MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1801-80 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 3: $1.1849 Hourly resistance Oct 13a 

*RES 2: $1.1826 Hourly resistance Oct 13 

*RES 1: $1.1801 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1768 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1757 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1736 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1669 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $1.1862 resistance lacked follow through with the

pair capped around the daily bear channel top Thursday. Pressure on $1.1795 has

resulted in a break with bears again focused on a move back to the

$1.1583-1.1669 region where the channel base and 100-DMA are noted. Layers of

resistance remain with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing

room and above $1.1880 to shift focus higher.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3121 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3303 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3291 Hourly resistance Oct 17 

*RES 2: $1.3226 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3203 Hourly support Oct 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3187 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3155 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: $1.3142 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3121 Low Oct 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3040 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the 21-DMA took their toll with a close

below $1.3226 that sees immediate focus back to $1.3121-42 where the 55-DMA is

located. Bears now need a close below $1.3121 to shift focus to $1.2995-1.3040.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower having corrected to neutral

levels. Bulls now need a close above $1.3226 to gain breathing room and above

$1.3343 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially target $1.3461.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y112.48-89 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y112.58 High Oct 11 

*RES 1: Y112.48 High Oct 17

*PRICE: Y112.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.04 Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 2: Y111.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 4: Y111.15 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite finding support on dips below the 200-DMA recently, bulls

failed to gain traction on the pop above the 21-DMA (Y112.39) Tuesday. Initial

support is noted at Y112.04 with bears needing a close below to retain focus on

Y111.48-65 and below Y111.48 to initially pressure 100 (Y111.15) & 55 (Y110.79)

DMAs. Bulls now need a close above Y112.58 to ease bearish pressure and above

Y112.89 to shift immediate focus back to Y113.44-70.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*RES 3: Y132.64 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.44 Hourly support Oct 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.21 Hourly support Oct 17 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.10 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.95 Hourly support Oct 18 

*SUP 2: Y131.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: Y131.46 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y131.18 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from last week's Y133.49 topside failure resulted in a

break of Y131.74 but follow through has so far been lacking. Focus has shifted

to the Y130.59-131.18 region where the 55-DMA is noted with a close below

Y130.59 to shift pressure to the 100-DMA (Y129.40). Layers of resistance remain

with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

Y133.49 to shift focus to Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8948

*RES 4: Gbp0.9010 55-DMA

*RES 3: Gbp0.8987 Hourly support Oct 12 now resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.8948 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8931 Hourly resistance Oct 13a

*PRICE: Gbp0.8924 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8908 Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8856 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8746 Monthly Low Sept 27

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 55-DMA last week left the pair looking

heavy and flirting with the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8869). Bulls take comfort on support

emerging on dips below the 21-DMA with pressure having returned to Gbp0.8926-48

where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8948 to return focus

to Gbp0.8987-0.9048 where the 55-DMA is located. Correcting O/B daily studies

are seen weighing at present and remain the key concern for bears.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 100-DMA Supporting, 55-DMA Capping

*RES 4: $0.7910 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7907 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7876 - Hourly resistance Oct 15

*RES 1: $0.7862 - Hourly resistance Oct 16

*PRICE: $0.7853 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7811 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: With bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish

hopes and initially target $0.7986, bears take comfort in the pair remaining

capped ahead of the 55-DMA to start the new week. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 100-DMA to shift focus back to $0.7684-0.7733 where the 200-DMA

and Oct lows are located. Daily studies are currently lingering around neutral

levels and providing few clues.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 93.251

*RES 4: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 93.844 - High Oct 9 

*RES 2: 93.729 - High Oct 17 

*RES 1: 93.593 - Hourly support Oct 17 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.474 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.369 - Hourly support Oct 17

*SUP 2: 93.251 - Hourly support Oct 16

*SUP 3: 93.076 - Low Oct 16

*SUP 4: 92.924 - Hourly support Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips below the 21 (93.180) & 55 (92.929) DMAs

provided bulls comfort and sees focus back on the 94.229-476 region where the

100-DMA (94.229) is situated. Overall bulls need a close above 94.476 to shift

focus to 95.167-464. The lack of topside follow through Tuesday is less than

ideal for bulls. Bears now look for a close below 93.251 to shift focus back to

92.724 and below this level to initially target 91.526-781.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus on 2.208-2.245

*RES 4: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 3: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11 

*RES 2: 2.334 - High Oct 13 

*RES 1: 2.310 - Hourly resistance Oct 17

*PRICE: 2.300 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.237 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's close below 21 (2.303) & 200

(2.314) DMAs is less than ideal for bears who are focused on 2.208-2.245 where

55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The spike higher Tuesday lacked follow through and

leaves the yield looking a little heavy. Bears now need a close below Tuesday's

low to add weight to the case. Bulls now need a close above 2.334 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above 2.402 to return initial focus to 2.437.

NYMEX WTI: (Z17) Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA 

*RES 4: $53.73 - Low Apr 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 2: $52.97 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $52.65 - High Oct 16

*PRICE: $52.37 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $52.15 - Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 2: $51.96 - Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $51.48 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: $51.37 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A volatile week resulted in a bullish close with the break of

$52.08 adding support to the bullish case for a test of the $53.11-54.63 region

where monthly highs and the bull channel top are located. Daily studies have

room to move before O/B is an issue. Layers of support remain with bears now

needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate

focus back to $49.44-90 where the 55-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD: Bears Need Close Below $1277.6

*RES 4: $1309.3 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 2: $1298.3 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $1290.8 - Hourly resistance Oct 17

*PRICE: $1287.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.2 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1275.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to gain traction above 21 & 55 ($1287.0 &

1296.3) DMAs with Tuesday's sell-off continuing to work through support layers.

The $1277.6 support remains key with a close below needed to shift focus back to

$1244.8-1260.5 where the 200-DMA ($1257.1) and bull channel base are situated.

Bulls now need a close above $1298.3 to retain focus on $1306.0-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]