MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1790-1.1861 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1810 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1790 High Aug 17 

*RES 1: $1.1763 Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1733 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1709 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $1.1663 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1648 Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips below $1.1700 which provides

bulls some comfort but a close above $1.1810 remains needed to gain breathing

room with above $1.1861 to shift focus back to $1.1902-1.2033. Below $1.1663 is

needed to shift focus to the bull channel base. The base comes in around $1.1593

with bears needing a close below $1.1583 to confirm a break and initially target

the 55-DMA ($1.1487).

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2842 Support Key

*RES 4: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1.2970 High Aug 15 

*RES 2: $1.2929 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.2909 High Aug 17

*PRICE: $1.2888 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2853 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $1.2842 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 3: $1.2813 Monthly Low July 7 

*SUP 4: $1.2797 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to find support below the 100-DMA and ahead of

Wednesday's low. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and above $1.2990 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($1.3034).

Bears still need a close below $1.2842 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and

below $1.2759 to target the 200-DMA ($1.2641).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y109.27 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y110.61 Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.37 High Aug 17 

*RES 2: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y109.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Y109.37 @ 04030GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.27 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's lows ended ahead of key DMAs

Wednesday. Bulls need a close above Y110.61 to return focus to Y111.05-30, above

the 55-DMA (Y111.24) to hint at a shift higher in focus and above the 200-DMA

(Y112.52) to target Y114.50-115.50. Bears look for a close below Y109.27 to

again target Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are situated. The Bollinger base

(Y109.04) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead of 55-DMA For Now

*RES 4: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16 

*RES 3: Y129.49 Hourly resistance Aug 17a 

*RES 2: Y129.15 Hurly resistance Aug 17

*RES 1: Y128.47 Hourly resistance Aug 18

*PRICE: Y128.32 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.99 Low July 6 

*SUP 2: Y127.83 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y127.43 Low June 30 

*SUP 4: Y126.56 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA and Y130.23 lacked follow through Wednesday

with the bearish close leaving the pair looking heavy with pressure on the

Y127.43-99 support region where the 55-DMA is located. Bears now look for a

close below Y127.43 to target Y124.70-125.80 where the 100-DMA (Y124.93) is

found. Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a close above

Y129.15 to ease immediate bearish pressure.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Supported On Dips

*RES 4: Gbp0.9350 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9231 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9151 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9142 2017 High Aug 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.9104 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9076 Rising daily TL 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9063 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9043 Hourly support Aug 10

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of  2017 highs is a concern for bulls given daily

studies looking to correct from O/B, the Bollinger top limiting follow through

and momentum divergence. Layers of support remain with bears needing a close

below $0.9043 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8988 to

shift focus back to Gbp0.8922-23. Bulls continue to look for a close above

Gbp0.9142 to reconfirm the bullish bias targeting the bull channel top.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7963

*RES 4: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 3: $0.7963 - High Aug 17

*RES 2: $0.7936 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*RES 1: $0.7902 - Hourly support Aug 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7897 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7867 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16 

*SUP 3: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7781 - Low July 17

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $0.7949 is less

than ideal for bulls and leaves the pair looking a little heavy. The $0.7867

support is key today with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and shift focus back to $0.7739-0.7809 where the 55-DMA

($0.7747) is noted. Bulls now need a close above $0.7963 to shift focus back to

$0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.145-476 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.145 - High Aug 16 

*RES 1: 93.790 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: 93.625 @ 0150GMT

*SUP 1: 93.551 - Hourly support Aug 17

*SUP 2: 93.248 - Hourly support Aug 14

*SUP 3: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 4: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through remains lacking with the DXY capped ahead of

94.145 and 94.145-476 still key. Bulls need a close above 94.476 to confirm

focus on 95.167-464 where the 55-DMA (95.265) is situated. While 94.476 caps

bears retain an advantage and focus on tests of 92.548 2017 lows and the

91.969-92.548 region as a whole with the 200-WMA noted at 92.467. Daily studies

looking to correct from modestly O/B adds weight to the bearish case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.174-177 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*RES 3: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*RES 2: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: 2.203 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.185 - Low Aug 17 

*SUP 2: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.174 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: 2.121 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in bearish closes. Initial focus

has now returned to the 2.174-177 supports with a close below needed to confirm

focus on 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are situated. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above 2.264

to shift focus back to 2.289.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Supported Below 55-DMA For Now 

*RES 4: $48.58 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $48.48 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 2: $48.33 - High Aug 16 

*RES 1: $47.60 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $47.17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $46.96 - Hourly support Aug 17 

*SUP 2: $46.63 - Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $45.59 - Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $45.31 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Aug 1 highs resulted in dip below the

55-DMA ($46.86) before finding support. Daily studies correcting from modestly

O/S level is the key concern for bears who now need a close below $46.63 to

shift immediate focus to $45.31-59 and overall focus back to tests of $42.51

June lows. Bulls need close above the 100-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

$49.30 to return focus to $50.51-51.26 where the 200-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2017 High

*RES 4: $1304.4 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1292.7 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1292.0 - High Aug 11

*PRICE: $1287.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.1 - Low Aug 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1270.0 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1267.5 - Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise further on the correction lower from

ahead of 2017 highs with gold finding support ahead of the daily bull channel

base and 21-DMA ($1269.3). The close above $1277.7 saw bulls gain breathing room

but a close above 2017 highs is needed to reconfirm the bullish bias. Bears need

a close below $1277.7 to ease bullish pressure and return initial focus to

$1267.2-1270.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]