MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 July 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.1814 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1798 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.1776 2017High July 2 

*RES 1: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: $1.1733 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 2: $1.1671 Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $1.1648 Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1648 support confirmed significance Friday with the pair

supported ahead resulting in a bullish close that sees immediate focus on

$1.1776-1.1870 where the bull channel top & 200-WMA are situated. O/B daily

studies and the Bollinger top ($1.1799) are key concerns for bulls. Bears now

need a close below $1.1704 to ease pressure on the 200-WMA and below $1.1648 to

pressure the key $1.1583-1.1611 support region.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3157 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6 

*RES 3: $1.3278 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: $1.3194 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $1.3157 2017 High July 27

*PRICE: $1.3125 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3113 Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 2: $1.3052 Low July 27 

*SUP 3: $1.3030 Hourly support July 26 

*SUP 4: $1.3004 Low July 25

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs is less

than ideal for bulls when combined with waning momentum and the Bollinger top

($1.3162) limiting follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.3157 to reconfirm

a bullish bias and shift focus to Sept monthly highs ($1.3445). The $1.3052

support remains key with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to

$1.2992-1.3004 where the 21-DMA is located.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.85 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: Y112.17 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28

*PRICE: Y110.55 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.18 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y109.70 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.25 Low June 15 

*SUP 4: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y110.34 has taken its toll with a break in Asian

trading although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger base and O/S

studies remaining a concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above Y110.85

to gain breathing room and hint at a bounce back to layers of resistance

Y111.39-112.87 where DMAs are located. While Y110.85 caps initial bearish focus

is now on Y108.69-109.25.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Continues To Support

*RES 4: Y130.75 2017 High July 11 

*RES 3: Y130.57 High July 25 

*RES 2: Y130.40 Hourly resistance July 28 

*RES 1: Y130.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Y129.70 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.51 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.76 Low July 20 

*SUP 3: Y128.48 Low July 13 

*SUP 4: Y128.07 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Yet another topside failure ahead of Y130.75 sees pressure back on

the 21-DMA that supported on dips last week. Bears look for a close below the

21-DMA to see pressure back on the Y128.48 support and below this level to hint

at a move back to the 55-DMA (Y126.50). Initial resistance is now noted at

Y130.09 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and retain focus

on Y130.75. Above Y130.75 targets Y131.64-132.23.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: O/B Studies A Concern For Bulls

*RES 4: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13

*RES 3: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9

*RES 2: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21

*RES 1: Gbp0.8970 High July 28

*PRICE: Gbp0.8938 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8928 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance, 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8826 Low July 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on the break below

$0.8898 last week but now look for a close above $0.8970 to shift immediate

focus back to tests of 2017 highs and then the Gbp0.9025-68 region above. The

Gbp0.8928 support region is key today with bears needing a close below to shift

focus back to Gbp0.8867-90 where the 21-DMA is located. Daily studies looking to

correct from O/B remains the key concern for bulls.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7934 & $0.8018 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 

*RES 3: $0.8113 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 1: $0.8018 - Hourly resistance July 27

*PRICE: $0.7973 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7934 - Low July 28 

*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 26mth highs

last week remains a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking

to correct from O/B and momentum divergence. Bears need a close below $0.7934 to

shift focus back to $0.7838-74. A close below $0.7838 is needed to end bullish

hopes and shift focus back to $0.7749-02 where the 21-DMA ($0.7802) is located.

Bulls need a close above $0.8018 to reconfirm focus on $0.8163.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.602 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 94.357 - Hourly resistance July 21 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 1: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 93.452 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.152 - 2017 Low July 27

*SUP 2: 93.019 - Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 3: 92.332 - 200-WMA

*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow

through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate pressure on 2017 lows and

overall focus on 91.919-92.332 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 93.650 to gain

breathing room and above 94.602 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and

shift focus to 94.940-95.464 where the 21-DMA (94.940) is noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13

*RES 3: 2.357 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 1: 2.285 - Low July 28

*PRICE: 2.283 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.250 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 3: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.228 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around 2.337 last week leaves the yield looking heavy

and immediate focus on 2.228-229 where the 200-WMA is situated. Bears now look

for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus back on the 2.103 2017 low and

below 2.103 to target1.879. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls

needing a close above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.357-396 where the bear

channel top and July highs are located.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bulls Focused On $50.70-51.31 

*RES 4: $51.11 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: $50.88 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $50.10 - Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: $49.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $49.23 - High July 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $48.88 - Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $48.25 - Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $47.86 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from a dip below the 21-DMA ($46.92) last Monday sees

the U17 gaining traction above the 100-DMA ($48.64) and focus on $50.70-51.31.

The bear channel top and 200-DMA are noted in this region. Bears now need a

close below $48.88 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $47.86 to shift

focus to 21 & 55-DMAs ($46.92-47.10). Below the 21-DMA is needed to pressure

$45.16-45.64 where the bull channel base is found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus On $1280.8

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 1: $1273.5 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1268.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1242.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with gold finding

support ahead of $1242.4 and resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance

that shifted initial focus to $1280.8 and overall focus to tests of 2017 highs.

The Bollinger top & O/B studies remain key concerns. Bears now look for a close

below $1262.2 to gain breathing room and below $1252.7 to shift focus to the

$1242.4 support.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]