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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
3 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 2017 High
*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014
*RES 1: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8
*PRICE: $1.2049 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2026 High Dec 29 now support
*SUP 2: $1.1981 Hourly support Dec 29
*SUP 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support
*COMMENTARY: Gains continue to start the new year although hesitation ahead of
2017 highs is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B
and the Bollinger band top ($1.2053). Bulls continue to look for a close above
the current 2017 high to initially target $1.2254. Layers of support are
accumulating but $1.1961 remains key. Bears need a close below $1.1961 to ease
bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690.
CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3538
*RES 4: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.4010 Low June 16 2016 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3828 Low Feb 29 2016 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20
*PRICE: $1.3512 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3567 Hourly resistance Jan 2 now support
*SUP 2: $1.3538 Hourly support Jan 2
*SUP 3: $1.3473 Hourly breakout level Dec 29
*SUP 4: $1.3429 High Dec 27 now support
*COMMENTARY: Immediate bullish focus remains on 2017 highs with a close above to
shift focus to layers of resistance $1.3828-1.4349. The Bollinger top ($1.3568)
is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers of
support are following the pair higher and adding to bullish confidence. Bears
now look for a close below $1.3538 to ease bullish pressure.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y110.83 Targets 2017 Low
*RES 4: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*RES 3: Y113.44 High Dec 22
*RES 2: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance
*RES 1: Y112.46 Low Dec 29 now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.30 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*SUP 2: Y111.66 200-DMA
*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having dipped towards the Y111.98 support
with the Y110.83-111.98 support region the current focus. Bears then need a
close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). Layers of resistance are
accumulating and daily studies are well placed for further losses. Bulls
continue to look for a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and hint at a
correction back to Y113.74-114.07.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015
*RES 2: Y135.96 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*PRICE: Y135.31 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.91 Low Jan 2
*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27
*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs continue, adding support for a potential move
targeting Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.96) & O/B studies are key concerns
for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears needing a close
below Y134.91 to ease bullish pressure and below Y133.88 to shift focus back to
Y132.03-132.83 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted. Immediate
bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Confirms Significance
*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 2: Gbp0.8921 100-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8884 Hourly resistance Jan 3
*PRICE: Gbp0.8861 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8855 Hourly support Jan 2
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance with the pair capped and
rejected aggressively ahead of this level, leaving the pair looking heavy and
flirting with the 55-DMA (Gbp0.8859). Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to
confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus
back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.
Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to target Gbp0.8981-0.9048.
AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Bullish Focus On $7906
*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21
*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22
*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7857 - 200-WMA
*PRICE: $0.7809 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27
*SUP 2: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7696 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the recovery from Dec lows closing above the
100-DMA ($0.7775) and shifting overall focus to 2017 highs. Bulls now look for a
close above $0.7906 to add support to their case. Key supports remain with bears
needing a close below $0.7760 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close
below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to
$0.7495-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Remains Heavy
*RES 4: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance
*RES 3: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28
*RES 2: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance
*RES 1: 92.080 - Low Dec 29 now resistance
*PRICE: 91.907 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 91.751 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 2: 91.526 - Low Oct 19
*SUP 3: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8
*SUP 4: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull
channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus
to tests of 2017 lows. O/S daily studies are less than ideal for bears. Bulls
now look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above
the 55-DMA (93.677) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to
95.167-464.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17
*RES 3: 2.530 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)
*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21
*RES 1: 2.481 - High Jan 2
*PRICE: 2.462 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.411 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 2.381 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a
bounce to start the new year. Bulls now look for a close above 2.504 to confirm
focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain with
bears now needing a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a test of the 200-DMA with
below 2.344 to confirm. The Bollinger top (2.513) remains the key concern for
bulls.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1302.5
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13
*RES 1: $1321.3 - Hourly resistance Jan 3
*PRICE: $1313.7 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1310.0 - Hourly support Jan 2
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29
*SUP 4: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA
and bear channel top and a pop above $1320.0 in Asia today. O/B daily studies
and the Bollinger top ($1314.4) are concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close
below Tuesday's low to ease pressure on resistance layers and below the 100-DMA
($1287.7) to hint at a deeper correction. Bulls potentially target 2017 highs
while $1302.5 supports.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Flirting with 200-WMA
*RES 4: $63.42 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low)
*RES 3: $62.18 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 2: $61.85 - High May 13 2015
*RES 1: $60.91 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low)
*PRICE: $60.35 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $59.82 - Low Dec 29
*SUP 2: $59.33 - Low Dec 27
*SUP 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support
*SUP 4: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close
above $58.99 with the contract flirting with the 200-WMA ($60.05). Bulls look
for a close above the bull channel top off June lows to initially target
$61.85-63.42 where monthly highs and the bull channel top off Oct lows are
noted. Bears now look for a close below $59.82 to ease bullish pressure and
below the 21-DMA to pressure the 55-DMA ($56.56).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.