MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Confirm Correction

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 2: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 1: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1836 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1797 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1767 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel top ($1.2066) capped last week and now sees

the pair trading below the channel base ($1.1861) and pressuring key DMAs. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below $1.1690 to confirm initial focus on $1.1552 Nov lows. Layers

of resistance are weighing with bulls needing a close above $1.1884 to ease

bearish pressure.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3489 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 3: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 2: $1.3489 Hourly support Dec 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3460 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3421 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3369 Low Dec 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3263 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3208 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7week highs lacked follow through last week as the pair

flirts with the LT weekly bear channel top around $1.3440. Bulls look for a

weekly close above to hint at a move to $1.3656-1.3833 where 2017 highs are

located with a close above $1.3549 to add support to their case. Follow through

was lacking on Tuesday's sell-off but bulls now look for a close above $1.3489

to reconfirm focus on layers of resistance $1.3549-1.3656.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.30

*RES 4: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 3: Y113.10 High Dec 4 

*RES 2: Y112.87 High Dec 5 

*RES 1: Y112.30 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Y112.14 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.82 Hourly support Dec 1 

*SUP 2: Y111.66 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y112.30 rings alarm bells for bulls with bears needing

a close below Y112.30 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below Y110.83 to

end bullish hopes, initially targeting Y109.52 with overall focus on 2017 lows.

Bulls now need a close above Y112.30 today to gain breathing room and above

Y112.87 to return pressure to Y113.33. Bulls need a close above Y113.33 to add

support to the case for a move initially targeting Y114.72 Nov highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Support Today

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y134.05 Hourly support Dec 1 now resistance

*RES 2: Y133.74 Hourly support Dec 1 now resistance

*RES 1: Y133.21 Hourly resistance Dec 6

*PRICE: Y132.75 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.63 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.80 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: Y131.62 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.21 Low Nov 23

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2017 highs Friday was less than ideal for

bulls who currently look for a close above 2017 highs to shift overall focus to

the Y139.02-141.04 region last seen in 2015. Bulls will need a close above

Y136.95 to add support to their case. The 21-DMA remains key support. Bears need

a close below the 21-DMA to return pressure to the Y130.59-80 region where the

bull channel base off Aug lows and 100-DMA (Y131.63) are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8717 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8933 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8824 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8818 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8788 Hourly support Dec 4 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8753 Low Dec 4 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8729 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures have resulted in dips below the 200-DMA

(Gbp0.8799) but follow through remains lacking. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

Gbp0.8933-81 where the bear channel top and 100-DMA are noted. Bears need a

close below Gbp0.8717 to reconfirm a bearish bias and target Gbp0.8467-80 where

the bear channel base, 100-WMA & May lows are situated.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Remains Lacking

*RES 4: $0.7673 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: $0.7654 - High Dec 5

*RES 2: $0.7636 - Hourly support Dec 5a now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7598 - Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7578 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7550 - Low Dec 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7537 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7644 resistance lacked follow through Tuesday

with the correction lower leaving resistance layers in its wake and retaining

focus on the $0.7519-50 support region. Bears look for a close below $0.7519 to

reconfirm focus on $0.7319-84 where the redrawn daily bear channel base

($0.7384) is situated. Overall bulls need a close above $0.7768 to end bearish

hopes and above the 100-DMA ($0.7824) to focus on $0.7906.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Now Key Resistance

*RES 4: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 2: 93.653 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.606 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 93.201 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.952 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*SUP 2: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 4: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to key DMAs with bulls now needing a

close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus to

94.165 and overall focus to 95.167-464 where monthly highs are located. While

the 55-DMA caps bears retain the advantage but now need a close below 92.952 to

reconfirm initial focus on the break of 92.496 needed to shift overall focus

back to 2017 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.273 & 2.477 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.424 - High Dec 1 

*RES 1: 2.395 - High Dec 5

*PRICE: 2.346 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.343 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.330 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.283 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of last week's high has left the yield looking heavy

and focus back on layers of support. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.273 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.171-185 where the

200-WMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above Tuesday's high to ease bearish

pressure and above 2.477 Oct highs to target 2.544-2.628 where 2017 highs are

situated.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $56.75 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 3: $58.94 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $58.40 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 1: $58.02 - Hourly resistance Dec 4

*PRICE: $57.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.08 - Low Dec 5 

*SUP 2: $56.75 - Low Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Dips remained support around the 21-DMA last week but the lack of

topside follow through is a concern for bulls who look for a close above $59.05

to reconfirm the bullish bias overall targeting the 200-WMA ($60.41). Bears need

a close below $56.75 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting immediate focus

to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to $53.96-54.30 where the 55-DMA ($54.26)

and bull channel base ($54.30) reside.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Oct Lows Remain Key Support

*RES 4: $1293.6 - Hourly support Nov 29 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1289.3 - High Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1266.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 

*SUP 2: $1256.1 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1251.0 - Monthly Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: $1243.4 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the bull channel base ($1263.4) and 200-DMA ($1267.0)

Tuesday lacked follow through with support emerging ahead of Oct lows. Bears

need a close below $1260.1 to confirm breaks of the channel base and 200-DMA

with overall focus shifting to 2017 lows. Bears will then need a close below

$1243.4 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1277.9 to

ease renewed bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]