MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

24 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1861-1.1909 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.1976 High Jan 5 2015 

*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1828 High Aug 21

*PRICE: $1.1800 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1773 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1740 Low Aug 23 

*SUP 3: $1.1709 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 4: $1.1663 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to find support on dips with the rally seeing

pressure return to key resistance layers. Bulls look for a close above $1.1861

to test 2017 highs with a close above current 2017 highs needed to target

$1.1976-1.2068 where the bull channel top is located. Daily studies remain well

placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now look for a close below $1.1773 to ease

pressure on resistance layers and below $1.1740 to pressure $1.1583-1.1663.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.2845 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.2916 High Aug 21 

*RES 3: $1.2894 Hourly support Aug 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22 

*RES 1: $1.2807 Hourly resistance Aug 23

*PRICE: $1.2785 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2778 Hourly support Aug 24 

*SUP 2: $1.2759 High June 26 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2703 Low June 26 

*SUP 4: $1.2680 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA took its toll Tuesday with a

sell-off that now sees bears now focused on $1.2587-1.2703 where the 200-DMA

($1.2649) and 55-WMA are located. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for

bears. In saying that, bulls need a close above $1.2845 to gain breathing room

and above the 55-DMA ($1.2920) to shift focus to $1.2990-1.3006 where the 21-DMA

is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.47-108.10 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y108.96 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y109.93 High Aug 23 

*RES 2: Y109.62 Hourly support Aug 23a now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.31 Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.18 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.61 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: Y107.47 Monthly High July 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y107.45-108.10 support remains key. Bears need a close below

Y108.10 to hint at a shift lower with below Y107.47 to confirm immediate focus

on Y106.95 and overall focus on Y99.08-101.16. The Y110.61 resistance remains

key with bulls needing a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear

channel top (Y110.10), returning focus to Y111.05-20 and above this region to

target the 200-DMA (Y112.56). Below Y108.61 adds weight to the bearish case.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.18-130.39 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y130.39 High Aug 16 

*RES 3: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16 

*RES 2: Y129.49 Hourly resistance Aug 17a

*RES 1: Y129.18 High Aug 22

*PRICE: Y128.87 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.41 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y128.13 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y128.18 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.43 Low June 30

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Friday which is a

concern given daily studies at modestly O/S levels and the proximity of the

Bollinger base (Y127.93). Bears continue to look for a close below Y127.43 to

target Y124.70-125.80 where the 100-DMA (Y125.33) is found. Layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above Y129.18 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above Y130.39 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Approaching Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: Gbp0.9412 Monthly high Oct 2009

*RES 3: Gbp0.9365 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 2: Gbp0.9263 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9236 2017 High Aug 23

*PRICE: Gbp0.9227 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9213 Hourly support Aug 23 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9189 Hourly support Aug 23a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9178 High Aug 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs continue with O/B daily studies the key

concern for bulls who are currently focused on the daily bull channel top.

Layers of support continue to emerge on dips which add support to the bullish

case. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.9213 to gain breathing room and

below Gbp0.9149 to shift focus back to Gbp0.9043-89 where the 21-DMA (Gbp0.9068)

is located. Overall bullish focus remains on Gbp0.9263-0.9412.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7963

*RES 4: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 3: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7963 - High Aug 17

*RES 1: $0.7929 - Hourly resistance Aug 22

*PRICE: $0.7897 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7881 - Low Aug 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7864 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $0.7949 last

week was less than ideal for bulls. The $0.7867 support remains key this week

with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to

shift focus back to $0.7749-0.7809 where the 55-DMA ($0.7774) is noted. Bulls

still need a close above $0.7963 to shift focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017

highs are found.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Remains On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 94.145 - High Aug 16 

*RES 3: 93.791 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 2: 93.628 - High Aug 23 

*RES 1: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23

*PRICE: 93.307 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.126 - Low Aug 23

*SUP 2: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 3: 92.752 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from the week's low with

focus remaining on tests of 2017 lows and 91.919-92.548 as a whole. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower with the Bollinger base likely to

be the key concern. Layers of resistance remain with bulls still needing a close

above 93.791 to shift focus back to the key 94.145-476 region. Above 94.476 then

confirms focus on 95.072-464 where the 55-DMA (95.072) is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Remains on 2017 Low

*RES 4: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.180 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: 2.153 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of the 2.229 resistance adds to the significance of

this level and has resulted in bears remaining focused on tests of 2017 lows. A

close below 2.103 is needed to shift immediate bearish focus to the 100-WMA

(2.053) and overall focus to tests of 1.879. The 2.229 resistance remains key

with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above 2.264 to

shift initial focus back to 2.289.

     NYMEX WTI: (V17) Bulls Need Close Above $49.30 

*RES 4: $49.30 - High Aug 14 

*RES 3: $48.75 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $48.59 - Hourly resistance Aug 21a 

*RES 1: $48.42 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $48.39 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.21 - High Aug 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $47.84 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 now support 

*SUP 3: $47.57 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $47.21 - Low Aug 21

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base continues to support with immediate

pressure back on the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above $49.30 to

confirm breaks of 21 & 100-DMAs and to shift initial focus to $50.23-51.27 where

the bear channel top and 200-DMA are situated. Bears now look for a close below

$47.55 see immediate pressure return to $46.63-95 where the 55-DMA is found.

Below $46.63 is needed to end bullish hopes and initially target $45.31-59.

SPOT GOLD: $1267.5-1277.7 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1313.3 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1300.8 - 2017 High Aug 18 

*RES 2: $1298.4 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1293.9 - High Aug 21

*PRICE: $1288.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1286.6 - Hourly support Aug 23 

*SUP 2: $1278.9 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: $1275.6 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs Friday lacked follow through but bounces

ahead of $1277.7 see bulls reconfirming dominance and focus on 2017 highs. The

$1267.5-1277.7 support region remains key. Bears need a close below $1277.7 to

ease bullish pressure and below $1267.5 to shift initial focus to 55 & 100-DMAs

($1254.5-1257.2). Bears initially look for a close below $1286.6 to gain

breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]