MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1823 & $1.1984 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $1.2070 High Aug 29 

*RES 3: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1984 High Aug 30 

*RES 1: $1.1940 High Sept 5

*PRICE: $1.1910 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1868 Low Sept 5 

*SUP 2: $1.1834 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1730 Low Aug 21

*COMMENTARY: Having lacked follow through on fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs last

week the pair saw pressure return to the 21-DMA with the rejection ahead of

$1.1984 Friday a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears still need a close

below $1.1823 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

$1.1648-1.1732 where the channel base is noted. Bulls look for a close above

$1.1984 to reconfirm focus on the bull channel top ($1.2186).

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Initially Targeting $1.3164

*RES 4: $1.3079 Hourly support Aug 4 

*RES 3: $1.3059 High Aug 7 

*RES 2: $1.3054 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.3044 Hourly resistance Sept 6

*PRICE: $1.3030 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3020 Hourly resistance Sept 5 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3000 Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 3: $1.2979 Hourly support Sept 5a 

*SUP 4: $1.2958 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Cable managed a dip below the 21 ($1.2919) & 100 ($1.2918) DMAs

Tuesday before rallying sharply for a bullish close that sees bullish focus now

on the $1.3164 Aug 4 high. Daily studies approaching O/B and the Bollinger top

are key concerns for bulls. Layers of support are building with bears now

needing a close below $1.2979 to ease bullish pressure.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressure Returns To Key Supports

*RES 4: Y110.48 High Sept 1 

*RES 3: Y109.93 High Sept 4 

*RES 2: Y109.55 Hourly resistance Sept 5a 

*RES 1: Y109.13 Hourly resistance Sept 5

*PRICE: Y108.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.50 Hourly support Sept 6 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y107.47 Monthly High July 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grows as pressure returns to the key

Y107.47-108.10 support following last week's topside failure ahead of 55 &

100-DMAs. Layers of resistance are weighing with bulls needing a close above

Y109.93 to ease bearish pressure. The Y110.67-111.33 resistance remains key this

week with bulls needing a close above Y111.33 to shift focus to Y112.18-45 where

the 200-DMA is noted. Below Y107.47 shifts overall focus to Y99.08-101.15.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.35 High Sept 1

*RES 3: Y130.70 High Sept 4

*RES 2: Y130.26 Hourly resistance Sept 5a

*RES 1: Y129.70 Hourly resistance Sept 5

*PRICE: Y129.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.30 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.31 Low Aug 22 

*SUP 3: Y127.81 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y127.43 Low June 30

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has now shifted to the key 55-DMA support with bears

needing a close below to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base

(Y129.41) to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to Y127.43 June 30

lows. Layers of resistance are building and weighing on the pair with bulls now

needing a close above Y130.26 to gain breathing room and above Y130.70 to shift

focus back to 131.35-70.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Focus Returns To Gbp0.8986-0.9051

*RES 4: Gbp0.9226 High Sept 4

*RES 3: Gbp0.9213 High Sept 5

*RES 2: Gbp0.9174 Hourly support Sept 4 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.9160 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.9136 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9133 Low Sept 5 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9026 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA took its toll with a close below that adds

weight to the case for a move that now targets Gbp0.8986-0.9051 where the 55-DMA

and daily bull channel base are situated. Layers of resistance have accumulated

with bulls now needing a close above Gbp0.9174 to signal a false break of the

21-DMA and shift initial focus back to Gbp0.9226-48. Daily studies have

corrected back to more neutral levels and are giving few clues.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7920 To Pressure $0.7863

*RES 4: $0.8163 - 2015 High May 14

*RES 3: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 2: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 1: $0.8028 - High Sept 5

*PRICE: $0.7986 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7974 - Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 2: $0.7937 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7863 support confirmed significance Thursday. Bulls take

comfort in the break of $0.7996 with focus now on $0.8044-65. Bulls need a close

above $0.8065 to shift initial focus to tests of $0.8163-0.8295 where 2015 highs

are situated. The Bollinger top ($0.8005) is the key concern for bulls and

limits follow through. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7920 to see

pressure back on the $0.7863 support.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.936-93.347 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 93.347 - High Aug 31 

*RES 3: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 2: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 1: 92.445 - Low Sept 4 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.296 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.100 - Low Sept 1

*SUP 2: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 3: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015 

*SUP 4: 91.117 - Low Jan 6 2015

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 21-DMA (93.034) Thursday has left the index

looking heavy with immediate pressure back on the 92.100 support. Overall bears

are focused on 91.514-621 with a close below needed to target 89.776-90.325.

Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close

above 92.936 to return pressure to 93.347. The Bollinger base (92.041) remains

the key concern for bears.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring 100-WMA

*RES 4: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 3: 2.148 - High Sept 5 

*RES 2: 2.115 - Hourly resistance Sept 5a 

*RES 1: 2.093 - Hourly resistance Sept 5

*PRICE: 2.070 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.054 - 100-WMA, 2017 Low Sept 6 

*SUP 2: 1.991 - Low Nov 10 

*SUP 3: 1.879 - High Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 4: 1.716 - Monthly Low Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 2.180 has resulted in a sell-off and

fresh 2017 & 10mth lows that see immediate pressure on the 100-WMA. Bears look

for a close below the 100-WMA to add weight to the case for a test of

1.879-1.991. The Bollinger base (2.089) and modestly O/S studies are concerns

for bears. In saying that, bulls now need a close above 2.115 to gain breathing

room and above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.206-2.229.

NYMEX WTI: (V17) Initial Focus Back On $49.31 

*RES 4: $50.35 - High Aug 10 

*RES 3: $49.74 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $49.31 - High Aug 14 

*RES 1: $48.98 - High Sept 5

*PRICE: $48.56 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.47 - Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 2: $48.15 - Hourly resistance Sept 5 now support 

*SUP 3: $47.85 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $47.65 - High Sept 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the $45.21-58 support region bears

failed to manage the close below needed to shift overall focus back to tests of

$42.52 June lows. The recovery continued Tuesday with the close above the

100-DMA seeing focus back on $49.31. Bulls need a close above $49.31 to hint at

a move back to $50.35-51.27 with a close above the bear channel top confirming.

bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to $46.56.

SPOT GOLD: Bulls Targeting 2016 High

*RES 4: $1375.2 - 2016 High July 6 

*RES 3: $1353.3 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 2016 

*RES 1: $1344.4 - 2017 High Sept 5

*PRICE: $1339.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1326.0 - Low Sept 5 

*SUP 2: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1299.4 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A gapping move higher to start the new week sees fresh 2017 and

12mth highs continuing with immediate bullish focus now on $1352.6-1375.2 where

2016 highs are located. The Bollinger top ($1340.5) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1326.0 to gain breathing room and below

$1313.7 to shift initial focus back to $1294.6-1299.4 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]