MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead of 2017 High For Now

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 1: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*PRICE: $1.2071 @ 0530MT

*SUP 1: $1.2038 Hourly resistance Dec 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1991 Hourly support Dec 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 2017 highs is less than ideal given

daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the Bollinger top ($1.2101). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the current 2017 high to initially target

$1.2254. Layers of support are accumulating but $1.1961 remains key. Bears need

a close below $1.1961 to confirm a correction and shift initial focus to key

DMAs $1.1799-1.1886.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3491 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3828 Low Feb 29 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 

*RES 1: $1.3581 Hourly support Jan 3a now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3563 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3529 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.3491 Low Jan 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3538 Hourly support Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3456 High Dec 28 now support

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from fresh 4mth highs was less than ideal for

bulls who are currently focused on 2017 highs. The Bollinger top ($1.3583)

remains a concern for bulls and limits follow through. Bears look for a close

below $1.3491 to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate pressure to the

21-DMA. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a

close above $1.3581 to reconfirm focus on $1.3612-56.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.13 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 1: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.84 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.45 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.68 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the Y111.98-112.12 region where the 100-DMA is

located bears have failed to produce a close below with the recovery seeing

focus back on the Y113.13 resistance. Bulls need a close above Y113.13 to ease

bearish pressure and shift initial focus back to Y113.74-114.07. Bears now need

a close below Y112.45 to retain pressure on the key Y110.83-111.98 support

region where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y135.61 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y141.05 Monthly High June 4 2015

*RES 3: Y140.65 High June 18 2015

*RES 2: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 1: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*PRICE: Y136.22 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.97 Hourly support Jan 4 

*SUP 2: Y135.61 High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y134.78 Low Jan 3 

*SUP 4: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs continue to add support to the bullish case for

a move targeting monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y136.44) & O/B

studies are key concerns for bulls. Layers of support continue to build with

bears now needing a close below Y135.61 to ease bullish pressure and below

Y134.78 to shift focus back to Y133.88-134.25 where the 21-DMA is located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9107 Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8917 100-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8899 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8853 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance with the pair capped and

rejected aggressively ahead of this level, resulting in a dip back to the

21-DMA. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close

above the 100-DMA to confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 2: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 1: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7699 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the recovery from Dec lows closing above the

100-DMA ($0.7774) and shifting overall focus to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a

close above $0.7906 to add support to their case. Key supports remain with bears

needing a close below $0.7802 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close

below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to

$0.7495-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.261-518 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 

*RES 2: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.261 - High Jan 3

*PRICE: 91.869 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 91.751 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 3: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus

to tests of 2017 lows. O/S daily studies looking to correct are less than ideal

for bears. Bulls now look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above the 55-DMA (93.631) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and

overall focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.530 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 2.487 - High Jan 4

*PRICE: 2.458 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.419 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.386 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.504 to

confirm focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain

and hint at a test of the 200-DMA with below 2.344 to confirm with bears now

needing a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bulls Focused On $63.70-65.17 

*RES 4: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $63.70 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 2: $62.58 - 2015 High May 6 2015 

*RES 1: $62.21 - High Jan 4

*PRICE: $61.96 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $61.59 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: $61.23 - Hourly support Jan 3 

*SUP 3: $60.77 - Hourly support Jan 3a 

*SUP 4: $59.82 - Low Dec 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $60.06 continue. O/B

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears now need a close below $61.23 to ease bullish pressure and below $59.82 to

shift immediate focus back to the bull channel base ($58.46) & 21-DMA ($58.67).

Bulls currently focus on the bull channel top and the $65.17 resistance above

while $61.59 supports.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2017 High

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1334.8 - High Sept 13

*PRICE: $1321.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1316.9 - Hourly resistance Jan 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1288.4 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above $1321.3 that reconfirms

dominance and focus on $1357.5-1374.9 where 2016 & 2017 highs are situated. O/B

daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that, bears continue

to look for a close below $1302.5 to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA

to hint at a deeper sell-off with below the 55-DMA ($1277.8) confirming.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]