MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 21-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1880 High Oct 12

*RES 3: $1.1861 High Nov 15 

*RES 2: $1.1822 High Nov 17 

*RES 1: $1.1781 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1744 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1683 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1678 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1638 Hourly support Nov 9 & 10

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top and 100-DMA last week saw a

rally, only to remain capped ahead of the previously noted $1.1880 resistance.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1880 to confirm traction above the

55-DMA ($1.1781) and initially target $1.2033. O/B Daily studies now correcting

is less than ideal for bulls and adds weight to the bearish case. Bears need a

close below the 21-DMA to target $1.1554.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3343 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: $1.3299 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.3279 High Nov 20

*PRICE: $1.3256 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3208 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 2: $1.3170 Low Nov 17 

*SUP 3: $1.3118 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 4: $1.3060 Low Nov 13

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. The

recovery from ahead of the range base is again struggling with the 55-DMA

($1.3250) as a lack of follow through on breaks persists. Bulls need a close

above $1.3279 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and pressure the key $1.3343

level. Bears now need a close below $1.3208 to ease pressure on resistance

layers.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.48 & Y112.72 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.39 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 1: Y112.72 Low Nov 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.28 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.72 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.70 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: Y111.48 Low Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: The Y112.72 resistance has confirmed significance having capped the

past two days and leaving the pair looking a little heavy. Bulls continue to

look for a close above Y112.72 to ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to Y113.33-39 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears still need a close below Y111.48

to confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs with initial focus shifting to Y109.52 and

overall focus to Y107.30 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA & Y131.17 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: Y133.66 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 3: Y133.18 High Nov 17

*RES 2: Y132.51 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.10 Hourly resistance Nov 22

*PRICE: Y131.71 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.83 Hourly resistance Nov 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.26 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.17 Hourly support Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy bears failed to take out the 100-DMA with

bulls taking comfort in pressure returning to 21 & 55-DMAs. Bulls look for a

close above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Y133.86-148.50. While the 21-DMA

caps bears retain focus on the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below Y131.17 to

confirm a break and hint at a move back to Y127.42. The Bollinger base is noted

at Y131.19 and is the key concern.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8968 High Now 16 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8953 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 High Nov 20 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8884 High Nov 21

*PRICE: Gbp0.8857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8837 Low Nov 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8789 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8781 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8757 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of Gbp0.8718 failed ahead of the Gbp0.9022

resistance with the pair looking heavy again. The close below the 21-DMA

(Gbp0.8863) eased bullish pressure and shifted focus back to Gbp0.8718-89 where

the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8904 to

ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.9868 to shift initial focus to Gbp0.9107.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7519 & $0.7609 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 3: $0.7694 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7646 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $0.7609 - High Nov 16

*PRICE: $0.7566 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7532 - Low Nov 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7456 - Weekly Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7405 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA in recent weeks retained the

integrity of the daily bear channel with focus currently on the $0.7456-0.7519

region where the weekly bull channel base is situated. Bears need a close below

$0.7519 to reconfirm the bearish bias and below the weekly bull channel base to

target $0.7319-65. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7609 to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to $0.7646-0.7730.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.374 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14

*PRICE: 93.909 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.873 - Hourly support Nov 22

*SUP 2: 93.578 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.459 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with the close below the 21-DMA seeing

pressure back on key supports. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of

this region Monday but continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above 94.650 to shift focus back to 95.167-464. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a

move back to 2017 lows although a close below 92.724 remains needed to confirm.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.386-419 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.386 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 1: 2.379 - High Nov 16

*PRICE: 2.358 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.335 - Low Nov 21 

*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Nov 15 

*SUP 3: 2.309 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.306 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Dips last week found support ahead of the 200-DMA with the

2.273-3.319 support region remaining key. 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted in this

region with bears needing a close below 2.273 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and

shift immediate focus to 2.207. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.419

to return initial focus to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580 with a close

above 2.379 to add support to their case.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) Above $58.14 Targets Bull Channel Top 

*RES 4: $60.05 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 3: $59.19 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 2: $58.88 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $58.14 - 2017 High Nov 8

*PRICE: $57.75 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.22 - High Nov 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $56.88 - Hourly support 21 Nov 

*SUP 3: $56.27 - Hourly resistance Nov 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $55.78 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs found support ahead of the

21-DMA which provided the base for a rally and bullish close Friday. Gains this

week see bulls focused on the break of $58.14 needed to initially target the

daily bull channel top. Bears need a close below $55.75 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and below $55.00 to shift focus to $53.00-96 where the 55-DMA and

daily bull channel base are situated.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1297.0

*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1297.0 - Hourly Nov 17 

*RES 2: $1290.1 - Hourly resistance Nov 20 

*RES 1: $1284.8 - High Nov 21

*PRICE: $1279.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1274.9 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 3: $1265.1 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Friday's close above the 55-DMA

($1289.4) with focus back on the daily bull channel base ($1258.66) and 200-DMA.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1297.0 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and confirm focus on $1306.0-1320.0. Bears continue to look for a close

below the channel base to hint at a move back to July lows ($1204.6) with below

$1243.5 confirming.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]