MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1861 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.2001 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1810 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1783 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1768 Hourly support Aug 15 

*SUP 2: $1.1747 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 3: $1.1734 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 Low Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA last week and look for a close above $1.1861 to confirm focus on

$1.1909-1.2001 where 2017 highs and the bull channel top are noted. Support

layers remain with bears needing a close below $1.1747 to retain pressure on the

21-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.1690 to add weight to their case for a move

that initially targets $1.1560-1.1648.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3031-59 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.3059 High Aug 7 

*RES 3: $1.3057 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 1: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.3014 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 2: $1.2940 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 3: $1.2930 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2854 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.2852 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1.3031-59 resistance where the 21-DMA is located remains key.

Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of

bearish pressure and to shift focus back to $1.3113, The 55-DMA remains the key

support with bears needing a close below to confirm initial focus on $1.2852-54

where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are situated. Daily studies approaching

O/S are the key concern for bears.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.25 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y111.05 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y110.82 High Aug 8, 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y110.59 Hourly resistance Aug 8 

*RES 1: Y110.25 Low Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y110.22 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.80 High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.27 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 3: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: The Y110.25 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the

pair remaining capped ahead of this level resulting in fresh 2mth lows and bears

focused on tests of Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are noted. The Bollinger base

(Y109.02) and O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y110.25 to shift focus back to Y110.82-111.35 where key DMAs

are noted. Bears need a close below Y109.27 to end correction talk.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.23 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 3: Y131.13 High Aug 4 

*RES 2: Y130.87 High Aug 7

*RES 1: Y130.23 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.65 High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.29 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 3: Y128.91 Low Aug 14 

*SUP 4: Y128.56 Hourly support Aug 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees the pair flirting with the

21-DMA (Y129.89). Bulls now look for a close above Y130.23 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and return focus to Y131.13-40 and then Y132.23 2016 highs. Initial

support is noted at Y129.65 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on

the 21-DMA and below Y128.91 to reconfirm immediate focus on Y127.43-99 where

the 55-DMA is located.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.9043

*RES 4: Gbp0.9141 High Oct 11

*RES 3: Gbp0.9124 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9118 2017 High Aug 11

*RES 1: Gbp0.9102 Hourly resistance Aug 11

*PRICE: Gbp0.9088 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9070 Low Aug 14 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9043 Hourly support Aug 10 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9008 Low Aug 10

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs

Friday was less than ideal with daily studies looking to correct from O/B

levels. The Gbp0.9043-70 support region is key today. Bears need a close below

Gbp0.9043 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8986-0.9008 where the 21-DMA is located.

While Gbp0.9043 support bulls remain focused on the Gbp0.9141-0.9209 region

where the bull channel top is situated.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7838 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7949 - High Aug 7

*RES 3: $0.7930 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7919 - High Aug 14

*RES 1: $0.7885 - Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7872 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: $0.7749 - Hourly support July 14a 

*SUP 4: $0.7721 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The key $0.7838 support confirmed significance last week having

remained unbroken under pressure. Overall a close below $0.7838 is needed to

shift focus to $0.7749-0.7781. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7949

to hint at a move back to $0.8044-65 with above $0.7998 needed to confirm. The

Bollinger base ($0.7849) remains the key concern for bears with potential to

limit follow through.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.888 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.888 - High Aug 9 

*RES 1: 93.541 - Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PRICE: 93.492 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.248 - Hourly support Aug 14

*SUP 2: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from recent 2017 lows the move stalled ahead of

the 21-DMA (93.593) with bulls needing a close above 93.888 to confirm an easing

of bearish pressure and above 94.476 to target 95.167-439 where the 55-DMA is

located. While 93.888 caps bears dominate and retain immediate bearish focus on

2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region overall where the 200-WMA, 2016 & 2017

lows are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.258 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.326 - 200-DMA, Bear channel top

*RES 3: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*RES 2: 2.276 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: 2.258 - High Aug 9, 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.245 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.229 - High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 3: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.174 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield

capped ahead before heading sharply lower. Bulls take comfort in the break above

2.238 but look for a close above 2.258 & the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

2.276-2.289 where the 100-DMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies add support to

the case for a correction but 2.258 remains key. Bears now need a close below

2.229 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Focus Shifts To 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $49.67 - Hourly support Aug 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $49.30 - High Aug 14 

*RES 2: $48.48 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: $48.16 - Low Aug 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $47.82 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.60 - Low Aug 14 

*SUP 2: $47.02 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $45.59 - Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $45.31 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the close below $47.90 that eases bullish

pressure and sees immediate focus shift to the 55-DMA. Bears now need a close

below the 55-DMA to confirm initial focus on $45.31-59 and overall focus on

$42.51 June lows. The $49.30 resistance is now key. Bulls now need a close above

$49.30 to ease bearish pressure and return focus to $50.51-51.32 where the

200-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1270.0

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1289.3 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1285.9 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: $1277.7 - Hourly support Aug 10a now resistance

*PRICE: $1275.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1270.0 - Hourly support Aug 9 

*SUP 2: $1263.4 - Hourly support Aug 9a 

*SUP 3: $1263.0 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1253.8 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Gold is looking a little heavy as support layers start to give way

but the $1270.0 support remains key. Bears need a close below $1270.0 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $1253.8-1263.0 where

key DMAs and the daily bull channel base are situated. Resistance layers are

starting to build with bulls needing a close above $1285.9 to retain focus on

2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]