MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.1901

*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 3: $1.2049 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.2045 Hourly resistance Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1.1995 High Sept 13

*PRICE: $1.1949 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1901 Hourly support Sept 15a 

*SUP 2: $1.1868 Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $1.1838 Low Sept 14 

*SUP 4: $1.1823 Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair dipped back towards the daily bull channel base ($1.1821)

last week with bulls taking comfort in the bounce and close above $1.1926. Bulls

now need a close above $1.2045 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2017

highs with overall focus on the channel top ($1.2275). Layers of support are

building and studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a close below $1.1901

to ease bullish pressure.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3450

*RES 4: $1.4612 Low June 21 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4006 Monthly Low Apr 6 2016 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3616 2017 High Sept 15

*PRICE: $1.3593 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3551 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 2: $1.3450 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3381 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3344 Hourly support Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows has now resulted in fresh 2017 and 15mth

highs that see bulls currently focused on $1.4006. Bulls now look for a close

above $1.4006 to add support to the case for a test of $1.5018 2016 highs. Bears

now need a close below $1.3450 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

below $1.3306 to shift focus back to $1.3148 lows from last week. O/B studies

and the Bollinger top ($1.3530) are concerns for bulls.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Key Resistance Caps Friday

*RES 4: Y112.42 High July 20 

*RES 3: Y112.25 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y112.19 High July 26 

*RES 1: Y111.33 High July 28, High Sept 15

*PRICE: Y111.16 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.99 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 2: Y110.62 Hourly support Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y110.29 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 

*SUP 4: Y109.89 Hourly support Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped at/ahead of the key Y111.33 resistance

level last week with bulls continuing to look for a close above Y111.33 to

confirm breaks of 55 (Y110.71) & 100 (Y111.12) DMAs and initially focus on the

200-DMA. The Bollinger top (Y111.18) currently limits follow through and is the

key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y110.62 to gain breathing

room and below Y109.56 to shift focus back to 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Shifts To Y134.59

*RES 4: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 3: Y134.22 High Dec 9 2015

*RES 2: Y133.79 High Dec 16 2015

*RES 1: Y133.08 2017 High Sept 15

*PRICE: Y132.76 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.21 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.75 High Sept 14 now support 

*SUP 3: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y129.55 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The 21 (Y130.55) & 55 (Y129.97) DMAs and channel base have

supported during Sept and support emerging on dips Friday provided the catalyst

for a rally to fresh 2017 and nearly 2yr highs with immediate focus on Y134.59.

Overall bullish focus remains on the channel top (Y138.45). The Bollinger top

(Y132.75) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y131.75

to ease bullish pressure and return focus to the 21-DMA/channel base.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*RES 3: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 2: Gbp0.8867 Low Sept 14 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8832 Hourly resistance Sept 15

*PRICE: Gbp0.8784 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8775 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8739 Monthly Low July 14 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8718 Low June 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8703 200-DMA, 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs continued last week with bears

now focused on Gbp0.0.8703 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. The

sell-off looks a little overdone with O/S daily studies and Bollinger base

(Gbp0.8834) key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance are following the pair

lower with bulls now needing a close above Gbp0.8867 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above Gbp0.8920 to shift focus back to the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9012).

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7953 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.8125 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $0.8081 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.8068 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $0.8061 - Hourly resistance Sept 11

*PRICE: $0.8028 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7981 - Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7953 - Low Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $0.7896 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2017 highs saw the pair dip below the 21-DMA

($0.7971) before finding support ahead of the redrawn bull channel base

($0.7959) Thursday. Bears now look for a close below $0.7953 to break key

supports & see the $0.7863-0.7920 support pressured. Layers of resistance remain

with bulls needing a close above $0.8034 to gain breathing room and above

$0.8081 to reconfirm initial focus on 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 92.661

*RES 4: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 3: 92.661 - High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 92.446 - Hourly resistance Sept 14a 

*RES 1: 92.180 - Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: 91.873 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.732 - Hourly support Sept 15

*SUP 2: 91.577 - Low Sept 15

*SUP 3: 91.410 - Low Sept 11

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows has potentially come to an end with

rejection above the 21-DMA (92.429) and around the daily bear channel top

(92.465) last week. Bears now need a close below 91.577 to add weight to the

case for a retest of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a

close above 92.661 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and above 92.936 to shift

focus to 93.347-762 where the 55-DMA (93.550) is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.118-171 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.239 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.234 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.216 - High Sept 14 

*RES 1: 2.213 - High Sept 15

*PRICE: 2.202 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 3: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11 

*SUP 4: 2.096 - Hourly breakout level Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows is in trouble having been

capped/rejected ahead of the 55 & 100-DMAs. Resistance layers are building and

weighing with bears needing a close below 2.171 to ease bullish pressure, below

2.118 to shift initial focus back to 2.075 and overall focus back to tests of

2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to initially

pressure the bear channel top (2.261) and hint at a test of 2.290.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) $50.88-51.45 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: $51.12 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $50.88 - High Sept 14 

*RES 1: $50.61 - High Sept 15

*PRICE: $50.42 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.21 - Hourly support Sept 15 

*SUP 2: $49.84 - Highs Sept 9 & 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13 

*SUP 4: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows now sees the contract hesitating ahead

of the 200-DMA and $51.45 resistance as daily studies linger at O/B levels.

Bears look for a close below $49.84 to ease bullish pressure and below $48.96 to

shift immediate focus to key DMAs clustered $48.06-57. The $51.45 resistance

remains key. Bulls need a close above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA

and to focus on $52.62 May highs.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1313.7

*RES 4: $1350.5 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1342.1 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance A 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1328.3 - Hourly resistance Sept 15

*PRICE: $1317.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1317.4 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1315.5 - Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the bounce from the 21-DMA Thursday but

pressure returning to this level is less than ideal. Daily studies have

corrected back to more neutral levels with bulls now needing a close above

$1334.8 to gain breathing room and above $1342.1 to shift initial focus to tests

of $1375.2 2016 highs. Bears now need a close below $1313.7 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and below $1295.5 to target the 55-DMA ($1277.5).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]