MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1810-62 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1833 Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1810 Hourly resistance Sept 27a 

*RES 1: $1.1777 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PRICE: $1.1730 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1709 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: $1.1661 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1611 Low July 26 

*SUP 4: $1.1583 High July 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far with bears taking comfort in

the pair gaining traction below the 55-DMA ($1.1809) and focus having shifted to

layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. The Bollinger base ($1.1754) is the key

concern for bears and currently limits follow through. Layers of resistance are

adding to bearish confidence with bulls now needing a close above $1.1810 to

ease bearish pressure and above $1.1862 to shift focus higher.

     CABLE TECHS: Remains Heavy

*RES 4: $1.3514 High Sept 26 

*RES 3: $1.3463 High Sept 27 

*RES 2: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 27a 

*RES 1: $1.3413 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PRICE: $1.3375 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3364 Low Sept 27 

*SUP 2: $1.3328 High Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3288 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs lacked follow through Wednesday with the

correction seeing bearish focus now on the $1.3328-1.3364 support region. Bears

need a close below to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to $1.3158 although

the 21-DMA ($1.3288) may support. Bulls now need a close above $1.3430 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3514 to shift focus higher.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On July Highs

*RES 4: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 3: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y113.60 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Y113.26 High Sept 27

*PRICE: Y113.04 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.65 Hourly support Sept 27 

*SUP 2: Y112.27 Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 3: Y112.05 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.92 Hourly support Sept 26

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through above Y112.85 has been a little lacking

which is a concern with daily studies at O/B levels, momentum divergence and the

Bollinger top capping. Bulls have shifted focus to tests of July highs with

above Y113.70 to add support to their case. Bears now look for a close below the

200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.48 to confirm a shift in

pressure to key DMAs Y110.53-111.05.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Supports Confirming Significance

*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*RES 2: Y133.01 Hourly support Sept 25 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.75 High Sept 27

*PRICE: Y132.55 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.07 Low Sept 27 

*SUP 2: Y131.82 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.74 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 4: Y131.69 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Repeated rejections ahead of the Y134.59 resistance took their toll

with a sell-off and bearish close Monday that saw pressure back on

Y130.47-131.82 where the bull channel base, 21 & 55-DMAs & 200-WMA are located.

Bears need a close below the channel base to add weight to the case for a test

of Y127.42-128.31 with below the 55-DMA to confirm. Bulls still need a close

above Y133.49 to shift focus back to Y134.25-59.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8816 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Gbp0.8839 Hourly resistance Sept 22

*RES 3: Gbp0.8816 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*RES 2: Gbp0.8800 High Sept 26

*RES 1: Gbp0.8782 High Sept 27

*PRICE: Gbp0.8768 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8758 Hourly support Sept 27 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8746 Low Sept 27 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8741 Monthly Low July 14 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8719 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite very O/S studies bears dominate with immediate focus on

Gbp0.8711-18 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. O/S daily studies remain

the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a

close above Gbp0.8816 to ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.8920 to shift

initial focus back to 21 & 55-DMAs (Bbp0.8961-0.9010). Bears look for a close

below the 55-WMA to shift focus to Gbp0.8523.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7781-0.7807

*RES 4: $0.7949 - High Sept 26

*RES 3: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7883 - Hourly resistance Sept 27

*RES 1: $0.7857 - Hourly resistance Sept 28

*PRICE: $0.7826 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7807 - Monthly Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: $0.7758 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7743 - High July 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break and close below the daily bull channel base last week has

been followed up with consolidation below the 55-DMA ($0.7938) and bears now

focused on $0.7781-0.7807 where Aug lows are located. The Bollinger base

($0.7851) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

Layers of resistance are weighing with bulls needing a close above $0.7907 to

gain breathing room and above $0.8036 to shift focus to 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 94.145 - Monthly High Aug 16 

*RES 3: 93.762 - High Aug 18 

*RES 2: 93.628 - High Aug 23 

*RES 1: 93.607 - High Sept 27

*PRICE: 93.531 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.185 - Hourly support Sept 27

*SUP 2: 92.898 - Hourly support Sept 26

*SUP 3: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*SUP 4: 92.433 - Hourly support Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (93.072) Wednesday adds support to the

bullish case with immediate focus now on 94.145-476 where Aug highs are

situated. Bulls need a close above 94.476 to initially pressure the 100-DMA

(94.822) with overall focus shifting to 95.167-464. Layers of support are

building with bears now needing a close below 97.724 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and to shift focus lower once more.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressure Back On 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 2: 2.395 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.366 - High July 13

*PRICE: 2.325 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.316 - High Sept 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.301 - Hourly support Sept 27 & 28 

*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2.208 produced a rally that has seen a break of

the 200-DMA (2.327) in Asian trading and bulls focused on 2.366-2.437 where

monthly highs are located. The Bollinger top (2.349) is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Accumulating supports provide

bulls confidence with bears now needing a close below 2.316 to gain breathing

room and below 2.284 to hint at a move back to 2.208-2.214.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Bulls Focused On Channel Top 

*RES 4: $53.44 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $52.86 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.62 - Monthly High May 25 

*RES 1: $52.43 - High Sept 26

*PRICE: $51.96 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.61 - Hourly support Sept 27 

*SUP 2: $51.43 - Hourly resistance Sept 25 now support, Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: $50.97 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $50.29 - Low Sept 22

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and key resistance layers came to

an end Monday with an aggressive rally and bullish close that sees immediate

bullish focus on $52.43-53.44 and overall focus on $54.94. O/B studies and the

Bollinger band top are key concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears still look

for a close below $51.43 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to shift

focus back to $50.07-29.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Overall Focus On $1236.9-1250.0

*RES 4: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 3: $1304.6 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 1: $1289.5 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1283.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.0 - Low Aug 25 

*SUP 2: $1270.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1265.3 - High Aug 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $1250.0 - Low Aug 8

*COMMENTARY: The failure ahead of $1320.0 on the recovery from last week's low

has resulted in a sell-off and close below the 55-DMA ($1288.4) with immediate

pressure on $1265.3-1275.0 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close

below $1265.3 to confirm focus on $1236.9-1250.0 where the 200-DMA and bull

channel base are situated. Bulls now need a close above $1296.4 to gain

breathing room and above $1320.0 to shift focus higher.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]