MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/odhzp44

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters On Approach To $1.1690

*RES 4: $1.1761 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 3: $1.1749 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: $1.1655 @0610GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1623 Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.1600 Hourly congestion area Nov 8-9

*SUP 3: $1.1579 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level last Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1660 area is a positive and eyes are now on the

the slightly higher $1.1690 high from Nov 3. Clearly above the latter would give

the recovery a further boost. Meanwhile, Friday's $1.1623 low is initial

support, with $1.1600-$1.1579 then protecting that $1.1554-55 area again.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Sees Move Back Toward Base Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3284 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3255 76.4% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 2: $1.3230/40 Nov 10 low, Nov 1 low

*RES 1: $1.3180/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3123 @0620GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3107 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3085/86 Nov 9, Nov 8 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3070 Congestion area Nov 3-Nov 6

*SUP 4: $1.3027/39 Oct 6, Nov 3 lows

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3230 on Friday, the rally flattering to deceive and

falling back quickly as a result. A low of $1.3107 on the day so far, leaving us

just above the key $1.3085-$1.3070 area. Lose here and the base of the range at

$1.3027 becomes vulnerable. Resistance falls to $1.3180-85, needing back above

the latter to improve again and look for another challenge to $1.3230-40.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Another Downside Assault But Still Within Recent Range

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: Y113.70/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.45 @0624GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.62 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall last week after the less than successful break

above Y114.45-50 on Monday. At the moment, the decline is still within the

confines of the recent range, with support found around Y113.09 on Thursday.

This currently the protection to the base of the range and key Y112.96 level. In

the meantime, nearest resistance falls to Y113.70-Y114.07 but will need to climb

back above Y114.34, before the recent bear bias will be reduced.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.00 Becomes Pivotal To Intraday Direction

*RES 4: Y133.70 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y133.15 Nov 2 high

*RES 2: Y132.85 Hourly congestion Nov 3

*RES 1: Y132.60 Nov 10 high

*PRICE: Y132.20 @0630GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.69 Hourly base Nov 9

*SUP 3: Y131.40 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move through Y132.27-Y132.42 resistance on Friday,

culminating in a high of Y132.60 so far. Will need to see an added rise through

Y132.85 however, before the near term bias for higher will be confirmed and

another challenge to the Nov 2 high at Y133.15. In the meantime, look to Y132.00

for initial support, a loss will caution now and point towards a deeper

Y131.69-Y131.40 pullback.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Continues Stg0.8885-Stg0.8912 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8939 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8924 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8912 Hourly recovery high Nov 3

*RES 1: Stg0.8885/90 Hourly recovery high Nov 6, Nov 10 high 

*PRICE: Stg0.8882 @0639GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8830/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8811 Nov 10 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8791 Nov 7 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8782/84 76.4% of Stg0.8733-Stg0.8939, Nov 1 high

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8791 last Tuesday, thereby saving the

downside from a test to the pivotal Stg0.8784-Stg0.8782 area. That said, still

has some work to do, the subsequent move above back Stg0.8850 has been helpful

and allows for some greater correction of the recent fall from the month's

earlier Stg0.8939 high. This now sees Stg0.8885-Stg0.8912 come back into play.

In the meantime, Thursday's Stg0.8830-40 now acts as intermediate support.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Still Needs A $0.7701 Break To Be Of Consequence

*RES 4: $0.7770 Oct 24 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7754 50% Fibo of $0.7884-$0.7625

*RES 2: $0.7724/30 38.2% of $0.7884-$0.7625, Nov 3 high

*RES 1: $0.7695/01 Nov 10, Nov 7 highs

*PRICE: $0.7661 @0640GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7625/31 Oct 27 low, 1.618 swing of $0.7733-$0.7898

*SUP 2: $0.7571 Jul 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7560 1.618 swing of $0.7625-$0.7730

*SUP 4: $0.7535 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Another test towards $0.7625 support last Tuesday, before

recovering, aided by some oversold hourly conditions. To be of any substance

however, then rallies must firstly make it back through $0.7695 and then more

importantly Tuesday's $0.7701 high. While capped here, then the near term bias

will remain for lower and eventually another $0.7625 challenge. Beneath which

the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7599 then protects $0.7571-$0.7560.

     GOLD TECHS: Swift Fall After Failed Challenge To $1289.9 Fibo Resistance

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1276.8 @0642GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, to close the week just above the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Will need to

remain above this latter level, if the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5

low at the beginning of the month, is to survive. Resistance falls in the

meantime, $1282.7 now the bar to any upside renaissance.

     OIL TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (Z17) Correction Risk Continues Below $57.92

*RES 4: $58.44 Jan 2 high

*RES 3: $57.92 Nov 8 high

*RES 2: $57.53 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: $57.35 Nov 10 high

*PRICE: $56.75 @0645GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $56.51/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $56.41 Nov 8 low

*SUP 3: $55.66 Nov 6 low

*SUP 4: $54.68 38.2% Fibo of $49.44-$57.92

*COMMENTARY: Still suffering as a result of the bearish outside day last

Wednesday. In this respect, a loss of firstly $56.51 support and then the Nov 8

low at $56.41 is needed, before the risk for a downside correction increases. In

the meantime, $57.35-$57.53 provides near term resistance against a renewed

challenge to the Nov 8 high at $57.92. Through here and then not much showing

ahead of $58.44.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]