MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $1.2037 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 1: $1.1931 High Nov 30

*PRICE: $1.1867 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1831 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $1.1813 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 3: $1.1771 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1713 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: $1.1813 confirmed significance with Thursday's bounce retaining the

integrity of the daily bull channel base although topside follow through has

been lacking with the pair correcting back towards the channel base. The 55-DMA

is key support today. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below $1.1690 to confirm initial focus on $1.1552 Nov

lows. Above $1.1961 is needed to reconfirm focus on $1.2033-92.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3373-1.3427 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 1: $1.3521 Hourly resistance Dec 1

*PRICE: $1.3465 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3427 Low Dec 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3373 Hourly support Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3265 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7week highs lacked follow through last week as the pair

flirts with the LT weekly bear channel top around $1.3440. Bulls look for a

weekly close above to shift focus to $1.3656-1.3833 where 2017 highs are

located. The $1.3373-1.3427 support is key today. Bears need a close below to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to $1.3165-1.3265 where key DMAS are

noted. Bulls need a close above $1.3595 to add support to their case.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Close Above Y113.33 To Target Y114.72

*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y114.42 Hourly resistance Nov 6a 

*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 1: Y113.33 High Nov 16

*PRICE: Y112.74 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.30 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*SUP 2: Y111.82 Hourly support Dec 1 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Friday saw a recovery from a dip below the 200-DMA (Y111.68) to

flirt with the 55-DMA (Y112.74). Bulls take comfort in Friday's bounce with

focus remaining on Y113.33. Bulls need a close above this level to add support

to the case for a move initially targeting Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears look for a

close below Y111.82 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below Y110.83 to

end bullish hopes, initially targeting Y109.52 with overall focus on 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 1: Y134.05 Hourly support Dec 1 now resistance

*PRICE: Y133.80 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.51 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.91 Low Dec 1 

*SUP 3: Y132.72 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y132.56 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2017 highs is less than ideal for bulls who

currently look for a close above 2017 highs to shift overall focus to the

Y139.02-141.04 region last seen in 2015. Bulls will need a close above Y136.95

to add support to their case. The 21-DMA is key support today. Bears need a

close below the 21-DMA to return pressure to the Y130.59-71 region where the

bull channel base off Aug lows and 100-DMA (Y131.55) are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8717 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8944 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8873 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High Dec 1

*PRICE: Gbp0.8811 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8774 Low Nov 30 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8729 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8649 Monthly Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8956) & bear channel top

have resulted in dips below the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8796) but so far follow through

has been lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and shift focus back to Gbp0.8944-81 where the bear channel top

and 100-DMA are noted. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8717 to reconfirm a bearish

bias and target Gbp0.8478-88 where the bear channel base and 100-WMA are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7519 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7736 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7691 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7644 - High Nov 28

*PRICE: $0.7603 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7550 - Low Dec 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7535 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bears have failed to produce the close

below $0.7519 needed to reconfirm focus on tests of $0.7319-32 where the daily

bear channel base is situated. The $0.7644 resistance remains key. Bulls need a

close above to confirm a break of the bear channel top ($0.7591) and 21-DMA

($0.7612), shifting immediate bullish focus to the 200-DMA and then $0.7730-68

with the 55-DMA at $0.7736.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above

21-DMA

*RES 4: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 2: 93.610 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.245 - High Dec 1

*PRICE: 93.112 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.952 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*SUP 2: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 4: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 55-DMA capping the recovery from 92.496

and the index left looking offered. Bears continue to look for a close below

92.496 to add weight to the case for a test of 2017 lows although initially

focus shifts to 91.526-781. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA (93.748) to

shift initial focus to 94.165. Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for

bears but the 21-DMA is now key.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.273 & 2.477 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 2.558 - Low Mar 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 2.437 - High Nov 30

*PRICE: 2.404 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.373 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.310 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 3: 2.304 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.282 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.477 Oct highs remain key with the yield rejected aggressively

ahead of this level Friday. Bulls look for a close above this level to target

2.544-2.628 where 2017 highs are situated. Volatility saw support levels taken

out before bouncing ahead of the 200-DMA. The 2.273 support remains key. Bears

need a close below to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to

2.171-185 where the 200-WMA is noted.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $56.75 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $59.96 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $59.01 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $58.40 - Hourly resistance Dec 1

*PRICE: $57.94 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.52 - Hourly support Dec 1 

*SUP 2: $57.15 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $56.75 - Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: $55.75 - Low Nov 20

*COMMENTARY: Dips remained support around the 21-DMA last week but the lack of

topside follow through is a concern for bulls who now look for a close above

$59.05 to reconfirm the bullish bias overall targeting the 200-WMA ($60.41).

Bears need a close below $56.75 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting

immediate focus to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to $53.96-54.08 where the

55-DMA ($54.02) and bull channel base ($54.08) reside.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Oct Lows Remain Key Support

*RES 4: $1299.1 - High Nov 27 

*RES 3: $1293.6 - Hourly support Nov 29 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1289.3 - High Dec 1 

*RES 1: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1

*PRICE: $1274.5 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 2: $1268.4 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1266.9 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1263.1 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the $1260.2-1269.9 region where the 200-DMA

bull channel base off Dec 20 2916 lows and Bollinger base are situated has so

far failed to produce a break lower. Bears still need a close below $1243.4 to

confirm focus on retests of 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh

leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $1289.3 to ease bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]