MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1769

*RES 4: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 3: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1810 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1769 Hourly support Aug 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1739 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1687 Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: $1.1648 Low July 27 

*SUP 3: $1.1611 Low July 26 

*SUP 4: $1.1571 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble $1.1861 resulted in a dip below the 21-DMA

($1.1743) before bouncing from $1.1687. The sell-off leaves the pair looking a

little heavy but a close below $1.1687 is needed to add weight to the case for a

move initially targeting $1.1571-1.1648. Layers of resistance are accumulating

with bulls needing a close above $1.1769 to ease bearish pressure and above

$1.1861 to shift focus back to $1.1909-1.2012.

CABLE TECHS: Pressuring 100-DMA & Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1.2970 High Aug 15 

*RES 2: $1.2928 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.2889 Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PRICE: $1.2871 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2860 Daily Bull channel base, 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2813 Monthly Low July 7 

*SUP 3: $1.2797 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: $1.2759 High June 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Consolidation below the 21-DMA ($1.3044) took its toll with a

sell-off and close below the 55-DMA that sees immediate pressure on the 100-DMA

and daily bull channel base. Bears now look for a close below $1.2797 to hint at

a move back to $1.2591-1.2655 where the 200-DMA is situated. Layers of

resistance are following cable lower with bulls needing a close above $1.2990 to

shift focus back to the 21-DMA.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Hesitating Around 21-DMA, Y110.12 Support Key

*RES 4: Y112.51 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.71 High July 27 

*RES 2: Y111.31 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.85 High Aug 15

*PRICE: Y110.65 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.28 Hourly support Aug 15 

*SUP 2: Y110.12 Hourly support Aug 15a 

*SUP 3: Y109.80 High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 4: Y109.27 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: O/S studies appear to be impacting with the recovery from a lack of

follow through Friday seeing the pair flirt with the 21-DMA (Y110.65). The

55-DMA remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to hint at a

shift higher in focus and above the 200-DMA to target Y114.50-115.50. Bears look

for a close below Y110.12 to ease bullish pressure and below Y109.40 to target

Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are situated.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.23 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 3: Y131.13 High Aug 4 

*RES 2: Y130.87 High Aug 7

*RES 1: Y130.23 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.91 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.29 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y128.91 Low Aug 14 

*SUP 3: Y128.56 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 4: Y127.99 Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees the pair flirting with the

21-DMA (Y129.91). Bulls continue to look for a close above Y130.23 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA and return focus to Y131.13-40 and then Y132.23 2016 highs.

Bears now look for a close below Y129.29 to ease pressure on Y130.23 and below

Y128.91 to reconfirm immediate focus on Y127.70-99 where the 55-DMA is located.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.9043-92 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9350 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9216 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9141 High Oct 11, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9133 2017 High Aug 15

*PRICE: Gbp0.9122 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9114 Hourly support Aug 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9092 Hourly support Aug 15a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9043 Hourly support Aug 10

*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.9043-51 support confirmed significance providing the base

for a rally to fresh 2017 and 10mth highs. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger

top remain key concerns for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers

of support are accumulating with bears needing a close below Gbp0.9092 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to Gbp0.9043-51. While Gbp0.9092 supports

bulls look for a close above Gbp0.9141 to confirm focus on the bull channel top.

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7847 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $0.7930 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7919 - High Aug 14

*RES 2: $0.7885 - Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7847 - Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PRICE: $0.7833 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7809 - Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: $0.7749 - Hourly support July 14a 

*SUP 4: $0.7725 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close below $0.7838 adds weight to the bearish case with focus

now on $0.7720-0.7781 where the 55-DMA is located. Below the 55-DMA then targets

$0.7563-0.7635 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated. Initial resistance is now

noted at $0.7847 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room.

Overall a close above $0.7885 is then needed to shift focus back to $0.7930-49

where the 21-DMA is noted.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 93.541 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.139 - High Aug 15 

*RES 1: 93.888 - Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PRICE: 93.839 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.541 - Hourly resistance Aug 15 now support

*SUP 2: 93.248 - Hourly support Aug 14

*SUP 3: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 4: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above the 21-DMA (93.576) that

confirms an easing of bearish pressure and sees bulls now focused on the break

of 94.476 needed to confirm focus on 95.167-464 where the 55-DMA (95.390) is

situated. The 93.541 support is now key. Bears look for a close below this level

to signal a false break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bullish pressure with

focus then returning to 2017 lows.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2.289

*RES 4: 2.337 - High July 25

*RES 3: 2.328 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: 2.323 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*PRICE: 2.268 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.250 - Hourly support Aug 15 

*SUP 2: 2.229 - High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the 2.289 resistance with bulls needing a

close above to confirm focus on tests of 2.323-2.337 where the 200-DMA and bear

channel top are situated. Above 2.337 is now needed to hint at a move back to

2017 highs with above 2.398 confirming. The 2.229-250 support region is key.

Bears need a close below 2.229 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

2.175-177 where the 55-WMA is noted.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $49.67 - Hourly support Aug 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $49.30 - High Aug 14 

*RES 2: $48.48 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: $48.16 - Low Aug 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $47.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.18 - Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: $46.93 - 55-DMA, Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $45.59 - Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $45.31 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Aug 1 highs is now finding support ahead

of the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base. Bears now need a close below the

55-DMA to shift immediate focus to $45.31-59 and overall focus back to tests of

$42.51 June lows. Resistance layers are starting to build with bulls needing a

close above $48.48 to gain breathing room and above $49.30 to return focus to

$50.51-51.31 where the 200-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1289.2 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1285.9 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: $1277.7 - Hourly support Aug 10a now resistance

*PRICE: $1273.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1267.5 - Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: $1265.5 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1264.3 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1253.9 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Gold is looking a little heavy as support layers give way with

bearish focus now on layers of support $1253.9-1265.5 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs

and the bull channel base ($1265.5) are located. The $1277.7 resistance is now

key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A close above 2017

highs remains needed to reconfirm a bullish bias and target $1337.4 Nov monthly

highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]