MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2322 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 1: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*PRICE: $1.2194 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2165 Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs has

resulted in a break of the $1.2186 support which is a concern when combined with

daily momentum divergence. The $1.2075 support is now key with bears needing a

close below to shift focus back to $1.1846-1.2020 where key DMAs are noted.

Bulls now need a close above $1.2322 to reconfirm focus on the LT bear channel

top $1.2690.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3739

*RES 4: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4006 Low June 16 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3942 2018 Highs Jan 17 

*RES 1: $1.3840 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*PRICE: $1.3816 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3739 Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $1.3700 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3643 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3585 High Jan 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth highs continue but the lack of topside follow

through is weighing. The $1.3739 support is key today. Bears need a close below

this level to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift initial focus to

$1.3555-1.3643 where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls now look for a close above

$1.3840 to gain breathing room and above $1.4006 to initially target

$1.4349-1.4410 where the 200-WMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.97 & Y111.98 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: Y112.56 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y112.30 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.71 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y111.39 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.97 High Jan 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y110.56 Hourly resistance Jan 16 now support 

*SUP 3: Y110.18 Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 4: Y109.65 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with lows lacking follow

through so far this week and the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Bulls

now need a close above Y111.98 to shift focus to Y112.86-113.44 although DMAs

Y112.29-56 may slow the move. Bears now look for a close below Y110.97 to ease

pressure on resistance layers and reconfirm focus on tests of the bear channel

base.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 1: Y136.09 High Jan 16

*PRICE: Y135.81 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.44 Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: Y134.98 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off found support around the 21-WMA and ahead of the

100-DMA (Y133.04) with the recovery seeing initial focus back on 2018 highs.

While the 100-DMA supports overall bullish focus remains on 139.02-141.05 where

monthly highs are noted. Bears still need a close back below Y134.81 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Below the

100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Focus Back On Gbp0.8690-0.8790

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8867 Hourly resistance Jan 17 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8855 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support Jan 10 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8820 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8884) and

rejections ahead of Gbp0.8928 resulted in a sell-off and closes below key DMAs

that sees focus back on Gbp0.8690-0.8790. Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8690

to reconfirm a bearish bias and target tests of Gbp0.8313-80 where 2017 lows are

noted. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8867 to ease renewed bearish pressure.

Above Gbp0.8928 shifts initial focus to Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7916

*RES 4: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 2: $0.8022 - 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 1: $0.7994 - Hourly resistance Jan 18

*PRICE: $0.7958 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Wednesday's 2018 & 4mth highs which

is a concern with daily studies looking to correct from O/S and daily momentum

divergence. Bears take comfort on the break of $0.7959 but now need a close

below $0.7916 to target a correction back to $0.7773-0.7825 where the 21 &

100-DMAs are noted. While $0.7916 supports bulls remain focused on 2017 highs

and then $0.8295 2015 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bullish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 91.879 - High Jan 12 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.915 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.544 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 3: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 4: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal has seen immediate pressure return to

the 91.011 resistance. Bulls need a close above 91.011 to ease bearish pressure

and above 91.879 to hint at a correction back to 92.140-93.164 where key DMAs

are clustered. Bears now need a close below 90.544 to ease pressure on 91.011

and retain overall focus on tests of the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. Correcting

O/S studies increase correction risk.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.597 Initially Targets 2.629-692

*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10

*PRICE: 2.589 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.541 - Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 3: 2.522 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 2.477-522 support region has provided the base for bounce back

towards 2018 highs and the double daily top. Bulls look for a close above 2.597

to reconfirm focus on 2.629-692 where yearly and monthly highs are located. O/B

daily studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below 2.571

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.522 to pressure the 21-DMA (2.488).

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) $62.95 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 2: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance, Bollinger top 

*RES 1: $64.83 - 2018 High Jan 16

*PRICE: $64.14 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.25 - Low Jan 17 

*SUP 2: $62.95 - Low Jan 10 

*SUP 3: $62.53 - Hourly resistance Jan 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the most recent 2018 high is

a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies overdue a correction and

the Bollinger band top ($65.57) recently capping. Bears still look for a close

below $62.95 to ease bullish pressure and below $60.75 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA ($61.08) and shift initial focus back to $58.50-82 where the 55-DMA is

noted. Above $65.17 targets $69.54-73.25.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: $1331.6 - Low Jan 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $1325.8 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1307.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Gold was rejected ahead of recent 2018 highs Wednesday with the

sell-off leaving it looking a little heavy following the break of $1326.6. Bears

look for a close below this level to target a correction back to $1302.5-1305.6.

Momentum studies have corrected to neutral levels but other studies correcting

from O/B weigh. Bulls now need a close above $1344.5 to reconfirm focus on 2017

and then 2016 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]