MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1926

*RES 4: $1.1995 High Sept 13 

*RES 3: $1.1964 Hourly support Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1926 Low Sept 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1903 Hourly support Sept 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1875 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1868 Low Sept 5 

*SUP 2: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $1.1799 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1721 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2017 highs continues with the pair flirting

with the 21-DMA ($1.1872). Bears focus on $1.1799-1.1823 where the daily bull

channel base is located with below $1.1868 to add weight to their case.

Resistance layers are building with bulls needing a close above $1.1926 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above $1.2045 to reconfirm initial focus on 2017

highs. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3159 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3329 2017 High Sept 13 

*RES 3: $1.3298 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3253 Hourly support Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3224 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.3203 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Sept 12 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3262 Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 3: $1.3224 High Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on Wednesday's 2017 and 14mth

highs is a concern for bulls and leaves the pair looking a little heavy. Daily

studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and the Bollinger top

capping increase the risk of a decent correction. In saying that, the $1.3159

support remains key. Bears need a close below this level to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and to shift focus to $1.2995-1.3019 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above Y111.33

*RES 4: Y111.33 High July 28 

*RES 3: Y111.14 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y110.82 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Y110.78 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y110.51 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.29 Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.91 Low Sept 13 

*SUP 3: Y109.58 Hourly resistance Sept 12 now support 

*SUP 4: Y109.23 Low Sept 12

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains firmly on layers of resistance Y110.78-111.33

where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

higher although the Bollinger top is a concern for bulls. Bulls now look for a

close above Y111.33 to shift initial focus to the 200-DMA (Y112.29). Layers of

resistance continue to build with bears now needing a close below Y109.91 to

ease bullish pressure and below Y108.70 to return focus to 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.63

*RES 4: Y132.25 2016 High Jan 29

*RES 3: Y132.22 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y132.01 2017 High Sept 13

*RES 1: Y131.49 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: Y131.21 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.90 High Sept 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.63 Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.41 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: Y129.82 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite recently trading at 2017 & 20mth highs the hesitation ahead

of 2016 highs and the Bollinger band top are a concern for bulls. Bulls now look

for a close above Y131.49 to retain focus on 2016 highs. The Y130.63 support is

key today. Bears look for a close below Y130.63 to shift immediate focus back to

Y129.25-130.41. Below Y129.25 remains needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA &

channel base, ending bullish hopes and shifting initial focus to Y128.30.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.9064 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Gbp0.9094 Hourly resistance Sept 11

*RES 3: Gbp0.9064 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.9039 High Sept 13

*RES 1: Gbp0.9015 Hourly resistance Sept 13

*PRICE: Gbp0.8993 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8981 Low Sept 12 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8915 Monthly Low Aug 1 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8888 Low July 27 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8848 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears capitalised on the correction from 2017 highs with the pair

trading below the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9014). Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8981 to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8888-0.8915. O/S

daily studies and the Bollinger base (Gbp0.8995) are key concerns for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.9064 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above Gbp0.9153 to target Gbp0.9213-37.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8044-81 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.8081 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.8061 - Hourly resistance Sept 11

*RES 2: $0.8044 - High Sept 13

*RES 1: $0.8016 - Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: $0.8003 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7961 - Low Sept 6, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $0.7883 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs sees the pair flirting with

the daily bull channel base ($0.7992). Bears now look for a close below the

21-DMA to confirm a break of the channel base and below $0.7920 to shift initial

focus to $0.7863-83 where the 55-DMA is located. Daily studies are well placed

for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $0.8044 to gain breathing

room and above $0.8081 to reconfirm initial focus on 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 92.100

*RES 4: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 3: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 2: 92.596 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 92.530 - High Sept 13

*PRICE: 92.448 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.100 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 91.710 - Low Sept 13

*SUP 3: 91.626 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support

*SUP 4: 91.410 - Low Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 92.100 came to an end Wednesday with a break

higher and bullish close that sees immediate focus on 92.530-96.347 where the

21-DMA is located. Bulls need a close above 93.347 to initially pressure the

55-DMA (93.700). A close above the 55-DMA was last seen in early Nov. Bears now

look for a close below 92.100 to gain breathing room and below 91.410 to

reconfirm initial focus on recent 2017 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.118-171 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.241 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.236 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.188 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 3: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11 

*SUP 4: 2.096 - Hourly breakout level Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as they gain traction above the 21-DMA (2.155)

and focus on the 2.206-2.241 region where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Daily

studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue. Layers of support

continue to build with bears needing a close below 2.171 to gain breathing room

and below 2.118 to ease renewed bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to

2.075. Above the 100-DMA initially pressures the bear channel top (2.266).

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) $48.96 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $51.13 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $50.62 - Monthly High Aug 1 

*RES 2: $49.84 - High Sept 9 

*RES 1: $49.72 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $49.63 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13 

*SUP 2: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $48.61 - Low Sept 13 

*SUP 4: $48.24 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from the 55-DMA ($47.92) sees immediate pressure on

$49.84 as X17 flirts with the daily bear channel top ($49.60). Bulls look for a

close above $49.84 to confirm a break of the channel top and shift immediate

focus to $50.62-51.45 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies approaching

O/B and the Bollinger top are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close

below $48.96 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus to DMAs $47.92-48.24.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On $1294.6-1313.9

*RES 4: $1350.5 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1342.1 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance A 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1329.4 - Hourly support Sept 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $1322.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.9 - Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 2: $1313.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 12mth highs lacked follow through Friday with bears

taking comfort in the gapping move lower Monday that eased bullish pressure and

confirms focus on $1294.6-1313.9 where the 21-DMA is located. Below $1294.6 is

needed to target 55 ($1274.2) & 100 ($1264.6) DMAs. Bulls need a close above

$1234.8 to ease bearish pressure and above $1242.1 to target $1375.1 2016 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]