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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
10 November 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Risking Correction To $1.1690-1.1732
*RES 4: $1.1732 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.1722 100-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1690 High Nov 3
*PRICE: $1.1646 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1638 Hourly support Nov 9 & 10
*SUP 2: $1.1622 Hourly support Nov 9
*SUP 3: $1.1579 Low Nov 8
*SUP 4: $1.1554 Low Nov 7
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the week's low so far saw a close above $1.1624,
easing immediate bearish pressure and increasing the risk of a correction back
to layers of resistance $1.1690-1.1732 where the bear channel top is located.
Bulls continue to look for a close above the channel top to shift focus to
$1.1810-80 where the 55-DMA is situated. Bears now need a close back below
$1.1622 to return immediate pressure to $1.1554.
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3320 High Nov 1
*RES 2: $1.3215 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1.3179 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1.3145 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3127 Hourly support Nov 9
*SUP 2: $1.3085 Low Nov 8
*SUP 3: $1.3061 Weekly Bull Channel Base
*SUP 4: $1.3024 Monthly Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. Despite
focus shifting lower bears have failed to trouble the key $1.2995 support. Bears
continue to look for a close below the $1.2995 support to confirm a break lower,
initially targeting the 200-DMA ($1.2869) with overall focus shifting to $1.2587
June lows. Above the 55-DMA remains needed to ease bearish pressure and return
focus to $1.3320-43.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On Y112.95
*RES 4: Y114.72 Hourly resistance Nov 6
*RES 3: Y114.42 Hourly resistance Nov 6a
*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 1: Y113.69 Hourly resistance Nov 9
*PRICE: Y113.43 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.95 Low Oct 31
*SUP 2: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support
*SUP 3: Y112.30 Low Oct 19
*SUP 4: Y112.01 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Having supported bears take comfort in the close below the 21-DMA
(Y113.39) that sees pressure on Y112.95. Bears need a close below Y112.95 to
gain traction below the 21-DMA and shift focus to Y111.46-112.30 where key DMAs
are situated. Bulls now look for a close above Y114.07 to ease bearish pressure
and return focus to Y114.72 above which is needed to reconfirm a bullish bias
with above Y115.62 to shift focus to tests of 2017 highs.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.61 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24
*RES 3: Y133.14 High Nov 2
*RES 2: Y132.61 Hourly support Nov 6 now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.41 High Nov 7
*PRICE: Y132.13 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.40 Low Nov 8
*SUP 2: Y130.91 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y130.59 Low Sept 15
*SUP 4: Y129.34 Low Sept 6
*COMMENTARY: Bears are struggling to gain traction below the 55-DMA (Y132.22).
Layers of resistance remain. Bulls still need a close above Y132.61 to return
pressure to Y133.14 and above this level to confirm an easing of bearish
pressure and to shift immediate focus to Y134.50-59. A close above Y134.59
potentially targets Y139.00-141.00. Bears now need a close below Y131.40 to add
weight to their case and below Y130.59 to target Y127.50.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.8933 55-DMA
*RES 3: Gbp0.8913 Hourly resistance Now 3
*RES 2: Gbp0.8893 Hourly resistance Nov 3a
*RES 1: Gbp0.8875 21-DMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8859 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8845 Hourly support Nov 9
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8824 Low Nov 9
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8791 Low Nov 7
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8766 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.8718 support remains key with bears needing a close below
to confirm breaks of the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8766) & 55-WMA (Gbp0.8722 and shift focus
to tests of the bear channel base (Gbp0.8476). Bulls now look for a close above
the 21-DMA to shift focus to layers of resistance with bulls then needing a
close above Gbp0.8974 to shift focus to Gbp0.9022/48. Bears now need a close
below Gbp0.8824 to gain breathing room.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7622 Support Key, 200-DMA Still Capping
*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25
*RES 2: $0.7727 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: $0.7697 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7687 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27
*SUP 2: $0.7577 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: $0.7564 - Low June 26
*SUP 4: $0.7485 - Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $0.7622 support remains a concern for bears
given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears continue to look for a
close below $0.7622 to add weight to the case for a test of $0.7485-0.7564 where
the channel base is located. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls
still need a close above $0.7768 to confirm breaks of DMAs and the channel top,
shifting focus to $0.7839-0.7909 where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressure Back On Key Supports
*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20
*RES 3: 94.965 - Hourly resistance Nov 8
*RES 2: 94.855 - Hourly resistance Nov 9a
*RES 1: 94.556 - Hourly resistance Nov 9
*PRICE: 94.500 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 94.408 - Low Nov 3
*SUP 2: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support
*SUP 3: 94.200 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 93.761 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The persistent lack of topside follow through has taken its toll
with a sell-off and bearish close that sees pressure back on support layers.
Bears need a close below 94.267 to pressure the channel base, 100 & 21-DMAs and
below the channel base to pressure 92.724-93.477. Layers of resistance are
accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above 94.965 to return
focus to 95.167-464.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.304 & 2.365 Levels Key
*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1
*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance
*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2
*RES 1: 2.345 - High Nov 9
*PRICE: 2.342 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.304 - Low Nov 8
*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16
*SUP 3: 2.273 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.267 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal close below the 200-DMA
(2.311) with bulls taking comfort in Wednesday's recovery. Layers of resistance
remain. Bulls need a close above 2.365 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.356)
easing bearish pressure, above 2.419 to return initial focus to 2.477 and
overall focus to 2.544-580. Bears now need a close below 2.304 to confirm a
break of the 200-DMA and target 2.245-278.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Correction Risk Heightened
*RES 4: $59.69 - High June 30 2015
*RES 3: $57.94 - Low June 30 2015 now resistance
*RES 2: $57.92 - 2017 High Nov 8
*RES 1: $57.33 - High Nov 9
*PRICE: $57.03 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $56.69 - Low Nov 9
*SUP 2: $56.28 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support
*SUP 3: $55.62 - Hourly support Nov 3
*SUP 4: $55.22 - High Nov 1 now support
*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal Wed combined with momentum divergence
and studies looking to correct from very O/B greatly increases the risk of a
correction. Bears continue to look for a close below $56.28 to confirm an easing
of bullish pressure and below $55.22 to hint at a move back to $53. 75-96 where
the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above $57.94 to reconfirm a bullish bias
targeting the 200-WMA ($60.75).
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Support Layers Accumulating
*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16
*RES 3: $1297.1 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: $1295.7 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19
*PRICE: $1286.0 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1281.7 - Hourly support Nov 9
*SUP 2: $1278.6 - Hourly support Nov 8
*SUP 3: $1271.8 - Low Nov 7
*SUP 4: $1265.2 - Low Nov 3
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA has seen breaks of the 21-DMA
($1280.2) and bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move
initially targeting $1320.0 with above $1306.0 to confirm. The $1243.8 $1265.2
support region where the 200-DMA and channel base ($1254.2) are located remains
key. Bears need a close below $1243.8 to shift initial focus to Sept lows
($1204.6) and overall focus to 2017 lows ($1146.0).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.