MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1790-1.1861 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 3: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1810 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1790 High Aug 17

*PRICE: $1.1755 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1709 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $1.1663 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1648 Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips below $1.1700 which provides

bulls some comfort but a close above $1.1810 remains needed to gain breathing

room with above $1.1861 to shift focus back to $1.1902-1.2043. Below $1.1663 is

needed to shift focus to the bull channel base. The base comes in around $1.1604

with bears needing a close below $1.1583 to confirm a break and initially target

the 55-DMA ($1.1496).

CABLE TECHS: $1.2915-90 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1.2970 High Aug 15 

*RES 2: $1.2928 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.2915 High Aug 18

*PRICE: $1.2878 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2832 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $1.2813 Monthly Low July 7 

*SUP 3: $1.2797 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: $1.2759 High June 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Volatility Friday resulted in a dip below $1.2842 that has so far

lacked follow through. In saying that, the pair continues to consolidate below

the 55-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and above $1.2990 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($1.3027).

Bears now need a close below $1.2832 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and below

$1.2759 to target the 200-DMA ($1.2643).

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y110.61 Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.37 High Aug 17 

*RES 2: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y109.60 High Aug 18

*PRICE: Y109.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.93 Hourly resistance Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.61 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from previous week's lows ended ahead of key DMAs

Wednesday with fresh 4mth lows Friday confirming focus on tests of 2017 lows.

Initial resistance is noted at Y109.60 with bulls needing a close above to gain

breathing room. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y110.61 to return focus

to Y111.05-29 and above this region to shift focus back to the 200-DMA

(Y112.56). Fresh 2017 lows see focus shift to the Y106.95 support.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16 

*RES 3: Y129.49 Hourly resistance Aug 17a 

*RES 2: Y129.15 Hurly resistance Aug 17

*RES 1: Y128.77 High Aug 18

*PRICE: Y128.42 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.17 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 2: Y127.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y127.52 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Y127.43 Low June 30

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Friday which is a

concern given daily studies at modestly O/S levels and the proximity of the

Bollinger base (Y128.12). Bears continue to look for a close below Y127.43 to

target Y124.70-125.80 where the 100-DMA (Y125.03) is found. Layers of resistance

are building with bulls now needing a close above Y129.15 to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above Y130.39 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Supported On Dips

*RES 4: Gbp0.9350 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9238 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9173 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9149 2017 High Aug 18

*PRICE: Gbp0.9128 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9123 Hourly resistance Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9080 Rising daily TL, Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9063 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 & 15

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs continue although marginally with daily

momentum divergence and O/B daily studies key concerns for bulls. In saying

that, layers of support continue to emerge with the Gbp0.8988-0.9090 support

region key. Bears need a close below Gbp0.9080 to gain breathing room and below

Gbp0.8988 to shift immediate focus to the bull channel base (Gbp0.8930). While

Gbp0.9080 supports bulls remain focused on the channel top (Gbp0.9238).

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7963

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 1: $0.7963 - High Aug 17

*PRICE: $0.7933 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7902 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16 

*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $0.7949 last

week was less than ideal for bulls. The $0.7867 support remains key this week

with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

shift focus back to $0.7739-0.7809 where the 55-DMA ($0.7756) is noted. Bulls

still need a close above $0.7963 to shift focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017

highs are located.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.145-476 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.145 - High Aug 16 

*RES 1: 93.791 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: 93.479 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.312 - Low Aug 17

*SUP 2: 93.248 - Hourly support Aug 14

*SUP 3: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 4: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through remains lacking with the DXY capped ahead of

94.145 and 94.145-476 still key. Bulls need a close above 94.476 to confirm

focus on 95.167-464 where the 55-DMA (95.199) is situated. While 94.476 caps

bears retain an advantage and focus on tests of 92.548 2017 lows and the

91.969-92.548 region as a whole with the 200-WMA noted at 92.537. Daily studies

looking to correct from modestly O/B adds weight to the bearish case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*RES 3: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: 2.210 - High Aug 18

*PRICE: 2.199 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.172 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in bearish closes last week.

Initial focus has returned to 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing

a close above 2.229 to ease bearish pressure and above 2.264 to shift initial

focus back to 2.289.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) $48.33 & $49.30 Key Levels Today 

*RES 4: $51.27 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $50.51 - High Aug 1 

*RES 2: $50.38 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: $49.30 - High Aug 18

*PRICE: $48.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.47 - Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $48.33 - High Aug 16 now support 

*SUP 3: $47.60 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: $46.94 - Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Aug 1 highs resulted in dip below the

55-DMA ($46.91) Thursday before finding support. The 55-DMA supported Friday

providing the base for a rally that sees focus back to $49.30 today. Bulls need

a close above $49.30 to return focus to $50.38-51.27 where the bear channel top

and 200-DMA are situated. Bears now need a close below $48.33 to ease pressure

on $49.30.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1267.5 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $1306.6 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1300.8 - 2017 High Aug 18 

*RES 2: $1294.9 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1292.0 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1285.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 - Hourly support Aug 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1272.2 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1270.5 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs Friday lacked follow through with gold

looking a little heavy to end the week. The Bollinger band top continues to

limit follow through and remains a concern for bulls. Initial resistance is

noted at $1292.0 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and

retain focus on $1306.6-1337.4. Bears need a close below $1277.7 to ease bullish

pressure and return initial focus to $1267.5-1272.2.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]