MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring Key 55-DMA Support

*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1848 High Dec 6

*PRICE: $1.1800 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1764 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel top ($1.2066) capped last week and now sees

the pair gaining traction below the channel base ($1.1875) and pressuring key

DMAs. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below $1.1690 to confirm initial focus on $1.1552 Nov

lows. Bulls now look for a close above $1.1848 to gain breathing room and above

$1.1884 to shift focus back to $1.1940-61.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Focused On 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3489 Hourly support Dec 4 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3460 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3398 Hourly resistance Dec 7

*PRICE: $1.3380 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3355 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 2: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3258 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3208 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy as lower daily highs and lows continue with

bearish focus now on the $1.3258-1.3333 support region where 55 & 21-DMAs are

situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Layers of

resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a weekly close above $1.3489

to confirm a break of the LT bear channel top ($1.34440) and reconfirm focus on

$1.3549-1.3656.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.87

*RES 4: Y113.90 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 2: Y113.10 High Dec 4 

*RES 1: Y112.87 High Dec 5

*PRICE: Y112.44 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support

*SUP 2: Y112.09 Daily Bull channel base (Off Nov 28 low) 

*SUP 3: Y111.82 Hourly support Dec 1 

*SUP 4: Y111.66 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from the channel base sees bulls gaining a little

confidence. In saying that, a lack of follow through above the 55-DMA (Y112.75)

sees bulls needing a close above Y112.87 to reconfirm focus on Y113.33. Bulls

need a close above Y113.33 to add support to the case for a move initially

targeting Y114.72 Nov highs. While Y112.87 caps bears retain the advantage with

a close below Y110.83 to end bullish hopes, initially targeting Y109.52.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On Y130.59-131.86

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y134.05 Hourly support Dec 1a now resistance

*RES 2: Y133.74 Hourly support Dec 1 now resistance

*RES 1: Y133.21 High Dec 6

*PRICE: Y132.66 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.86 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: Y131.65 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.21 Low Nov 23 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2017 highs Friday was less than ideal for

bulls with the marginal close below the 21-DMA (Y132.64) shifting focus back to

Y130.59-131.86 where the bull channel base, 100-DMA and Nov lows are situated.

Layers of resistance are building and weighing with bulls now needing a close

above Y133.21 to return focus to 2017 highs. Bulls then need a close above 2017

highs to shift overall focus to the Y139.02-141.04 region last seen in 2015.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8717 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8953 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8928 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8871 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8818 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8801 Hourly support Dec 6 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8753 Low Dec 4 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8729 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures above the 100-DMA and bear channel top resulted in

dips below the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8800) but follow through remains lacking. Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift

focus back to Gbp0.8922-81 where the bear channel top and 100-DMA are noted.

Bears need a close below Gbp0.8717 to reconfirm a bearish bias and target

Gbp0.8462-88 where the bear channel base, 100-WMA & May lows are situated.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7519 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7654 - High Dec 5

*RES 3: $0.7636 - Hourly support Dec 5a now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7598 - Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7569 - Hourly resistance Dec 7

*PRICE: $0.7544 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7535 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - Low June 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7365 - Low May 12

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7644 resistance lacked follow through Tuesday

with the correction lower leaving resistance layers in its wake and retaining

focus on the key $0.7519 support. Bears look for a close below $0.7519 to

reconfirm focus on $0.7319-68 where the redrawn daily bear channel base

($0.7368) is situated. Bulls now need a close above $0.7598 to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7653 to shift focus to $0.7690-0.7768.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Above 55-DMA Initially Targets 94.165

*RES 4: 94.582 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 94.165 - High Nov 21 

*RES 2: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 1: 93.686 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 93.538 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.488 - High Dec 5 now support

*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*SUP 4: 92.952 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to key DMAs with bulls needing a close

above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus to 94.165 and

overall focus to 95.167-464 where monthly highs are located. While the 55-DMA

caps bears retain the advantage but now need a close below 93.035 to shift

pressure back to the 92.496-604 region where Nov lows are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.273 To Target 2.171-185

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 3: 2.424 - High Dec 1 

*RES 2: 2.395 - High Dec 5 

*RES 1: 2.363 - High Dec 6

*PRICE: 2.344 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.283 - 100-DMA, 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of last week's high left the yield looking heavy and

focus back on layers of support. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.273

to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.171-185 where the 200-WMA

is noted. Bulls now need a close above Wednesday's high to ease bearish pressure

and above 2.437 to initially target 2.477 Oct highs.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $57.08 Resistance Now Key 

*RES 4: $58.02 - Hourly resistance Dec 4 

*RES 3: $57.57 - High Dec 6 

*RES 2: $57.08 - Low Dec 5 now resistance, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $56.43 - Hourly resistance Dec 6

*PRICE: $56.17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 2: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14 

*SUP 3: $54.41 - Daily bull channel base (Aug 31 low) 

*SUP 4: $54.32 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and pressure on the 21-DMA took

its toll with a close below the key $56.75 support seeing focus shift to the

$53.96-55.00 region where the bull channel base and 55-DMA are situated. Below

$53.06 is now needed to pressure 100 ($52.00) & 200 ($50.93) DMAs. The $57.08

resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above this level to ease bearish

pressure and shift focus back to $58.02-59.05.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Oct Lows Remain Key Support

*RES 4: $1293.6 - Hourly support Nov 29 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1289.3 - High Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1263.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 

*SUP 2: $1256.1 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1251.0 - Monthly Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: $1243.4 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Gold continues to oscillate around the 200-DMA ($1267.2) and the

bull channel base ($1264.8) with bears needing a close below $1260.1 to confirm

breaks with overall focus shifting to 2017 lows. Bears will then look for a

close below $1243.4 to add weight to their case. Bulls now look for a close

above $1269.9 to ease bearish pressure and above $1277.9 to return focus to

$1299.1 Nov monthly highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]