MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting with 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 2: $1.1849 Hourly resistance Oct 13a 

*RES 1: $1.1826 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: $1.1799 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1782 Hourly resistance Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1731 Low Oct 18 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1669 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through has been lacking the past two days as

support emerges on dips back to the 200-WMA ($1.1692). Wednesday's recovery sees

the pair flirting with the 21-DMA ($1.1797). Layers of resistance remain

$1.1826-80 with the 55-DMA at $1.1839. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA

to gain breathing room and above $1.1880 to shift focus to $1.2033. Bears now

need a close below $1.1731 to reconfirm focus on $1.1583-1.1669.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3121 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3311 High Oct 16 

*RES 2: $1.3291 Hourly resistance Oct 17, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3228 Hourly resistance Oct 19

*PRICE: $1.3209 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3143 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3121 Low Oct 12 

*SUP 3: $1.3041 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3028 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from recent 21-DMA topside failures has found support

on dips below the 55-DMA with bulls now needing a close above $1.3228 to shift

focus back to $1.3291-1.3343 where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls need a close

above $1.3343 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially target $1.3461.

Bears still need a close below $1.3121 to shift focus to $1.2995-1.3041.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y113.15 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y112.94 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.75 Hourly support Oct 18 

*SUP 2: Y112.46 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.04 Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 4: Y111.65 Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: The pair found support on dips below the 200-DMA (Y111.74) with

bulls taking comfort gaining traction above the 21-DMA (Y112.46). The Bollinger

band top is currently capping but daily studies remain well placed for gains.

The 21-DMA is key support today with bears needing a close below to ease bullish

pressure. Overall below Y111.48 is needed to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs. Bulls

now look for a close above Y113.70 to pressure 2017 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Returns To Y133.49

*RES 4: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 3: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 2: Y133.85 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25 & High Oct 12

*PRICE: Y133.29 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.68 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y132.44 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y131.95 Hourly support Oct 18

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from last week's Y133.49 topside failure resulted in a

break of Y131.74 but follow through was lacking. The rally Wednesday managed a

close above the 21-DMA with immediate pressure on Y133.49. Bulls look for a

close above this level to shift immediate focus to Y134.25-134.59. Layers of

support are building with bears needing a close below Y132.44 to shift focus

back to Y131.25-131.65 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8948

*RES 4: Gbp0.9033 High Oct 12

*RES 3: Gbp0.9008 55-DMA

*RES 2: Gbp0.8987 Hourly support Oct 12 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8948 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8932 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8924 Hourly support Oct 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8908 Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8856 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 55-DMA last week left the pair looking

heavy and flirting with the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8865). Bulls take comfort on support

emerging on dips below the 21-DMA but the failure ahead of Gbp0.8948 is less

than ideal. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8948 to return focus to

Gbp0.8987-0.9048 where the 55-DMA is located. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8856

to shift focus back to Gbp0.8728-57.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7809

*RES 4: $0.7951 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: $0.7908 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7907 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7876 - Hourly resistance Oct 15

*PRICE: $0.7850 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7815 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7809 - High Oct 11 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 4: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: With bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish

hopes and initially target $0.7986, bears take comfort in the pair remaining

capped ahead of the 55-DMA so far this week. Bears now look for a close below

$0.7809 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and shift focus back to $0.7686-0.7733

where the 200-DMA and Oct lows are located. Overall a close below the 200-DMA

hints at a move initially targeting $0.7513.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 93.844 - High Oct 9 

*RES 2: 93.797 - High Oct 18 

*RES 1: 93.658 - Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.379 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.251 - Hourly support Oct 16

*SUP 2: 93.214 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.076 - Low Oct 16

*SUP 4: 92.936 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips below the 21 & 55 DMAs provided bulls

comfort and sees focus back on the 94.190-476 region where the 100-DMA (94.190)

is situated. Overall bulls need a close above 94.476 to shift focus to

95.167-464. The lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for bulls.

Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 92.724 and

below this level to initially target 91.526-781.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns To 2.371-437

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: 2.343 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.325 - Hourly support Oct 18 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 3: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's close below 21 (2.310) & 200

(2.313) DMAs has seen higher daily lows with pressure resulting in a close above

2.334 and focus now having returned to the 2.372-437 region. Above 2.437 remains

needed to shift initial focus to 2.544-558 and overall focus to 2017 highs

(2.628). Bears now look for a close below 2.325 to gain breathing room and below

2.278 to shift focus back to 2.208-245.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA 

*RES 4: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $53.05 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.65 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $52.39 - Hourly resistance Oct 19

*PRICE: $52.26 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.92 - Low Oct 18 

*SUP 2: $51.48 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 3: $51.42 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $50.75 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $52.65-53.11 region is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above to shift focus to $53.73-55.03 where the

bull channel top ($54.70) is located. The 21-DMA remains key support. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift

immediate focus back to $49.44-50.13 where the 55-DMA is noted. A close below

the 200-DMA would add weight to the bearish case.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: 100-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1298.3 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1296.3 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1290.8 - Hourly resistance Oct 17 

*RES 1: $1284.4 - Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1277.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1260.6 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above 21 & 55 ($1285.5 & 1296.3) DMAs has

resulted in further losses and immediate pressure on the 100-DMA. Bears need a

close below the 100-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of $1243.4-1260.1

where the daily bull channel base ($1245.3) and 200-DMA ($1257.5) are noted.

Bulls now need a close above $1290.8 to ease immediate bearish pressure and

above $1306.0 to pressure $1313.6-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]