MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 3: $1.1990 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 1: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now support

*PRICE: $1.1824 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1816 Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 2: $1.1787 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 3: $1.1747 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 4: $1.1723 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA and the bullish close Friday, and look for a close above $1.1861 to

confirm focus on $1.1909-90 where 2017 highs and the bull channel top are noted.

Support layers are starting to accumulate with bears needing a close below

$1.1747 to retain pressure on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.1690 to

add weight to their case for a move that initially targets $1.1549-1.1648.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3031-63 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.3079 Hourly support Aug 4 

*RES 3: $1.3063 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3059 High Aug 7 

*RES 1: $1.3031 High Aug 10

*PRICE: $1.3014 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2990 Hourly resistance Aug 11 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2940 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 3: $1.2928 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2852 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA is less than ideal for bears who now

look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm immediate focus on layers of

support $1.2797-1.2852 where the bull channel base and 100-DMA are located. The

$1.3031-63 resistance is now key with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus back to $1.3113. A close above this level is needed to

target 2017 highs.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.25 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y110.82 High Aug 8 

*RES 3: Y110.59 Hourly resistance Aug 8 

*RES 2: Y110.25 Low Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y110.09 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: Y109.35 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.27 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y110.25 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the

pair remaining capped ahead of this level resulting in fresh 2mth lows and bears

focused on tests of Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are noted. The Bollinger base

(Y108.98) is the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are building and

weighing with bulls needing a close above Y109.58 to gain breathing room and

above Y110.25 to shift focus back to Y110.81-111.34 where key DMAs are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y129.89

*RES 4: Y131.13 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y130.87 High Aug 7

*RES 2: Y130.23 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 now resistance, 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y129.49 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.20 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y128.56 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 3: Y127.99 Low July 6 

*SUP 4: Y127.50 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on last week's low with the recovery

seeing pressure returning to the 21-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close

above Y129.89 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus back to

Y130.87-131.40 where 2017 highs are located. Support layers are accumulating

with bears now needing a close below Y129.20 to gain breathing room and below

Y128.56 to reconfirm initial focus on Y127.43-99.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.9043

*RES 4: Gbp0.9141 High Oct 11

*RES 3: Gbp0.9126 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9118 2017 High Aug 11

*RES 1: Gbp0.9102 Hourly resistance Aug 11

*PRICE: Gbp0.9086 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9076 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9043 Hourly support Aug 10 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9008 Low Aug 10

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs

Friday is less than ideal with daily studies looking to correct from O/B levels.

The Gbp0.9043-76 support region is key today. Bears need a close below Gbp0.9043

to shift focus back to Gbp0.8972-0.9008 where the 21-DMA is located. While

Gbp0.9076 support immediate focus remains on the Gbp0.9141-0.9201 region where

the bull channel top is situated.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7838 & $0.7949 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 3: $0.7949 - High Aug 7

*RES 2: $0.7932 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7919 - Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7909 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7885 - Hourly support Aug 14

*SUP 2: $0.7868 - Hourly resistance Aug 11 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7781 - Low July 17

*COMMENTARY: The key $0.7838 support confirmed significance last week having

remained unbroken under pressure. Overall a close below $0.7838 is needed to

shift focus to $0.7749-0.7781. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7949

to hint at a move back to $0.8044-65 with above $0.7998 needed to confirm. The

Bollinger base ($0.7840) remains the key concern for bears with potential to

limit follow through.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.888 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.888 - High Aug 9 

*RES 1: 93.507 - High Aug 11

*PRICE: 93.096 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 2: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 3: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*SUP 4: 92.395 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from recent 2017 lows the move stalled ahead of

the 21-DMA (93.658) with bulls now needing a close above 93.888 to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and above 94.476 to target 95.167-503 where the

55-DMA is located. The close below 93.061 reconfirmed immediate bearish focus on

2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region overall where the 200-WMA, 2016 & 2017

lows are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Lows

*RES 4: 2.261 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 2.258 - High Aug 9

*RES 2: 2.234 - Hourly resistance Aug 10

*RES 1: 2.222 - High Aug 11

*PRICE: 2.206 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.174 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield

capped ahead before heading sharply lower. The close below 2.212 reconfirmed

focus on tests of 2017 lows with a close below needed to target 1.991-2.205

where the 100-WMA is noted. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing

a close above 2.234 to gain breathing room and above 2.258 to shift focus back

to 2.261-289 where key DMAs are noted.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) $47.90 Support Key 

*RES 4: $51.32 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $50.63 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $50.51 - High Aug 1 

*RES 1: $49.67 - Hourly support Aug 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $48.95 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.16 - Low Aug 11 

*SUP 2: $47.90 - High July 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $47.02 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $45.59 - Low July 24

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to $47.90 remains a concern for bears

who need a close below the $47.90 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

below the 55-DMA ($47.02) to hint at a move back to $42.51 with below $44.03 to

confirm. Initial resistance is noted at $49.67 with bulls needing a close above

to ease bearish pressure and return focus to key resistance $50.51-51.32 where

the 200-DMA ($51.32) is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus On 2017 High, $1270.0 Support Key

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1295.5 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $1291.6 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1288.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.8 - High June 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Hourly support Aug 10a 

*SUP 3: $1270.0 - Hourly support Aug 9 

*SUP 4: $1263.4 - Hourly support Aug 9a

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA ($1261.6) Tuesday provided the

base for a move that has taken out $1280.8 with immediate focus now on 2017

highs. Layers of support continue to build with bears needing a close below

$1270.0 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to

$1253.7-1261.6 where key DMAs and the daily bull channel base are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]