Low July 13 

*SUP 4: Y127.89 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Yet another topside failure ahead of Y130.75 sees pressure back on

the 21-DMA that has supported on dips so far this week. Bears look for a close

below the 21-DMA to see pressure back on the Y128.48 support and below this

level to hint at a move back to the 55-DMA (Y126.41). Initial resistance is now

noted at Y130.00 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and

retain focus on Y130.75. Above Y130.75 targets Y131.64-132.23.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Downside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13

*RES 3: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9

*RES 2: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21

*RES 1: Gbp0.8961 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8931 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8852 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8826 Low July 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on the break below

$0.8898 but continue to look for a close above $0.8961 to shift immediate focus

back to tests of 2017 highs and then the Gbp0.9025-68 region above. The

Gbp0.8890 support is key today with bears needing a close below to initially

pressure the 21-DMA and the Gbp0.8771-0.8826 support region below. Daily studies

looking to correct from O/B remains the key concern for bulls.

AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 

*RES 3: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 2: $0.8018 - Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: $0.7985 - Hourly support July 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7970 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7941 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 26mth highs is

a concern for bulls with the Bollinger top capping and studies looking to

correct from O/B. There is an increased risk of a move back to $0.7838-74. Bears

need a close below $0.7838 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

$0.7749-90 where the 21-DMA ($0.7787) is located. Bulls need a close above

$0.8018 to reconfirm focus on $0.8163.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.602

*RES 4: 94.602 - Hourly support July 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.357 - Hourly resistance July 21 

*RES 2: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 1: 94.103 - High July 27

*PRICE: 93.824 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.650 - Hourly support July 27

*SUP 2: 93.152 - 2017 Low July 27

*SUP 3: 93.019 - Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 92.269 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow-through on fresh 2017 and 13mth lows is

less than ideal for bears when combined with daily studies looking to correct

from O/S. Bulls now look for a close above 94.602 to confirm an easing of

bearish pressure and shift focus to 95.078-95.464 where the 21-DMA (95.078) is

noted. Initial support is now noted at 93.650 with bears needing a close below

to retain focus on tests of the 200-WMA.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.229 & 2.337 Key

*RES 4: 2.375 - Hourly resistance July 11

*RES 3: 2.366 - High July 13

*RES 2: 2.360 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*PRICE: 2.301 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.276 - Low July 27 

*SUP 2: 2.252 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to take comfort in the 2.337 resistance remaining

unbroken with bulls needing a close above this level to see pressure back to

2.360-396 where the bear channel top and July highs are located. Correcting O/S

studies are the key concern for bears who now need a close below 2.276 to retain

focus on the key 2.229 support. A close below 2.229 remains needed to confirm

focus on 2017 lows.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Focus Shifts To $50.70-51.33 

*RES 4: $51.02 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $49.67 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $49.23 - High July 27

*PRICE: $48.98 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.25 - Low July 27 

*SUP 2: $47.86 - Low July 26 

*SUP 3: $47.43 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support A 

*SUP 4: $47.08 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from a dip below the 21-DMA ($46.71) to start the new

week now sees the contract gaining traction above the 100-DMA ($48.63) and focus

now on $50.71-51.33. The daily bear channel top and 200-DMA are noted in this

region. The $47.43-48.25 support region is key. Bears need a close below to

shift focus back to 21 & 55-DMAs $46.71-47.08. Below the 21-DMA is needed to

pressure $45.16-45.52 where the bull channel base is found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1242.4-1252.7 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 2: $1266.5 - High June 15 

*RES 1: $1265.2 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1258.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 2: $1242.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1235.2 - Hourly support July 18, 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1229.4 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with gold finding

support ahead of $1242.4 and resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance

that shifted initial focus ton $1280.8 and overall focus on tests of 2017 highs.

The Bollinger top is the key concern and currently caps. Layers of support

remain with bears needing a close below $1252.7 to ease bullish pressure and

below $1242.4 to shift focus lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]