MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bull Channel Base Supports

*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $1.2037 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 1: $1.1931 High Nov 30

*PRICE: $1.1912 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1884 High Nov 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1817 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1813 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 4: $1.1761 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1813 level confirmed significance with Thursday's bounce

retaining the integrity of the daily bull channel base. Immediate focus is now

on $1.1961 with a close above to see bulls targeting $1.2031-92 where the bull

channel top is noted. Bears now look for a close below $1.1813 to ease immediate

bullish pressure and below $1.1690 to confirm traction below key DMAs and shift

focus to tests of $1.1552 Nov lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Close Below $1.3430 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.3833 Monthly Low Mar 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 1: $1.3559 High Nov 30

*PRICE: $1.3525 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3479 Hourly resistance Nov 30 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3430 Hourly support Nov 30 

*SUP 3: $1.3373 Hourly support Nov 29 

*SUP 4: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7week highs continue with bulls now needing a weekly close

above the LT bear channel top at $1.3470 to shift overall focus to

$1.3656-1.3833. O/B daily studies and Bollinger band top ($1.3496) remain key

concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $1.3430 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below $1.3373 to shift focus back to

$1.3161-1.3266 where key DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Target Y114.72

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 2: Y112.72 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y112.67 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y112.55 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.28 Hourly support Nov 30 

*SUP 2: Y111.68 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 200-DMA was reinforced with the 200-DMA providing

the base for an aggressive bounce that saw pressure on 21 & 55-DMAs. Bulls now

need a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to

Y113.33 and overall focus to tests of Y114.74 Nov highs. Initial support is

noted at Y112.28 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room but

below the 200-DMA remains needed to return pressure to Y110.83 Nov lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus On 2017 High

*RES 4: Y136.95 Monthly High Oct 9 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 1: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*PRICE: Y134.10 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.31 Hourly resistance Nov 30 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.65 Hourly support Nov 30 

*SUP 3: Y132.53 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.71 Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA has provided the

base for a close above Y133.23 that sees immediate bullish focus back on tests

of 2017 highs. Bulls now need a close above Y134.50 to shift overall focus to

the Y139.02-141.04 region last seen in 2015. Bulls will need a close above

Y136.95 to add support to their case. Bears now look for a close below Y133.31

to ease pressure on 2017 highs and target a correction back to Y130.59-131.71.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8717 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8954 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8873 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8843 Hourly resistance Nov 29

*PRICE: Gbp0.8803 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8774 Bollinger band base, Low Nov 30 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8724 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8649 Monthly Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8955) and bear channel top

have resulted in a dip below the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8794) but so far follow through

has been lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and shift focus back to Gbp0.8949-81 where the bear channel top

and 100-DMA are noted. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8717 to reconfirm a bearish

bias and target Gbp0.8474-83 where the bear channel base and 100-WMA are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7519 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7692 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7644 - High Nov 28

*RES 2: $0.7612 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7601 - Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: $0.7565 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7532 - Low Nov 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7530 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through around the 21-DMA resulted in a

move back towards the key $0.7519 support. Bears continue to look for a close

below $0.7519 to reconfirm focus on tests of $0.7319-42 where the daily bear

channel base is situated. The $0.7644 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close

above to confirm a break of the bear channel top and 21-DMA, shifting immediate

bullish focus to the 200-DMA and then $0.7730-68 with the 55-DMA at $0.7750.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Caps, Index Looks Offered

*RES 4: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 2: 93.592 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.122 - Hourly resistance Nov 30

*PRICE: 92.965 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.729 - Low Nov 30

*SUP 2: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 3: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Oct 19

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 55-DMA capping the recovery from 92.496

and the index left looking offered. Bears continue to look for a close below

92.496 to add weight to the case for a test of 2017 lows although initially

focus shifts to 91.526-781. Bulls still need a close above the 55-DMA to shift

initial focus to 93.839-165 where the 21-DMA is located. Correcting O/S studies

remain the key concern for bears but the 55-DMA remains key.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 To Target 2017 Highs

*RES 4: 2.558 - Low Mar 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 2.437 - High Nov 30

*PRICE: 2.408 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Nov 30 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.374 - Hourly support Nov 29 

*SUP 3: 2.356 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.310 - Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA failed to produce a break lower with the

close above the 21-DMA Wednesday now seeing bulls initially focused on 2.477 Oct

highs. Bulls look for a close above this level to target 2.544-2.628 where 2017

highs are situated. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence.

Bears now need a close below 2.401 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA

to shift focus back to 2.273-3.305.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $56.75 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $59.85 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $58.97 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $58.37 - Hourly resistance Nov 27

*PRICE: $57.60 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.96 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $56.75 - Low Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Monday negated Friday's gains with focus now on the

$56.75-96 support region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears need a close below

$56.75 to shift immediate focus to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to $53.06-97

where the 55-DMA ($53.88) and bull channel base ($53.97) reside. The $58.37

resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to return pressure to

2017 highs once more.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressure On Channel Base & 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1299.1 - High Nov 27 

*RES 3: $1293.6 - Hourly support Nov 29 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1288.4 - Hourly resistance Nov 29 

*RES 1: $1285.4 - High Nov 30

*PRICE: $1275.3 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 2: $1267.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1266.7 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1263.4 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA ($1282.3) took its toll with a break below

that sees immediate focus back on the $1260.2-1269.9 region where the 200-DMA.

bull channel base off Dec 20 2916 lows and Bollinger base are situated. Bears

now need a close below $1243.4 to confirm focus on retests of 2017 lows. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls need a close above $1288.4

to ease bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]