MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1880 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 2: $1.1865 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.1841 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1823 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1811 Hourly support Oct 26 

*SUP 2: $1.1799 Hourly support Oct 25 

*SUP 3: $1.1783 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1742 Low Oct 24

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees pressure back on the 55-DMA

as the pair flirts with the bear channel top ($1.1821) and gains traction above

the 21-DMA ($1.1783). Bulls now look for a close above $1.1880 to confirm breaks

of the channel top and 55-DMA, shifting focus back to $1.2033. The Bollinger

band top is the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA

to ease pressure on key resistance layers.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3191-1.3225 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3393 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3279 Hourly resistance Oct 26

*PRICE: $1.3264 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3225 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3191 Hourly resistance Oct 24 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3140 Hourly resistance Oct 24 now support a

*SUP 4: $1.3110 Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 21-DMA and $1.3228 has taken its toll

with a close above that ends bearish hopes for now and sees immediate focus on

$1.3343. Bulls now need a close above this level to initially target

$1.3461-1.3550 where the LT weekly bear channel top is located. Bears now need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $1.3191 to

shift focus back to $1.2995-1.3088.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y112.30-113.06 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y115.34 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 3: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 2: Y114.24 High Oct 25 

*RES 1: Y113.82 Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: Y113.54 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.25 Low Oct 24 

*SUP 2: Y113.06 Hourly support Oct 20a 

*SUP 3: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 4: Y112.30 Low Oct 19

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y114.49 resistance is less than ideal for bulls

with the Bollinger top (Y113.84) limiting follow through. The Y112.30-113.06

support remains key. Bears look for a close below Y113.06 to ease bullish

pressure and below Y112.30 to shift focus back to Y111.16-72 where key DMAs are

noted. While Y113.06 supports bulls focus on the break of Y114.49 needed to

shift focus to Y115.34-62 but need a close above Y113.82 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.59 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y138.17 Weekly Bull channel top

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 1: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*PRICE: Y134.24 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.99 Hourly support Oct 25 

*SUP 2: Y133.75 Hourly support Oct 25a 

*SUP 3: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24 

*SUP 4: Y133.03 Low Oct 23

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y134.59 is less than ideal for bulls who look

for a close above Y134.59 to potentially target Y139.02-141.05. Daily studies

approaching O/B and the Bollinger band top (Y134.29) remain concerns for bulls

and currently limit follow through. Bears now need a close below Y133.50 to ease

bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (Y132.89) to hint at a deeper sell-off

targeting Y131.63-65 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8856 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Gbp0.8998 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8975 High Oct 24 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8948 Hourly support Oct 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8925 Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: Gbp0.8914 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8889 Hourly support Oct 25 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8879 Low Oct 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8856 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8802 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8909) has lacked follow through with

bears now needing a close below Gbp0.8856 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8727-57

where the 200-DMA & 55-WMA are situated. The Gbp0.8975-0.9048 resistance region

remains key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8975 to ease bearish pressure and

above Gbp0.9048 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to Gbp0.9107-0.9202.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7829 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7796 - Low Oct 23 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: $0.7711 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7631 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7564 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: $0.7513 - Low June 9

*COMMENTARY: Bears have dominated resulting in a break of $0.7712 and pressure

on the 200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA and a weekly close below

$0.7712 to shift focus back to $0.7325-0.7431 where the weekly bull channel base

& May lows are situated. The Bollinger base ($0.7713) is the key concern for

bears. Bulls need a close above $0.7765 to ease bearish pressure and above

$0.7907 to end bearish hopes and shift initial focus to $0.7986.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: 94.267 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 94.039 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.036 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.750 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: 93.532 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.459 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.347 - Hourly support Oct 20A

*SUP 3: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 4: 92.952 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 94.036-476 resistance region remains key with hesitation ahead

followed by the break below 93.682 leaving the index looking heavy and flirting

with the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the case

for a correction back to 92.724-93.055. Overall below 92.724 is needed to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift focus back to 91.781. Bulls need a close

above 93.750 to gain breathing room.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 2.550 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.475 - High Oct 25 

*RES 1: 2.448 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: 2.428 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.414 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 2.394 - Hourly support Oct 24 

*SUP 3: 2.363 - Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 4: 2.347 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue although the lack of topside follow

through is less than ideal. The Bollinger top (2.428) is the key concern for

bulls and currently limits follow through. The 2.347-2.394 support region is key

today. Bears now need a close below 2.394 to ease bullish pressure and below the

21-DMA to initially pressure the 200-DMA (2.314) and hint at a correction back

to 2.247-278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Still Need Close Above $53.11 

*RES 4: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $53.00 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.65 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $52.41 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: $52.11 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.89 - Low Oct 25 

*SUP 2: $51.55 - Low Oct 24 

*SUP 3: $51.45 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $50.87 - Low Oct 20

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of $52.65-53.11 remains a concern with

bulls needing a close above to shift focus to $53.73-55.05 where the bull

channel top ($55.05) is located. The 21-DMA remains key support today with bears

needing a close below to ease immediate bullish pressure and shift focus to

$50.13-87 where the 55 ($50.13) & 200 ($50.63) DMAs are noted. Daily studies are

looking to correct from modestly O/B adding weight to the bearish case.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Remains Supported Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1297.6 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 2: $1285.9 - Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 1: $1282.4 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1280.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.4 - Hourly support Oct 25 

*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1264.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1260.6 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Yet another dip below the 100-DMA ($1275.1) has again failed to

produce the close below needed to see bears confirm focus on tests of

$1243.4-1260.1 where the daily bull channel base ($1248.1) and 200-DMA ($1259.4)

are noted. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above $1306.0 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially focus

on $1313.6-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]