MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1924-61

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 2: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 1: $1.1924 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: $1.1866 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1862 Hourly resistance Dec 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1827 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 4: $1.1775 Low Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $1.1690 level

provided the base for a move that sees the pair flirting with the $1.1884

resistance. Bulls now focus on the $1.1924-61 region with a close above shifting

focus to $1.2033-1.2092 2017 highs. Daily studies are well placed for gains.

Bears now need a close below $1.1827 to ease bullish pressure and see focus

return to the key $1.1690 support.

     CABLE TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 3: $1.3462 High Dec 14 

*RES 2: $1.3418 High Dec 18 

*RES 1: $1.3378 Hourly resistance Dec 20

*PRICE: $1.3360 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 2: $1.3264 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3204 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3128 Low Nov 15

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 is struggling with the pair

looking a little offered as resistance layers build. Bears need a close below

$1.3300 to pressure $1.3204-64 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are

noted. Below the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037 where the

200-DMA ($1.3009) is located. Bulls need a close above $1.3462 to gain breathing

room and above $1.3549 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs ($1.3656).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Returns to Y113.74-114.07

*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 1: Y113.74 High Dec 12

*PRICE: Y113.37 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.86 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.49 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the marginal close

above the 55-DMA Tuesday seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls

look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs.

Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a

close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus On Y139.02-141.05

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 1: Y134.73 2017 High Dec 20

*PRICE: Y134.51 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 4: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs open up for a potential move targeting

monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y134.60) is the key concern for

bulls. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears now needing a

close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the key

Y130.59-132.40 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted.

Immediate bullish focus shifts to Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8826-56 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8939 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8889 Hourly resistance Dec 21

*PRICE: Gbp0.8879 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8856 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the pair gaining traction above the 55-DMA

(Gbp0.8869) as it currently flirts with the bear channel top (Gbp0.8876). Bulls

now focus on Gbp0.8922-81 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above

Gbp0.8981 to shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. Initial support is now

noted at Gbp0.8856 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and

below Gbp0.8826 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key

*RES 4: $0.7785 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7667 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 sees the pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs.

Layers of resistance remain $0.7692-0.7785 with bulls needing a close above the

100-DMA ($0.7785) to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key supports remain with

bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish pressure and

below $0.7580 to return initial focus to $0.7482-00 where the weekly bull

channel base is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key

*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 93.775 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.535 - High Dec 20

*PRICE: 93.394 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*SUP 3: 93.012 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA

(93.356) with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on supports.

Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a close

below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls now look for a close

above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a

bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.502) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Rally Targeting 2017 High

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 1: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)

*PRICE: 2.481 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to

2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed

for gains. Layers of support are building and providing bulls confidence. Bears

now look for a close below 2.423 to ease immediate bullish pressure and confirm

a correction back to 2.344-374.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Above $58.99 Targets $60.25-62.45 

*RES 4: $60.25 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $58.60 - High Dec 12 

*RES 1: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12

*PRICE: $58.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.86 - Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: $57.20 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 3: $56.88 - Low Dec 18 

*SUP 4: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards $55.88 now sees

bulls focused on $58.60-58.99 with a break targeting the 200-WMA and channel

tops ($60.41-62.45). Layers of support building add to bullish confidence with a

close below $57.86 now needed to ease renewed bullish pressure. A close below

$55.15 remains needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($55.47) and initially

target 52.77-54.07.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1249.2-1259.2 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1281.0 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1275.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1267.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1259.2 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 3: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back

towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are

noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below

$1259.2 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to

$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to

add to confidence.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]