MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1984 High Aug 30 

*RES 2: $1.1939 Hourly support Aug 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1923 Hourly resistance Sept 1

*PRICE: $1.1901 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1869 Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 2: $1.1823 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $1.1817 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1730 Low Aug 21

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Tuesday's high left the pair looking

heavy Thursday and resulted in a dip below the $1.1828 support before finding

support ahead of the 21-DMA. The $1.1939-84 resistance is key with bulls needing

a close above $1.1984 to target the bull channel top ($1.2153). Bears now look

for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift focus to

$1.1648-1.1709.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2978

*RES 4: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 3: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2978 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: $1.2948 Hourly resistance Sept 1

*PRICE: $1.2929 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2911 Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2895 Hourly resistance Aug 31 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2853 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-DMA ($1.2940) as bulls look

for a close above $1.2978 to confirm focus on $1.3031 and above this level to

shift focus back to $1.3157-1.3278. Layers of support remain in place with bears

now needing a close below $1.2895 to ease pressure on the 55 & 21-DMAs and below

$1.2845 to return pressure to $1.2770.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressure Back on 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.05 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y110.84 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y110.67 High Aug 31 

*RES 1: Y110.40 Hourly support Aug 31 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.96 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.75 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.41 Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 3: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 4: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support

*COMMENTARY: A volatile week sees pressure back on the 21-DMA and the pair

looking a little heavy having remained capped on approach to Y111.05. Bears need

a close below the 21-DMA to reconfirm focus on 107.47-108.10. While the 21-DMA

supports bulls hold a slight advantage but still need a close above Y111.33 to

end bearish hopes and target Y112.18-49 where the 200-DMA is situated. Daily

studies are back at neutral levels and ready for a fresh leg lower.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern

*RES 4: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 3: Y131.70 2017 High Aug 30

*RES 2: Y131.61 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y131.18 Hourly resistance Sept 1

*PRICE: Y130.90 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.68 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: Y130.30 Hourly resistance Aug 29a now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.88 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y129.60 Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The rally that has defined the week so far is hesitating ahead of

recent 2017 highs which is less than ideal given the Bollinger band top limiting

follow through. Bears now need a close below Y130.70 to confirm a correction

back to Y129.00-72 where 21 & 55-DMAs and bull channel base are situated. Below

the 55-DMA is needed to add weight to the case for a test of Y127.43. Bulls need

a close above Y131.18 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9280 Hourly support Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.9270 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.9248 Low Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.9238 High Aug 31

*PRICE: Gbp0.9198 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9186 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9146 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The pair looks a little heavy with an increased risk of a

correction initially to Gbp0.9146-49. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to

hint at move lower that targets Gbp0.8967-0.9048 where the bull channel base

(gbp0.8995) and 55-DMA (Gbp0.8967) are situated. Layers of resistance and

correcting O/B studies are adding weight to the correction case. Bulls need a

close above Gbp0.9248 to regain the upper hand and retain focus on 2016 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7863 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7996 - High Aug 30

*RES 1: $0.7977 - Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7949 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7937 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7917 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7815 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7863 support confirmed significance Thursday with the pair

having looked heavy before bouncing aggressively for a bullish close on the day

that sees bulls focused on $0.7996 today. Bulls need a close above this level to

reconfirm focus on $0.8044-65 and above $0.8065 to reconfirm the bullish bias

and target 2015 highs ($0.8165). Bears now need a close below $0.7917 to return

pressure to $0.7863.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 93.628 - High Aug 23 

*RES 3: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 

*RES 2: 93.347 - High Aug 31 

*RES 1: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 92.633 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.568 - Hourly support Sept 1

*SUP 2: 92.251 - Low Aug 30

*SUP 3: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2017 and 2+ year lows looks to be in

trouble with the rejection above the 21-DMA (93.183) leaving the index looking

heavy. The dip below 92.579 has so far lacked follow through with bears now

needing a close below 92.568 to reconfirm initial focus on 91.514-621 and below

91.514 to target 89.776-90.325. Bulls need a close above 93.347 to ease bearish

pressure and shift focus to 93.451-94.145.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2.054-088

*RES 4: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 2: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.141 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 2.127 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support, Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: 2.054 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 1.991 - Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The correction from recent 2017 lows looks to be in trouble having

remained capped ahead of the 2.155-180 resistance region. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 2.155 to gain breathing room and above 2.180 to shift focus

back to 2.206-2.229. Pressure has returned to the 2.119 support with bears

needing a close below to add weight to the case for a test of the 100-WMA. A

close below the 100-WMA then initially targets 1.991.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bounce Buys Bulls Breathing Room 

*RES 4: $48.91 - High Aug 21 

*RES 3: $48.14 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: $47.94 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $47.47 - High Aug 31

*PRICE: $46.96 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $46.88 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $46.72 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $45.84 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $45.58 - Low July 24 & Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the $45.21-58 support region bears

have so far failed to manage the close below needed to shift overall focus back

to tests of $42.52 June lows. The bounce Thursday provides bulls breathing room

with bulls now looking for a close above the 100-DMA ($48.14) to return

immediate focus to $48.91-49.31. The Bollinger band base ($45.76) remains the

key concern for bears and currently limits follow through.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressure Back On $1326.1-1352.6

*RES 4: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 

*RES 3: $1343.6 - High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 1: $1326.1 - 2017 high Aug 29

*PRICE: $1319.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 2: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $1298.4 - Low Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1295.5 - Hourly support Aug 28a

*COMMENTARY: The $1295.5 support confirmed significance with gold bouncing

aggressively form a dip back towards this level Thursday. The recovery from

Thursday lows sees immediate pressure back on the $1326.1-1352.6 region where

2017 & monthly highs and the daily bull channel top are situated. The Bollinger

top ($1323.2) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below $1213.7

to ease bullish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]