MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2156 & 1.2322 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2322 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 1: $1.2295 High Jan 19

*PRICE: $1.2263 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation continues and is less than ideal for bulls given

daily studies overdue a correction from O/B. Bears need a close below $1.2156 to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA ($1.2076) to shift

focus back to $1.1853-1.1914 where key DMAs are noted. Bulls need a close above

$1.2322 to reconfirm focus on the LT bear channel top $1.2686.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.4006 Initially Targets 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.4612 Low June 21 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4397 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4006 Low June 16 2016 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3984 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3971 Hourly resistance Jan 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3928 Hourly resistance Jan 22a now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3837 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 4: $1.3739 Low Jan 16

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the $1.4006 resistance with bulls needing a

close above to initially target $1.4349-1.4397 where the 200-WMA is noted. Daily

studies remain at O/B levels which is the key concern for bulls. Layers of

support are building and adding to confidence. Bears now need a close below

$1.3928 to gain breathing room and below $1.3837 to hint at a correction back to

$1.3585-1.3656 where the 21-DMA ($1.3639) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y112.32 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.75 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y111.48 High Jan 18

*PRICE: Y110.80 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.49 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: Y109.55 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: Y109.52 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of the 200-DMA (Y111.76) last week left the

pair looking a little heavy and focus back on layers of support Y109.52-110.18.

Bears now look for a close below Y109.52 to add weight to the case for a test of

2017 lows. O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears. Bulls need a close

above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA (Y112.39) to

confirm initial focus on Y112.86-113.44.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Supporting, Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.68 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.85 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.18 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery form dips below the 55-DMA and channel base in recent

weeks sees the pair supported ahead of the 21-DMA. The Y134.81 support remains

key. Bears still need a close below Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift

focus back to the 21-WMA (133.37) and 100-DMA (Y133.20). Below the 100-DMA

shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03. While Y134.81 supports immediate focus is on the

close above Y136.62 needed to confirm focus on Y139.02-141.05.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 200-DMA Capping, Looking Offered

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8872 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8839 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8768 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8568 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8872) and

rejections ahead of Gbp0.8928 resulted in a sell-off and closes below key DMAs

that sees focus back on Gbp0.8690-0.8759. Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8690

to reconfirm a bearish bias and target tests of Gbp0.8313-80 where 2017 lows are

noted. Bulls now need a close above the 200-DMA to ease renewed bearish

pressure. Above Gbp0.8928 shifts initial focus to Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: O/B Studies Remain Key Concern

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 1: $0.8038 - 2018 High Jan 19

*PRICE: $0.7987 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was again lacking on Friday's 2018 & 4mth highs

which is a concern with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. The break of

$0.7959 lacked follow through Thursday with bears now needing a close below

$0.7916 to target a correction back to $0.7774-0.7874 where the 100-DMA is

noted. While $0.7916 supports bulls remain focused on 2017 highs and then

$0.8295 2015 highs on a close above.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.011-751 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.346 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 2: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 3: 89.769 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues with the index remaining capped ahead of

the 91.011 resistance. Bulls need a close above 91.011 to ease bearish pressure

and above 91.751 now to hint at a correction back to 92.640-93.051 where key

DMAs are clustered. Bears still need a close below 90.113 to retain overall

focus on tests of the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. O/S daily studies looking to

correct increase correction risk.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.692 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 1: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014

*PRICE: 2.648 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.632 - Low Jan 22 

*SUP 2: 2.613 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs see immediate bullish focus on 2.692

last seen mid 2014. Bulls look for a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on

2.763-821 where the daily bull channel top is situated. O/B studies and the

Bollinger top (2.670) remain concerns for bulls. Bears need a close below 2.613

to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.571 to hint at a correction back

to 2.489-522 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Below 21-DMA To Shift Focus Lower 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 3: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $64.83 - 2018 High Jan 16 

*RES 1: $64.28 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: $63.97 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $62.53 - Hourly resistance Jan 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $61.92 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips so far this week provides bulls comfort

but a close above $65.17 remains needed to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting

$69.54-73.25 last seen in 2014. Layers of support remain in place. Bears now

need a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to the

55-DMA ($58.99). Correcting O/B studies remain a concern for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1315.4 To Target $1289.5-1293.5

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: $1338.0 - High Jan 19

*PRICE: $1335.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $1317.2 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Gold was rejected ahead of recent 2018 highs last Wed with the

sell-off so far lacking follow through and bulls takin comfort in recovering

lost ground. Momentum studies have corrected to neutral levels but other studies

are correcting from O/B. Bulls need a close above $1344.5 to reconfirm focus on

2017 and then 2016 highs. Bears now look for a close below $1315.4 to target

$1289.5-1293.5 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]