MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.1916

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2119 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.2092 Low Jan 1 2016 now res 

*RES 1: $1.1986 2017 High Aug 29

*PRICE: $1.1968 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1943 Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1916 Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: $1.1890 Hourly resistance Aug 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1861 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 highs continue tor the pair as bulls focus on the daily

bull channel top around $1.2119. Daily studies have room to move before O/B is

an issue but the Bollinger top ($1.1949) is now a concern for bulls. Layers of

support continue to build with bears now needing a close below $1.1916 to ease

bullish pressure and below $1.1828 to shift focus back to $1.1663-65 where the

bull channel base is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 3: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2958 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.2946 High Aug 28

*PRICE: $1.2937 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2905 Hourly support Aug 28 

*SUP 2: $1.2868 Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2813 Hourly support Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-DMA as bulls now look for a

close above the 21-DMA to confirm focus on $1.3031 and above this level to shift

focus back to $1.3157-1.3278. Layers of support are accumulating with bears now

needing a close below $1.2905 to ease pressure on the 55 & 21-DMAs and below

$1.2845 to return pressure to $1.2770.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y107.47-108.10

*RES 4: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: Y109.83 High Aug 23 

*RES 2: Y109.48 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.03 Low Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y108.80 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.55 Hourly support Aug 28 

*SUP 2: Y108.32 Hourly support Aug 28a 

*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y107.47 Monthly High July 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y107.47-108.10 support remains key. Bears need a close below

Y108.10 to hint at a shift lower with below Y107.47 to confirm immediate focus

on Y106.95 and overall focus on Y99.08-101.16. Bulls now need a close above

Y109.48 to shift focus back to Y109.75-110.37 where the bear channel top and

21-DMA are situated. Above Y110.37 remains needed to return focus to Y111.05-33

and above this region to target the 200-DMA (Y112.51).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.37 Support Key

*RES 4: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 

*RES 3: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: Y130.97 Hourly resistance Aug 29

*RES 1: Y130.60 Hourly support Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.60 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 2: Y129.37 Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: Y129.01 Hourly support Aug 24 

*SUP 4: Y128.69 Hourly support Aug 24

*COMMENTARY: The Y129.37 support has confirmed significance with support

emerging ahead of this level on the correction lower in early Asia. The Y129.37

support remains key with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to the

55-DMA (Y128.58). While Y129.37 supports bulls retain initial focus on tests of

2017 highs and above Y131.64 needed to confirm focus on 2016 highs (Y132.23).

The Bollinger top (Y131.31) is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern

*RES 4: Gbp0.9412 Monthly high Oct 2009

*RES 3: Gbp0.9365 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 2: Gbp0.9286 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9270 2017 High Aug 25

*PRICE: Gbp0.9248 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9230 Low Aug 28 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9215 Hourly resistance Aug 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9189 Hourly support Aug 23a 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9178 High Aug 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls remain focused on the bull channel top and then

Gbp0.9365-0.9412 above. Current hesitation ahead of recent 2017 highs is a

concern for bulls when combined with O/B studies looking to correct. Bears now

need a close below Gbp0.9215 to shift focus back to the key Gbp0.9149-78 support

region. Below Gbp0.9149 remains needed to shift focus back to Gbp0.9089-0.9112

where the 21-DMA (Gbp0.9112) is located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7863-0.7895 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 3: $0.7973 - High Aug 28

*RES 2: $0.7952 - Hourly support Aug 28 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7940 - Hourly resistance Aug 29

*PRICE: $0.7927 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7903 - Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 2: $0.7895 - Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: $0.7889 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24

*COMMENTARY: Support around the bull channel base last week provided the

catalyst for a break of the key $0.7963 resistance with bulls now focused on

$0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located. Support layers are building with bears

needing a close below $0.7903 To confirm a false break and below $0.7863 to

confirm a break of the channel base ($0.7889) and shift immediate focus to

$0.7789-0.7807 where the 55-DMA ($0.7796) is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Trading Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 

*RES 3: 93.117 - Hourly support Aug 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 92.820 - Hourly resistance Aug 25a 

*RES 1: 92.591 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: 92.245 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.168 - 2017 Low Aug 28

*SUP 2: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3

*SUP 3: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*SUP 4: 91.117 - Low Jan 6 2015

*COMMENTARY: Failure by bulls to capitalise on the recovery from the week's low

last week has resulted in fresh 2017 and 15mth lows and the pair trading below

the 200-WMA for the first time since May 2014. Immediate bearish focus is now on

the 2016 low with a close below to target 89.776-90.325 where 2015 lows are

located. Bulls need a close above the 200-WMA to gain breathing room and above

93.117 to shift focus back to 93.451-94.145.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Remains on 2017 Low

*RES 4: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.131 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.122 - Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 2: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 3: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14 

*SUP 4: 2.054 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of the 2.229 resistance last week added to the

significance of this level and resulted in bears remaining focused on tests of

2017 lows. A close below 2.103 is needed to shift immediate bearish focus to the

100-WMA and overall focus to tests of 1.879. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above 2.155 to gain

breathing room and above 2.180 to shift focus back to 2.206-2.229.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Focus Confirmed On $45.21-58 

*RES 4: $48.36 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $48.20 - High Aug 28 

*RES 2: $47.77 - Hourly resistance Aug 28a 

*RES 1: $47.20 - Hourly resistance Aug 28

*PRICE: $46.80 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $46.64 - Hourly support Aug 28 

*SUP 2: $46.15 - Low Aug 28 

*SUP 3: $45.58 - Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $45.21 - High July 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the $48.91-49.31 resistance region has resulted

in a sell-off and close below the 55-DMA ($46.94) with immediate focus back to

$45.21-58. Bears need a close below $45.21 to shift focus to $42.52 June lows.

Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a close above

$47.20 to gain breathing and above $47.77 to return focus to layers of

resistance $48.20-49.31.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1295.5-1312.0 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 

*RES 3: $1343.6 - High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 1: $1322.3 - Hourly resistance Aug 29

*PRICE: $1317.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.0 - High Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1303.5 - Hourly support Aug 28 

*SUP 3: $1299.5 - Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support a 

*SUP 4: $1295.5 - Hourly support Aug 28a

*COMMENTARY: Volatility Friday saw gold dip into the previously noted

$1267.5-1277.7 support region before rallying aggressively and trading at fresh

2017 and 10mth highs Monday. Initial bullish focus is now on the$1337.4-1352.6

region where monthly highs are situated. Bears now look for a close below

$1312.0 to gain breathing room and below $1295.5 to shift focus back to

$1275.3-1281.3 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]