MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.1861

*RES 4: $1.2057 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1828 High Aug 21

*PRICE: $1.1812 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1790 High Aug 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1773 High Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1709 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 4: $1.1663 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips below $1.1700 the past week provided the

catalyst for a rally Monday with bulls now needing a close above $1.1861 to

shift focus back to $1.1902-1.2057. Support layers are following the pair higher

with bears now needing a close below $1.1773 to shift focus back to

$1.1663-1.1709. Daily studies correcting from modestly O/S adds support to the

bullish case.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2915-90 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1.2970 High Aug 15 

*RES 2: $1.2927 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.2916 High Aug 21

*PRICE: $1.2887 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2832 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $1.2813 Monthly Low July 7 

*SUP 3: $1.2797 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: $1.2759 High June 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Volatility Friday resulted in a dip below $1.2842 that has so far

lacked follow through. In saying that, the pair continues to consolidate below

the 55-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and above $1.2990 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($1.3019).

Bears now need a close below $1.2832 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and below

$1.2759 to target the 200-DMA ($1.2646).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y108.10 Targets Y98.95-101.16

*RES 4: Y110.39 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.37 High Aug 17 

*RES 2: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y109.60 High Aug 18

*PRICE: Y109.26 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.61 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.90 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from previous week's low ended ahead of key DMAs

Wednesday with fresh 4mth lows Friday confirming focus on tests of 2017 lows.

Bears need a close below Y108.10 to shift immediate focus to Y106.95 and overall

focus to Y98.95-101.16 where 2016 lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above

Y109.60 to gain breathing room. Bulls look for a close above Y110.61 to return

focus to Y111.05-25 and above this region to target the 200-DMA (Y112.56).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.18-130.39 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y130.39 High Aug 16 

*RES 3: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16 

*RES 2: Y129.49 Hourly resistance Aug 17a

*RES 1: Y129.18 Hourly resistance Aug 22

*PRICE: Y128.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.82 Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Y128.41 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y128.13 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y127.99 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Friday which is a

concern given daily studies at modestly O/S levels and the proximity of the

Bollinger base (Y128.12). Bears continue to look for a close below Y127.43 to

target Y124.70-125.80 where the 100-DMA (Y125.12) is found. Layers of resistance

are building with bulls now needing a close above Y129.18 to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above Y130.39 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.9091

*RES 4: Gbp0.9365 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9248 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9224 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9195 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Gbp0.9161 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9111 Low Aug 21 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9097 Rising daily TL 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs continue although marginally with daily

momentum divergence and O/B daily studies key concerns for bulls who are

currently focused on the daily bull channel top. Layers of support continue to

emerge which add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below

Gbp0.9149 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.9091 to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8988-0.9051 where the 21-DMA is located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7963

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 1: $0.7963 - High Aug 17

*PRICE: $0.7940 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7927 - Hourly support Aug 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7902 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $0.7867 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $0.7949 last

week was less than ideal for bulls. The $0.7867 support remains key this week

with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

shift focus back to $0.7739-0.7809 where the 55-DMA ($0.7761) is noted. Bulls

still need a close above $0.7963 to shift focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017

highs are found.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Above 93.582 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 94.145 - High Aug 16 

*RES 3: 93.791 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 2: 93.582 - High Aug 21 

*RES 1: 93.312 - Low Aug 17 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.179 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 2: 92.704 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through remains lacking with the DXY capped ahead of

94.145 and 94.145-476 still key. Bulls need a close above 94.476 to confirm

focus on 95.128-464 where the 55-DMA (95.128) is situated. While 94.476 caps

bears retain the advantage and focus on tests of 92.548 2017 lows and the

91.969-92.548 region as a whole with the 200-WMA noted at 92.535. The Bollinger

base is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 2: 2.210 - High Aug 18 

*RES 1: 2.197 - Hourly resistance Aug 21

*PRICE: 2.194 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: 2.162 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in bearish closes last week.

Initial focus has returned to 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing

a close above 2.229 to ease bearish pressure and above 2.264 to shift initial

focus back to 2.289.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bears Now Need Close Below $46.63 

*RES 4: $49.30 - High Aug 14 

*RES 3: $48.78 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $48.59 - Hourly resistance Aug 21a 

*RES 1: $48.16 - Hourly resistance Aug 21

*PRICE: $47.75 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.36 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $47.21 - Low Aug 21 

*SUP 3: $46.94 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: $46.88 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from last week's low

with the sell-off ahead of $49.30 taking out $48.33 and shifting focus back to

layers of support $46.63-47.36. Bears now need a close below $46.63 to end

bullish hopes and initially target $45.31-59 with overall focus on $42.51 June

lows. Initial resistance is noted at $48.16 but bulls look for a close above

$48.59 to see focus return to $49.30.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1267.5 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $1308.9 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1300.8 - 2017 High Aug 18 

*RES 2: $1297.5 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1293.9 - High Aug 21

*PRICE: $1288.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 - Hourly support Aug 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1274.4 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1272.4 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs Friday lacked follow through but the

bounce from ahead of $1277.7 saw bulls reconfirming dominance and pressure

remain on 2017 highs. The $1267.5-1277.7 support region remains key. Bears need

a close below $1277.7 to ease bullish pressure and below $1267.5 to confirm

break of the 21-DMA and bull channel base, shifting initial focus to 55 &

100-DMAs ($1254.6-1257.0).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]